Common sense from the guy: even at the depth of fascism, he would have faced mass mutinies had such an order been given.
(OOC: eww, I felt dirty writing this)
DBWI: Furthest Hitler could have conquered
- Thread starter ThirdMan2005
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- alternate history dbwi hitler
(OOC: eww, I felt dirty writing this)
Definitely, considering that the unpopularity of the Vertreibung IOTL caused Canaris and the others to launch their failed military coup the following year.
Althistory Bavaria
Banned
You would get major flashbacks from the great war. Germany invading France through the Benelux and being stopped at the Maginot line and before Paris (no way they could break the french lines there). A protracted war of attrition would follow, with Germany being defeated. I think they would fall within one, maybe two years (the Germans don't have strong allies in 1938, no Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Empire, like in the great war).
Maybe Germany invades Poland and Czechoslovakia at the same time, and/or the US joins the war on the Ententes side, but then the Nazis would only die faster.
I think the post-war world wouldn't be much different than OTL. Once the Nazis start loosing the war, there will still be a communist revolution (supported by even more people than OTL, after another brutal trench war), akin to the november revolution of 1918.
Maybe Germany invades Poland and Czechoslovakia at the same time, and/or the US joins the war on the Ententes side, but then the Nazis would only die faster.
I think the post-war world wouldn't be much different than OTL. Once the Nazis start loosing the war, there will still be a communist revolution (supported by even more people than OTL, after another brutal trench war), akin to the november revolution of 1918.
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FillyofDelphi
Banned
Exactly why the Nazis aren't going to be going on any mad rampages. Despite their rhetoric and skill at political maneuvering that allowed them to monopolize control over the levers of state power, the Heer was the REAL force holding up the conservative regeime and everybody knew it. Hence the constant attempts to moderate, legitimize, and gradually implinent National Socialist policies si as not to produce a backlash. And considering how many of the brass actually had learned their lessons from the Great War, they'd throw a fit if a survivibg Hitler did ANYTHING that was liable to trigger a war with France.
Not that it's likely he'd try. The man certainly knew how to play people and read circumstances better than Goering ever could. He'd have known where the limits of when and where he could push his agenda.
Hitler's fantasies of conquering all of northern Europe were deranged. He would have to defeat both Britain and the USSR, each of which have an economy the size of Germany. Even if he got Italy on his side, that just offsets the huge advantage France and Russia had against the Germans.
My best-case scenario for the Natsocs would be that France and Britain let Hitler negotiate for the Sudetenland, including all of its forts. Hitler decides to not stop in the Sudetenland and conducts a false flag operation with one of the forts, triggering war between Germany and Czechoslovakia. France and Britain for some reason decide to just let this happen. France isn't too hard to convince, though, as in 1938 the political situation was very anti-war. Hitler takes Czechia and gives Poland Slovakia in exchange for Poland's neutrality. Hitler then conducts a surprise attack on the Netherlands and Belgium and thanks to the additional materiel from the large Czech war industry, he defeats the Dutch easily and moves all the way to Flanders. The Belgians didn't let the French army into their country before the war started, so the French army is still largely in France. Funnily enough, the French OOB in 1939 did not allow for a strategic mobile reserve. They assumed lines would hold. If Hitler's sneak attack gets all the way to Picardy, you could see the French try to shorten their lines by retreating out of the Ardennes in Belgium. Considering the impulse to try to defend their own land, it's not that much of a stretch. Imagine a German encirclement of a significant French force in Picardy and it might be open ground to Paris, like in 1915.
So Hitler has defeated Belgium and the Dutch, and encircled a French Corps and opened the way to Paris. What now? He sends a token company to drive around in Paris and then back to his lines, because going all the way to Paris will open him up for a counter encirclement. The French lines redeploy and congratulations Hitler, you recreated WWI, but this time Germany has no allies.
If anyone doubts the German army could move that fast, you're largely right. The German army wasn't as mechanized as the French one. What allows them to move so fast is that they have a corp of tank divisions, much like the Soviets. People forget that the pre-communist Heer actually had a very forward-thinking high command. They didn't treat tanks like cavalry, but as a way to maintain high tempo operations on a strategic level. Their individual tanks may have been worse, and their infantry divisions were worse than the French, but in any battle of German vs French tanks, the Germans would have a significant numbers advantage. Combine this with the fact that the Germans had radio in their tanks and the French still used flags means that the German Panzer divisions had significantly more strategic and tactical mobility than the forces they would have faced. Assuming that the Germans don't fight the Soviet Union, of course. Problem is that they had very little to follow it up with. By the time they could get their main lines to exploit the encirclements, the French could use their interior lines to redeploy and then there's not much the Germans can do after that, as the French have a more robust economy and an ally with a large army and even bigger air force and navy just across the Channel.
