DBWI: Francoist Spain remained neutral during WWII

[Ellie]

Shortly after the Spanish Civil War, Francisco Franco promised unconditional military support for Nazi Germany and Italy in the event of war. After all, they helped him get into power, and he owed them, many believed.

This promise continued until the summer of 1940 when Spain launched its disastrous invasion of France and Morocco, a result of poor planning due to the single year of peace.

What if Spain remained neutral? Would the nationalist regime live on, or would it succumb to the success of communism? Which specific events during the war led to Spain's defeat?

 

[I want to learn]

Perhaps the Allies would focus their efforts on knocking Italy out of the war instead of Spain. Maybe that will free up the resources to launch D-Day in 1943, instead of 1944.

I can't imagine a neutral Spain staying under Franco's control for long after the end of WW2. An continuing fascist state in Europe? The Allies aren't going to let that happen. If Spain doesn't democratize and join the Western block, there will be a second Spanish Civil War, except this time the Soviets are going to be shipping MK-46*s to the insurgents and Franco won't have the benefit of the Condor Legion et al.


*(OOC: ATL version of the AK-47)

 

[Ellie]

Perhaps the Allies would focus their efforts on knocking Italy out of the war instead of Spain. Maybe that will free up the resources to launch D-Day in 1943, instead of 1944.

I can't imagine a neutral Spain staying under Franco's control for long after the end of WW2. An continuing fascist state in Europe? The Allies aren't going to let that happen. If Spain doesn't democratize and join the Western block, there will be a second Spanish Civil War, except this time the Soviets are going to be shipping MK-46*s to the insurgents and Franco won't have the benefit of the Condor Legion et al.


*(OOC: ATL version of the AK-47)

What if Spain DID survive? Maybe Franco would appoint an ideologically close successor, thus making the nationalalist regime persist to the modern day. Wouldn't that be interesting?

 

[MattII]

Well they might have been able to avert the second civil war, so the place might have been something of a reasonable country these days rather than the nearly third-world country it is.

OOC: @I want to learn, the Spanish are not going to be sticking around long enough to need to be booted out of the war, native food production was at a dearth at the time, so entering the war on Germany's side would have meant famine some time during 1942.

 

[I want to learn]

What if Spain DID survive? Maybe Franco would appoint an ideologically close successor, thus making the nationalalist regime persist to the modern day. Wouldn't that be interesting?

Look at the example of the People's Republic of Hokkaido. President Gore made it a priority to take down that hellhole after the end of the Cold War. Like the PRH, once the fascists in Spain lose their great power sponsor, they'll fall from power. Perhaps the government will lean rightwards, but it would be ASB for the Allies who fought a crusade against fascism to leave an honest-to-goodenss fascist state intact after World War Two. We democratized all communist states after the Cold War whether or not they were aligned with the USSR, didn't we?

 

[I want to learn]

OOC: @I want to learn, the Spanish are not going to be sticking around long enough to need to be booted out of the war, native food production was at a dearth at the time, so entering the war on Germany's side would have meant famine some time during 1942.

OOC: My ATL personality is somewhat overestimating the impact Spain had. I'm imagining in the ATL, Spain basically gets wrapped up in the same time as OTL Operation Torch, and then the war proceeds more or less the same, plus some butterflies.

 

[Emote Control]

OOC: Actually, Francoist Spain was neutral in name only in OTL -- they sent "volunteers" to fight for Germany in the later parts of the war, and gave the Germans any intelligence they came across. The famed papers-bearing corpse of Operation Mincemeat was set adrift off the coast of Spain for exactly this reason.

 

[MattII]

And the US was even less neutral, even prior to PH, Spain was neutral with Axis leanings, whereas the US was neutral but firmly pro-allies, at least until it got formally involved.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Look at the example of the People's Republic of Hokkaido. President Gore made it a priority to take down that hellhole after the end of the Cold War. Like the PRH, once the fascists in Spain lose their great power sponsor, they'll fall from power. Perhaps the government will lean rightwards, but it would be ASB for the Allies who fought a crusade against fascism to leave an honest-to-goodenss fascist state intact after World War Two. We democratized all communist states after the Cold War whether or not they were aligned with the USSR, didn't we?

I'd suggest this would have occured through economic pressure combined with support of the loyalist insurgency. Odds are Francos government could not hold together its coalition of monarchists, hard core facists, conservative Catholics, ect... Since the post war Allies would have no desire to see the Communists or other leftists regain any traction in Spain they would probablly midwife a agreement between the non facist factions of Spain & assorted center/left groups to establish a new arraignment. This is not to say a bloodless change would occur, but that it would not require Allied armies 'invading' Spain & fighting a Franco led Spanish army.