DBWI: Franz Ferdinand assassinated in 1914

I was just reading a biography about Emperor Franz Ferdinand the other day when I found an interesting incident: in the June of 1914 when Ferdinand made a trip to Sarajevo, Serbian terrorists tried to assasinate the then-archduke. The first group of terrorists tried bombing his car, which bounced off the cover, and another one of the terrorists went to a cafe which was right by where Ferdinand was driving, and never noticed him. So what if that other terrorist noticed Ferdinand and shot him? How would the Austrians respond to his assassination?

(OOC: The POD is that Franz Ferdinand's driver doesn't make a wrong turn, so Princip never notices him.)
 
I imagine the Serbians would be so scared shitless of being curbstomped by AH that they'll find everyone associated with the plot and throw them to the wolves. Although Russia has always been Serbia's guardian I can't imagine Nicholas II being prepared to go to war in aid of people who had killed an heir to a throne. The whole incident would have prevented FF's reforms that modernised and strengthened the Hapsburg Empire, without them it would probably have collapsed after Franz Josef's death.
 
WWI, sadly, was inevitable at this point as the Third Balkan War went worldwide in November, 1914. All the murder of the Archduke would've done is move the timetable slightly forward.
 
The Austrians would have demanded all mebers of the terrorist organization the Black Hand be handed over to them, a very large payment, and certain economic and political concessions. Serbia would have been terrified and would have agreed to whatever conditions the Austrians demanded.
 
The Austrians would have demanded all members of the terrorist organization the Black Hand be handed over to them, a very large payment, and certain economic and political concessions. Serbia would have been terrified and would have agreed to whatever conditions the Austrians demanded.


Exactly. In other words, nothing much would have happened.

Close thread.
 
Are you kidding me? This would have stopped the modernization and democratization of Austria-Hungary, this would have also definately provoked war with Serbia which have a huge affect on the Balkans!

No way would there have been a war.

It's one thing to risk an assassination, it's something very different to risk a war with a major European power. Serbia would never have dared.

The absolute worst case scenario would be a short war lasting a few months that would not have had a major impact either on Austria - Hungary or the Balkans. No one was going to support a terrorist state that had just murdered Austria - Hungary's heir apparent.
 
No way would there have been a war.

It's one thing to risk an assassination, it's something very different to risk a war with a major European power. Serbia would never have dared.

The absolute worst case scenario would be a short war lasting a few months that would not have had a major impact either on Austria - Hungary or the Balkans. No one was going to support a terrorist state that had just murdered Austria - Hungary's heir apparent.

Okay maybe that is an overstatement but his death would still mean a probable disilution of the Empire, he was able to keep it together through a federal system that most found pleasing. Had it been a more conservative heir less willing for compromise then things could have boiled over.
 
At least it ended in 1916 though.

Serbia's involvement did, in July. Other than that, the war lasted until January, 1919.

@eliphas: Sure, A-H was democratic......until the civil war in 1934, that is. Then the Nazi government under Hitler and Himmler took over Austria in '36 and turned all the rest of the Empire into puppet states. Croatia, in particular, was under a very nasty regime, and many Jews and Roma met tragic fates at the hands of the far-right Ustasi state militia.
 
Given Austria-Hungary was already seeing Hungary move to become a state of its own and had been going down that route since the Ausgleich, Franz-Ferdinand dead would have made no difference. Franz-Josef, after all, would still retain the Throne until 1916 and that would have ensured trouble. The man was in his eighties, after all, he's not going to change anything.
 
WWI, sadly, was inevitable at this point as the Third Balkan War went worldwide in November, 1914. All the murder of the Archduke would've done is move the timetable slightly forward.

Britain probably would have been sucked in right from the beginning, as the Troubles in Ireland between the "Unionist" terrorists and the Crown hadn't started at that point and would certainly would have affected the Empire's ability to fight the war had they become involved right away. To top it off, the British (and later probably the Americans if anyone was dumb enough to provoke them) would have been allied to the French, rather than at war with them...

As it was, it was the French doctrine of unrestricted submarine warfare that brought both Great Britain and the United States into the war in 1917. The French attempt at strangling the German economy by denying them the raw materials needed first destroyed the Anglo-French 'Entente Cordialle' and then led to the defeat of the Franco-Russian alliance.

A victorious France in 1919... No French Workers' Republic, so no radicalization of the German establishment, so no Nazis. And because of that, no Great War, no Holocaust, no blitz, and neither Manchester nor Dortmund get nuked.
 
Nothing much would have happened, Monarchs get assassinated all the time, and Franz isn't wasn't exactly popular at the time. At worst, the Austrians go to war with the Serbians, at best everyone has a nice summer.
 
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