DBWI: George H.W. Bush loses re-election in 1992

I just came back from the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library, and I have to say, I’m quite astounded by what I saw. I mean, here’s a guy that took what seemed to be his election to lose in 1992, and somehow, managed to turn it all around in his second term. He’s constantly rated as one of the best presidents in recent memory.

It got me thinking, and I want to see what others think, of what might have been had Bill Clinton actually beat George H.W. Bush in 1992. What would our country be like had we had a Democrat in the White House during the 1990’s economic boom.

OOC: The POD here is that the sexual assault allegations against Bill Clinton come to light during the 1992 election, causing the Arkansas Governor to lose in the slimmest of electoral margins to the sitting Republican President. As a result, Bush receives much of the credit for the economic boom and rapid American GDP growth that occurred during the 1990’s.

This is my first alternate history of any kind, so bear with me on this one.
 
Clinton would likely have been a single-termer. He's just got too much baggage (and that's assuming he doesn't do anything while actually in office). I would presume 1996 would see the GOP not nominate Quayle as they did OTL (which to be fair was also the result of many other contenders correctly assuming 1996 was going to be a Dem year, the only question being whether it'd be Biden's, Gephardt's or Gore's). Instead, we'd see some credible Republican rival run for the job-possibly Gingrich, Kemp or McCain.

The GOP would likely be weaker despite this though. The Republicans have held the presidency for a total of 28 years since 1980.
 
For one, we wouldn't have President Mario Cuomo from 1997-2005. In OTL Cuomo wisely waited out 1992, sensing that he could not beat the more popular Bush. After narrowly winning a fourth term as New York's Governor, Cuomo finally jumped into the Presidential primaries and won after a fierce contest. Instead, the more centrist DLC Democrat Bill Clinton would be President in 1993. Since he advocated welfare reform and supported NAFTA, I don't see him governing much differently from Bush or any other moderate Republican. However, Clinton would have been reelected thanks to the good economy and relative peace since the Cold War is now over. And his running mate, Al Gore, would be set up to win in 2000 much like Bush in 1988. Unless...perhaps Clinton's promiscuity gets the better of him and a scandal breaks out that hurts Gore. But really, if a guy has enough self-control to distance himself from past scandals and win the Presidency, I'm sure he could survive two terms without I don't know impeachment or something. C'mon, what could possibly happen?
 
Quayle, I will digress, kind of got lucky in 1996 with that 384-154 landslide over Mario Cuomo. He mainly piggybacked off the economic success of Bush’s second term, but I guess that’s what a good candidate does.

You got that reversed, nice wishful thinking though and saying there was economic success in the mid-nineties? You would have to be a billionaire to think that way because everyone else got screwed. The enduring lesson of the nineties, rich men buying private jets don't make an economy.
 
For one, we wouldn't have President Mario Cuomo from 1997-2005. In OTL Cuomo wisely waited out 1992, sensing that he could not beat the more popular Bush. After narrowly winning a fourth term as New York's Governor, Cuomo finally jumped into the Presidential primaries and won after a fierce contest. Instead, the more centrist DLC Democrat Bill Clinton would be President in 1993. Since he advocated welfare reform and supported NAFTA, I don't see him governing much differently from Bush or any other moderate Republican. However, Clinton would have been reelected thanks to the good economy and relative peace since the Cold War is now over. And his running mate, Al Gore, would be set up to win in 2000 much like Bush in 1988. Unless...perhaps Clinton's promiscuity gets the better of him and a scandal breaks out that hurts Gore. But really, if a guy has enough self-control to distance himself from past scandals and win the Presidency, I'm sure he could survive two terms without I don't know impeachment or something. C'mon, what could possibly happen?

Honestly, looking back on it, I was actually surprised that Cuomo managed to pull out such an upset victory. I mean, after such a great four years during Bush’s second term, the Republicans basically HANDED the Presidency to Quayle. Too bad he couldn’t stack up to Cuomo’s intellect and track record in New York, despite 8 years as Vice President.
 
You got that reversed, nice wishful thinking though and saying there was economic success in the mid-nineties? You would have to be a billionaire to think that way because everyone else got screwed. The enduring lesson of the nineties, rich men buying private jets don't make an economy.

OOC: Deleted that post since Amadeus posted his reply first.
 
But still would the democrats have become a more progressive party at least economically faster with people like Joe Biden and Douglas Wilder helping to maintain the union vote.
 
But still would the democrats have become a more progressive party at least economically faster with people like Joe Biden and Douglas Wilder helping to maintain the union vote.

