DBWI: George H.W. Bush loses re-election in 1992

As for Kerry winning wothout the crash? I doubt it. Putting aside that the seeds for the crash were planted as far back as Jimmy Carter, Kerry was a trainwreck, everywhere from his handling of Katrina to Afghanistan. Not to mention he was a rapid fire gaffe machine.

At the end of the day, he was a deeply unpopular, uncharismatic President running against a successful Governor who was the son of a beloved former President. He was going to lose badly, the economy was just kicking the man while he was on the mat.

True. A lot of my friends, people who voted for him back in 2004, say that he was trying to much to be like Mario Cuomo, but ended up biting him in the ass. He tried so desperately to capture the energy of the Cuomo administration because Democrats were trying to run Vice President Ann Richards as the first woman presidential nominee, but couldn’t due to her ongoing health problems. However, he failed to distinguish himself as a unique candidate with unique ideas. He just kept going on and on about carrying on Cuomo’s legacy. It’s no wonder he lost Democratic strongholds like Washington, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota during his re-election bid in 2008.
 
The public can be very fickle. President Huntsman is popular now, but if the economy dips before his reelection bid comes around, he's going to be the GOP version of Kerry

Although according to this CNN article, it's looking quite likely at this point; sadly, the economy didn't really rebound all that well after the housing crisis, and as this expert economist argues, we may well have been overdue since 2015, perhaps even a bit earlier.

Do you guys think that these two factions within the Democratic Party will screw their chances at the White House in 2020?

Not really. As this article from the Atlantic points out, the Justice Democrats actually don't have that much in terms of a hardcore rivalry with the "Third Way" faction, compared to what some pundits in the media have been claiming.

 
Although according to this CNN article, it's looking quite likely at this point; sadly, the economy didn't really rebound all that well after the housing crisis, and as this expert economist argues, we may well have been overdue since 2015, perhaps even a bit earlier.



Not really. As this article from the Atlantic points out, the Justice Democrats actually don't have that much in terms of a hardcore rivalry with the "Third Way" faction, compared to what some pundits in the media have been claiming.

Unfortunately, that’s the thing about the economy. Whoever’s in charge, no matter how small, seems to get the blame for a bad economy. We’ll have to see what happens in the coming years.

As for the Justice and Third Way Democrats, I would say that, come Election time, even though they don’t show it now, the differences in their ideologies for what they want for America will rear its ugly head. I wouldn’t be surprised if things got heated on the debate stage.
 
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A question just came to me: had the economy not ranked towards the tail end of 2007, do you guys think Kerry would have been re-elected?

OOC: Just trying to keep fruitful conversation going.

Kerry wouldn't have made it either way. I think he lost the Presidency when those veterans associations started running the "Cowardice of Kerry" campaign against him. The economy definitely didn't help him out, it was kind of like Carter in 80', he was running against such a good candidate during the largest economic depression since 1929.

Unfortunately, that’s the thing about the economy. Whoever’s in charge, no matter how small, seems to get the blame for a bad economy. We’ll have to see what happens in the coming years.

As for the Justice and Third Way Democrats, I would say that, come Election time, even though they don’t show it now, the differences in their ideologies for what they want for America will rear its ugly head. I wouldn’t be surprised if things got heated on the debate stage.

I totally agree. The economy is something you don't want to claim credit for, it can bite you in the ass as easy as it can hand you a win.

The Democrats are definitely ready for a fight. A Civil War has been brewing for years, and not even Senator Obama and his charisma can stop it. I think that Senator Warren announcing she won't run is just her way of handing the baton to Bernie.

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Any ideas for the two major tickets this year? How about the chances of the Constitution Party keeping their vote share high?
 
Any ideas for the two major tickets this year? How about the chances of the Constitution Party keeping their vote share high?

I’m predicting Obama/Harris for the Dems, Huntsman’s gonna get renominated...as for the Constitution Party, hard to say. They’re past the peak they hit with Ron Paul in ‘08 and ‘12 for sure but I think they have a floor of at least 5%, maybe up to 10%. I think Palin is gonna get the nod this time (given what a bust Cruz was doubt it’ll be Rand Paul).
 
I’m predicting Obama/Harris for the Dems, Huntsman’s gonna get renominated...as for the Constitution Party, hard to say. They’re past the peak they hit with Ron Paul in ‘08 and ‘12 for sure but I think they have a floor of at least 5%, maybe up to 10%. I think Palin is gonna get the nod this time (given what a bust Cruz was doubt it’ll be Rand Paul).