The German economy would probably collapse after a year or maybe two of fighting. It's Germany so I wouldn't underestimate their ability to produce men or materiel. The problem is that the "Third Reich" was largely financially insolvent even by the time of Hitler's death. They would have run out of specie to trade with by 1940 and then Sweden and Switzerland will stop operating as middle men for the Germans. The Germans would run out of rubber and oil, they would even start running out of food, just like in WWI. People would remember the economic hardships put on them by the Kaiser and see their Fuhrer did the same and the Heer would most likely mutiny. In addition to assassinating Hitler, the army would most likely just storm the Reichstag and announce a military dictatorship to bring peace. We could see another stab-in-the-back myth, but if the military is leading the peace negotiations it would be hard to gain purchase.
My best-case scenario for the Natsocs would be that France and Britain let Hitler negotiate for the Sudetenland, including all of its forts. Hitler decides to not stop in the Sudetenland and conducts a false flag operation with one of the forts, triggering war between Germany and Czechoslovakia. France and Britain for some reason decide to just let this happen. France isn't too hard to convince, though, as in 1938 the political situation was very anti-war. Hitler takes Czechia and gives Poland Slovakia in exchange for Poland's neutrality. Hitler then conducts a surprise attack on the Netherlands and Belgium and thanks to the additional materiel from the large Czech war industry, he defeats the Dutch easily and moves all the way to Flanders. The Belgians didn't let the French army into their country before the war started, so the French army is still largely in France. Funnily enough, the French OOB in 1939 did not allow for a strategic mobile reserve. They assumed lines would hold. If Hitler's sneak attack gets all the way to Picardy, you could see the French try to shorten their lines by retreating out of the Ardennes in Belgium. Considering the impulse to try to defend their own land, it's not that much of a stretch. Imagine a German encirclement of a significant French force in Picardy and it might be open ground to Paris, like in 1915.
So Hitler has defeated Belgium and the Dutch, and encircled a French Corps and opened the way to Paris. What now? He sends a token company to drive around in Paris and then back to his lines, because going all the way to Paris will open him up for a counter encirclement. The French lines redeploy and congratulations Hitler, you recreated WWI, but this time Germany has no allies.
If anyone doubts the German army could move that fast, you're largely right. The German army wasn't as mechanized as the French one. What allows them to move so fast is that they have a corp of tank divisions, much like the Soviets. People forget that the pre-communist Heer actually had a very forward-thinking high command. They didn't treat tanks like cavalry, but as a way to maintain high tempo operations on a strategic level. Their individual tanks may have been worse, and their infantry divisions were worse than the French, but in any battle of German vs French tanks, the Germans would have a significant numbers advantage. Combine this with the fact that the Germans had radio in their tanks and the French still used flags means that the German Panzer divisions had significantly more strategic and tactical mobility than the forces they would have faced. Assuming that the Germans don't fight the Soviet Union, of course. Problem is that they had very little to follow it up with. By the time they could get their main lines to exploit the encirclements, the French could use their interior lines to redeploy and then there's not much the Germans can do after that, as the French have a more robust economy and an ally with a large army and even bigger air force and navy just across the Channel.
The German economy would probably collapse after a year or maybe two of fighting. It's Germany so I wouldn't underestimate their ability to produce men or materiel. The problem is that the "Third Reich" was largely financially insolvent even by the time of Hitler's death. They would have run out of specie to trade with by 1940 and then Sweden and Switzerland will stop operating as middle men for the Germans. The Germans would run out of rubber and oil, they would even start running out of food, just like in WWI. People would remember the economic hardships put on them by the Kaiser and see their Fuhrer did the same and the Heer would most likely mutiny. In addition to assassinating Hitler, the army would most likely just storm the Reichstag and announce a military dictatorship to bring peace. We could see another stab-in-the-back myth, but if the military is leading the peace negotiations it would be hard to gain purchase.
That wasn’t the French plan. The French plan was to advance to a continuous defensive line that was anchored on the Albert Canal, Meuse River, and the Maginot. If the Belgians don’t allow the French into the country beforehand which considering the character of King Albert wasn’t particularly likely then the French backup plan was to hold along the Franco Belgian border along a series of fortications. There was a more offensively minded plan in case of Belgian neutrality based more on the possibility of the Belgians dithering with the alliance which called for an advance to the Gembleux gap to hold a defensive line on IIRC the Dyle River but even that plan left the French 7th Army as a mobile reserve.
You also seriously under estimate the effectiveness of the French Light Mech divisions and you don’t even factor in the BEF so no that isn’t likely at all. Just look at the German performance on the Sudeten rising in 43 they got their asses handily beaten by the Czech-French mechanized force before beating a hasty retreat