DBWI: France falls in 6 weeks

Since the Italians did not participate in the war its impossible to prove any "defects", so we really have to assume they would have performed as well as any other military did 1939-1943. The main variable would be the political/strategic goals of the Italian government. By 1940 it was clear that mobilization for war had severe & unavoidable economic costs. So even if Italy had entered the war its government would have had every incentive to limits it stratigic goals in order to keep economic costs from going wild.

As we saw with Spain joining in and getting battered to crap. Whatever the strength of the Italian forces, they were smart to stick it out - and smarter yet to act as a moneylender afterwards. Suddenly Europe decides it's okay to invade Ethiopia after all (which means Italy joining & losing would butterfly away Haile Selassie's influence on African nationalism - also the rastas)

Leaving aside the how, I wonder how a swift and crushing defeat for France would affect the reputation and influence of Philippe Pétain?

The only thing that would damage him is he was the one surrendering. Nobody'd be keeping paintings of him in their houses after that!

And even if the Germans were about to a hundred Sack of Strasbourgs, I think Petain would still shoot himself rather than do that.
 
It seems to be accepted that if the war had gone on longer, then Japan would have joined the Germans.

If we accept this, I wonder what kind of condition South-East Asia would be in. From the end of the Indochina War until the early 1990s, that region was Japan's back-yard, and even now they're still allied, even if their governments aren't subservient to Tokyo...I mean 'amenable to Tokyo's suggestions'. Now in terms of human rights, SE Asia hasn't had an easy time of it - the 'Asian Vanguard' ideology that Japan promoted wasn't quite Naziism, but it was pretty brutal. On the other hand, a combination first of Japanese corporate investment and then neoliberal economic policies have led to major industrial and economic developments across SE Asia. In Vietnam, for instance, the quality of life, employment rates and poverty levels are on a part with many European nations, and Indonesia is basically the new Japan. Would this be true without the set of circumstances that led to how the region is today?

OOC: I imagine Vietnam's regime in particular to be quite like Pinochet's Chile - utterly vile, but one that did lead to economic growth and increased wealth, legacies that have now been inherited by a democratic government.
 
The first thing is that Japan would've gone to war with the Royal Navy. Japan being nearer to our colonies than we were, they're going to take some victories - we could not have defended Shanghai and I doubt Hong Kong either - and we've established France is out, so Germany's probably giving them Indochina as a sweetener. [1] After that, I'm guessing they're screwed at sea. They're facing:

a) The rest of the Royal Navy after initial success, based out of fortified Singapore. (Which will get a bombing but should stand firm)

b) Professional colonial troops in Malaysia, India, Burma.

c) The Dutch navy, who will want to ensure the Dutch East Indies aren't taken post-war.

d) The ongoing US embargoes


Japan would be repulsed. We wouldn't be able to kick our way to the Home Islands with Germany around as well and I doubt we'd want to keep fighting both, so we'd let them have Indochina as long as they've been battered out of everywhere else. Japan was hardline but not stupid enough to not take a good deal.

So Indochina's now directly under Japanese control, so they're the French of this timeline here but in a crapper position. Us, the Yanks, or the Dutch will probably be the Japanese, giving them cash to get a friendly independent government.

Much like parts of Africa, I expect the British colonies to be closely-tied dominions after the common history of fighting off Japan.

Indonesia? The Dutch are gonna get their own Indochina here again but it'll last longer w/out Japan's involvement and there'll be no equivalent of Japan to pump them full of cash for resources. It won't be nice there.


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[1] ITTL's me is assuming there's no Free French colonial presence
 
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