I think they'll need a Cruz type to help out with the... um... to put it lightly "intellect problem" that Palin has been shown to have in interviews. She seems like she's just what the CP is looking for, although maybe a little too gaffe-prone. Maybe Mike Huckabee could help balance it out. If it does go to Palin and Obama/Harris does become a thing, I'm going to be going for Huntsman/Haley.

(OOC: I'm sorry if I got the VP wrong, correct me if I did, but I think that Haley would be a likely choice for VP if we haven't already picked one out)
 
Kerry wouldn't have made it either way. I think he lost the Presidency when those veterans associations started running the "Cowardice of Kerry" campaign against him. The economy definitely didn't help him out, it was kind of like Carter in 80', he was running against such a good candidate during the largest economic depression since 1929.

The Democrats are definitely ready for a fight. A Civil War has been brewing for years, and not even Senator Obama and his charisma can stop it. I think that Senator Warren announcing she won't run is just her way of handing the baton to Bernie.

I remember that campaign. Veterans despised the way Kerry handled the VA Department. And I wasn’t totally surprised about how Warren announced she wouldn’t run. I mean, she failed to beat Huntsman in 2016 in the general, so I wouldn’t see her attempting another run.
 
I think they'll need a Cruz type to help out with the... um... to put it lightly "intellect problem" that Palin has been shown to have in interviews. She seems like she's just what the CP is looking for, although maybe a little too gaffe-prone. Maybe Mike Huckabee could help balance it out. If it does go to Palin and Obama/Harris does become a thing, I'm going to be going for Huntsman/Haley.

(OOC: I'm sorry if I got the VP wrong, correct me if I did, but I think that Haley would be a likely choice for VP if we haven't already picked one out)

To be honest, I’m not sure the Constitution Party will get the votes necessary to remain competitive. Only half of the 50 states have ballot access for them, so I can’t really see them making a sizable dent.

OOC: I always did like the idea of Nikki Haley as Vice President. I think she would be a more conservative candidate for Huntsman to balance the ticket with. I wouldn’t mind her unless anyone else has a better candidate in mind.
 
To be honest, I’m not sure the Constitution Party will get the votes necessary to remain competitive. Only half of the 50 states have ballot access for them, so I can’t really see them making a sizable dent.

OOC: I always did like the idea of Nikki Haley as Vice President. I think she would be a more conservative candidate for Huntsman to balance the ticket with. I wouldn’t mind her unless anyone else has a better candidate in mind.

I don’t think anybody is expecting them to get more than 10% at the very, very most. There’s only so many voters in places like Arkansas and Wyoming. Their breakthrough was obviously 2008, and they’ve been cruising on that success since then.

(OOC: That’s what I thought. A younger southern minority woman with stronger conservative values could balance out the western, moderate Huntsman.)
 
The Democrats are definitely ready for a fight. A Civil War has been brewing for years, and not even Senator Obama and his charisma can stop it. I think that Senator Warren announcing she won't run is just her way of handing the baton to Bernie.
OOC: Seriously? A civil war? Do you mean within the party or an actual one?
 
OOC: Within the party. They’ve now lost 3 straight elections, and nobody knows the direction the party is going in.

OOC: I find it pretty likely. The Republican Party had one of sorts in 2016 OTL with people like Trump, Cruz, and Jeb! openly fighting within the GOP ranks. Given that the situation ITTL is flipped, I would expect the same, maybe not on such a vitriolic level IOTL.
 
I think 2020 is going to be a poison chalice. Whomever wins in 2020 will lose big time in 2024.

You can never truly pinpoint how things are going to go. One minute, the economy is great and your on path towards reelection. The next, the whole damn thing bottoms out and you’re left to pick up the pieces while trying to figure out what the Hell went wrong. Just like Bush in 1991. The economy was doing great, he was at 89% approval, then the recession hit, and if it weren’t for Clinton’s scandal, he would have lost.
 
Do you guys think the moderate wing of the Republican Party would’ve been able to survive today without Bush’s re-election?

Of course. Mitt Romney, John McCain, Jeb Bush, ect., would all still have influence, and I can see the moderate wing at least splitting control for decades to come. The conservatives seem a little too much like Attila the Hun to ever succeed.
 
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