That’s true. Hell, much of the union vote went to Cuomo in both 1996 and 2000, so had Bill Clinton won, the Democratic Party would have most likely done the same thing with him in office. Plus, Mario Cuomo has a proven track record of sticking up for the unions as Governor, so it really was no surprise he won them over on a national level.
 
The Republicans have held the presidency for a total of 28 years since 1980.

Timing truly is everything when it comes to politics. Had John Kerry not been elected President in 2004, someone else definitely would’ve gotten the blame for the housing market crisis in 2008. Such a huge blow to his administration that he never recovered from. The Democratic Party is still in recovery from it.
 
Timing truly is everything when it comes to politics. Had John Kerry not been elected President in 2004, someone else definitely would’ve gotten the blame for the housing market crisis in 2008. Such a huge blow to his administration that he never recovered from. The Democratic Party is still in recovery from it.

The public can be very fickle. President Huntsman is popular now, but if the economy dips before his reelection bid comes around, he's going to be the GOP version of Kerry
 
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Hard to see Clinton beating Bush. I mean the kinder gentler form of conservatism worked well and he handled Iraq and the Gulf War so well. Perot drained so many union voters who normally went democrats with his anti nafta positions
 
The public can be very fickle. President Walker is popular now, but if the economy dips before his reelection bid comes around, he's going to be the GOP version of Kerry

As a Republican myself, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen. The economy is seen by many political analysts as one of the major factors in any Presidential election.
 
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Hard to see Clinton beating Bush. I mean the kinder gentler form of conservatism worked well and he handled Iraq and the Gulf War so well. Perot drained so many union voters who normally went democrats with his anti nafta positions

Yeah, the economy was doing so well up until it receded at just about the absolute WORST time for Bush. Many said he caught a lucky break with the sexual assault allegations against Clinton. Had that not happened, they were predicting a near landslide.
 
Do you guys think that Ross Perot would've run again in 1996 if Clinton won, instead of leaving it to the Richard Lamm/Ed Zschau ticket as IOTL? Personally, I preferred Lamm to Perot, but it wasn't exactly a surprise he had a worse performance. He still managed to land 12% of the popular vote though, so that's an impressive turnout for a third party in of itself.
 
Timing truly is everything when it comes to politics. Had John Kerry not been elected President in 2004, someone else definitely would’ve gotten the blame for the housing market crisis in 2008. Such a huge blow to his administration that he never recovered from. The Democratic Party is still in recovery from it.

Ironic, the party that saved America from the Great Depression lead it into the Great Recession. It took the GOP two decades to recover from the Hoover years, a bad omen for the Dems. Still, the Republicans don't have WWII to carry them to five consecutive terms, obviously they couldn't make it that far even in 1996.
 
Ironic, the party that saved America from the Great Depression lead it into the Great Recession. It took the GOP two decades to recover from the Hoover years, a bad omen for the Dems. Still, the Republicans don't have WWII to carry them to five consecutive terms, obviously they couldn't make it that far even in 1996.

The race between Quayle and Cuomo was close, and the GOP was looking at five straight terms, but Cuomo was just able to connect so damn well with a majority of the country. And again, Dan Quayle is...well, Dan Quayle.

And it is true, the Democratic Party May have to shift their ideology a bit in order to portray a new image for their party, one that doesn’t scream “Great Recession!” everytime they are mentioned.
 

The Avenger

Banned
I just came back from the George H.W. Bush Presidential Library, and I have to say, I’m quite astounded by what I saw. I mean, here’s a guy that took what seemed to be his election to lose in 1992, and somehow, managed to turn it all around in his second term. He’s constantly rated as one of the best presidents in recent memory.

It got me thinking, and I want to see what others think, of what might have been had Bill Clinton actually beat George H.W. Bush in 1992. What would our country be like had we had a Democrat in the White House during the 1990’s economic boom.

OOC: The POD here is that the sexual assault allegations against Bill Clinton come to light during the 1992 election, causing the Arkansas Governor to lose in the slimmest of electoral margins to the sitting Republican President. As a result, Bush receives much of the credit for the economic boom and rapid American GDP growth that occurred during the 1990’s.

This is my first alternate history of any kind, so bear with me on this one.
We dodged a real bullet on that one! Bill Clinton's wife, Hillary, strikes me as being overly ambitious. Indeed, just imagine Bill Clinton serving two terms, followed by a Republican for one or two terms, and then followed by Hillary Clinton for one or two terms! Heck, even their daughter Chelsea could have eventually run for President and created a Clinton presidential dynasty.

Also, it would have been an extreme tragedy to have a sexual assaulter and abuser in the Oval Office! Just imagine what kind of signal that would send to women both in the US and abroad! The President of the US--and a sex offender!
 
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