DBWI: France suprised in the Ardennes

What if the French were surprised in the Ardennes instead of ready for the German assault with everything entrenched, AAA and artillery fully manned? Instead of Germans disregarding reports that the French were ready have the French disregard reports that the Germans were coming. I have heard some say if the Germans weren't so mauled in the opening stages of the war they might have gotten to the outskirts of Paris before they got stopped. Personally I see that as somewhat fanciful.
 
France might have had a rude awakening about the shortcomings in their armored forces. I doubt the Germans would get so far as Paris, but they would wreak havoc on the way. In OTL, the French were lucky that they were ready and waiting, and only afterwards figured out how badly off they were by not having radios in all their tanks, as well as not having their armor concentrated. The Germans did both, and caused the French some scary moments in the battle. If they had caught the French by surprise with that huge armored force.... it would have been pretty hard to keep that force from moving into the country a long ways and doing a lot of damage in the meantime...
 
France might have had a rude awakening about the shortcomings in their armored forces. I doubt the Germans would get so far as Paris, but they would wreak havoc on the way. In OTL, the French were lucky that they were ready and waiting, and only afterwards figured out how badly off they were by not having radios in all their tanks, as well as not having their armor concentrated. The Germans did both, and caused the French some scary moments in the battle. If they had caught the French by surprise with that huge armored force.... it would have been pretty hard to keep that force from moving into the country a long ways and doing a lot of damage in the meantime...

After which Stalin attacked a very weakend Gemany in August. I think he figured he could smash Germany and France in turn. It was good for everyone that Churchill convinced Roosevelt to start giving military equipment to France at a very reduced prices. It got worse for the Soviets when the Nazis were overthrown due to the fact that Hitler was apparently outsmarted by a "subhuman" Slav. Being outnumbered is one thing but being outsmarted by people who you were saying were "subhuman" is really humilitating. After which the French started to give weapons to the German underground movement and the Communists started leaving with Stalin claiming the overthrow of the Nazis is all he was looking for. This was clearly to save face since it was no less then 3 months after the revolt that the Soviets started withdrawing.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Frankly, I think this POD is bordering on ASB territory. How on Earth could the French have been surprised? Do you really think anyone could be so incompetent as not to notice hundreds o tanks moving through the area? Get real.
 
Frankly, I think this POD is bordering on ASB territory. How on Earth could the French have been surprised? Do you really think anyone could be so incompetent as not to notice hundreds o tanks moving through the area? Get real.

I agree. The French had one of the best armies in the world, led by able generals with war experience from 22 years before. They simply wouldn't have left part of their line unguarded. They had the same capability in tanks as Germany, so would no what sort of terrain was possible for tanks to transit.
 
Frankly, I think this POD is bordering on ASB territory. How on Earth could the French have been surprised? Do you really think anyone could be so incompetent as not to notice hundreds o tanks moving through the area? Get real.

True, one might as well ask "What if the Japanese fleet had surprised the Americans at Pearl Harbor?"
 
True, one might as well ask "What if the Japanese fleet had surprised the Americans at Pearl Harbor?"

Do you mean a surprise aerial attack on docked ships? After Tarranto? Impossible, once everyone sees it happen once, noone will be unprepared for the same type of attack.
 
Perhaps a more plausible POD is Macarthur surprised in the Phillipines. Maybe the early capture of the archipelago could help offset the evisceration of the Japanese naval airforce at Pearl Harbor.

The best the Germans could hope for in the Ardennes, though, is a draw. Perhaps that changes the whole character of the Two Years War. Perhaps we could see a stalemate, with attacks raging up and down the Maginot Line. That would look an awful lot like the Great War. In a stalemated war like that, could we see the survival of Communism, or would simply be ASB by this point?
 
Perhaps a more plausible POD is Macarthur surprised in the Phillipines. Maybe the early capture of the archipelago could help offset the evisceration of the Japanese naval airforce at Pearl Harbor.

The best the Germans could hope for in the Ardennes, though, is a draw. Perhaps that changes the whole character of the Two Years War. Perhaps we could see a stalemate, with attacks raging up and down the Maginot Line. That would look an awful lot like the Great War. In a stalemated war like that, could we see the survival of Communism, or would simply be ASB by this point?

I suppose it might be *possible* with a stalemate along the Maginot line that Stalin's troops could've smashed through the Germans and met up with French armor at the Maginot line. If the stalemate had gone on long enough, with American arms pouring in, perhaps the Soviets and the Allies would've reached some sort of accord to split Germany between them.
 
I suppose it might be *possible* with a stalemate along the Maginot line that Stalin's troops could've smashed through the Germans and met up with French armor at the Maginot line. If the stalemate had gone on long enough, with American arms pouring in, perhaps the Soviets and the Allies would've reached some sort of accord to split Germany between them.

