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What if the Portuguese never colonized the island of Formosa?

Maybe a good PoD to do this would be getting them kicked out of Japan, since nanban trade was basically the only reason why they became interested in the island in the first place. Fomosa's geographic position made it not only useful as a trade entrepot but also as a naval base from which they could intercept Spanish and Dutch ships that were trying to undermine Portugal's domination of east asian trade.

so, could we maybe get a Spanish Formosa? What about a Dutch formosa? How would history evolve?

Let me know what you think.
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