Doubtful, neither Roosevelt or Churchill trusted Stalin and France needed British and American help to rebuild after the war. It might have been short but the Germans did a good deal of damage to the area they did conquer.
 
Doubtful, neither Roosevelt or Churchill trusted Stalin and France needed British and American help to rebuild after the war. It might have been short but the Germans did a good deal of damage to the area they did conquer.

Oh I don't dispute that. All I'm saying is that Stalin had enough personnel available that the Allies *might* have been willing to agree to a partition treaty just to avoid an even longer Maginot line stalemate against the Soviets a la WWI. Obviously it's not likely but since when do we deal with likely? ;)

EDIT: The Allies' strategy in this case would've been defined by the quote, "It's amazing how much 'mature wisdom' resembles being too tired." - Heinlein
 
Frankly, I think this POD is bordering on ASB territory. How on Earth could the French have been surprised? Do you really think anyone could be so incompetent as not to notice hundreds o tanks moving through the area? Get real.

it could have happened... one thing often forgotten in the battle is that the French airforce was qualitatively superior to the German one. If the Germans had better planes, they might have been able to drive away all the French recon planes. And the Germans did have superior light recon armored cars and tanks... and the Ardennes is rough forested terrain. If the Germans had control of the air, and were able to neutralize the French scouts in the Ardennes, they could have gotten a jump on the French. Probably not complete surprise, but enough so that their superior tanks would make it a lot further than they did in OTL. Granted, giving the Germans superior planes is quite another POD....
 
it could have happened... one thing often forgotten in the battle is that the French airforce was qualitatively superior to the German one. If the Germans had better planes, they might have been able to drive away all the French recon planes. And the Germans did have superior light recon armored cars and tanks... and the Ardennes is rough forested terrain. If the Germans had control of the air, and were able to neutralize the French scouts in the Ardennes, they could have gotten a jump on the French. Probably not complete surprise, but enough so that their superior tanks would make it a lot further than they did in OTL. Granted, giving the Germans superior planes is quite another POD....

I disagree. Even assuming the Germans somehow have a better Air Force when they start driving off French recon assets the French leadership aren't going to be dumb enough to just sit still and wonder what's going on. On the other hand, since the entire fact that the Germans attacked in the first place would be ASB if it hadn't, in fact, happened, I guess anything is possible. ;)
 
I disagree. Even assuming the Germans somehow have a better Air Force when they start driving off French recon assets the French leadership aren't going to be dumb enough to just sit still and wonder what's going on. On the other hand, since the entire fact that the Germans attacked in the first place would be ASB if it hadn't, in fact, happened, I guess anything is possible. ;)

what I meant was, if the Germans had driven the French air scouts away across the entire front, the attack in the Ardennes could have been a surprise... without any scout planes, the French wouldn't know about any particular attack if the Germans also managed to drive away the French ground scouts as well...

yeah, it's a lot to imagine, but it is within the realm of possibility....
 
what I meant was, if the Germans had driven the French air scouts away across the entire front, the attack in the Ardennes could have been a surprise... without any scout planes, the French wouldn't know about any particular attack if the Germans also managed to drive away the French ground scouts as well...

yeah, it's a lot to imagine, but it is within the realm of possibility....

It is hard to imagine that the Germans could drive away all French ground scouts as well as France had a lot of infantry some of whom knew the land much better then the Germans. That isn't even counting the civilians in the area.
 
It is hard to imagine that the Germans could drive away all French ground scouts as well as France had a lot of infantry some of whom knew the land much better then the Germans. That isn't even counting the civilians in the area.

Assuming that they could prevent scouting only in a limited area where they would attack, wouldn't the French assume that there was an attack planned where they were being prevented from scouting?
 
Assuming that they could prevent scouting only in a limited area where they would attack, wouldn't the French assume that there was an attack planned where they were being prevented from scouting?

True enough, if I were a general in an area where all communication stopped I would assume an all out attack. If both of us can figure that out you would think the professionals on the French General Staff could figure it out.
 
Assuming that they could prevent scouting only in a limited area where they would attack, wouldn't the French assume that there was an attack planned where they were being prevented from scouting?

If you look at my post, you'd notice that I said 'across the entire front'... not just the Ardennes, that'd be silly...
 
How in God's name could the Germans prevent France from doing any scouting along the entire front?

If the French had been outmanuvered and decimated in the Ardennes , it is highly possible that the German Panzerstrategy could have achieved it's full potential- if their panzers had moved fast enough , vast parts of the French army would have been thrown into total chaos - until the Panzers run out of fuel and ammo that is . Still , the French would probably have to dig in behind the Lorie - I doubt that even the capture of Paris would have been enough to force it's surrender , especially as seen by the Soviets grand invasion of Europe in the early 50's , where Zhukov reached Paris before the American Expeditionary forces threw his overextended army out of most of Western Europe( out into Poland) in three months under Patton .
 
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