DBWI: Formosa not colonized by the Portuguese

What if the Portuguese never colonized the island of Formosa?

Maybe a good PoD to do this would be getting them kicked out of Japan, since nanban trade was basically the only reason why they became interested in the island in the first place. Fomosa's geographic position made it not only useful as a trade entrepot but also as a naval base from which they could intercept Spanish and Dutch ships that were trying to undermine Portugal's domination of east asian trade.

so, could we maybe get a Spanish Formosa? What about a Dutch formosa? How would history evolve?

Let me know what you think.
 
Even if Japan closed it self to trade and new ideas instead of embrace them like it did in OTL, Formosa probably would still be colonized because it's close to the rest of the continent.
 
Even if Japan closed it self to trade and new ideas instead of embrace them like it did in OTL, Formosa probably would still be colonized because it's close to the rest of the continent.

Hum..that's interesting. So we maybe we're looking at a Chinese colonization, then. Or would another european power still take it for some reason?
 
Hum..that's interesting. So we maybe we're looking at a Chinese colonization, then. Or would another european power still take it for some reason?

I doubt Spain would do it, after all they have the Philippines to use as trade spot and naval base and settler colony. Neither would France do it, it was more invested in Continental wars.

The dutch are IMO the most likely option, Formosa would allow them to have a safe port in the travel from Japan to Macao and the Moghul Sultanate

Another strong contender might be the British, likewise using it for trade and a settler colony like the US.

The truly revolutionary idea almost ASB would be a Qin/Ming Formosa. The Chinese haven't been interested in seafaring since the 1400s
 
No real change. The Dutch colonize it, and koxinga takes it from them instead.

Who's Koxinga? Never heard that name? Would the Dutch really let him take the island without a fight

OOC: let's just assume this butterflies Koxinga, as it would be boring if history just went the same as IOTL.
 
This means the Kingdom of Sapa in the Northern half of Luzon does not have allies in their north which are the Portuguese to completely expel the Spanish, they would need assistance from the Kingdom of Maguindanao to expel the Spanish.
 
The Duchy of Mantua would come out of its shell to become the empire on which the sun never sets and it would colonize Formosa, I think we can all agree.
 
Who's Koxinga? Never heard that name? Would the Dutch really let him take the island without a fight

OOC: let's just assume this butterflies Koxinga, as it would be boring if history just went the same as IOTL.

OOC: Why? An overextended Portuguese colony, with a Catholic substrate, seized by the Ming warlord, then conquered by the Qing, would be a weird window into China. And arguably is the most plausible outcome!
 
OOC: Why? An overextended Portuguese colony, with a Catholic substrate, seized by the Ming warlord, then conquered by the Qing, would be a weird window into China. And arguably is the most plausible outcome!

OOC: How exactly would this Taiwan you're envisioning be different from OTL? There's almost nothing left of Dutch colonial legacy in modern-day Taiwan, wouldn't the same thing happen to Portuguese colonial legacy in this scenario? The only thing I imagine being different is that island may have a small catholic arboriginal population. I don't really see this as being different enough to be worth discussing....

As for being "the most plausible outcome" that really depends on a lot of things. It's not minimally unreasonable to assume that Koxinga's escape to the island may be butterflied ITTL, and if Koxinga doesn't take it, then the Qing will have no reason to take it as well. Also, even if Koxinga still tries to takeover Taiwan, there's still a chance the Portuguese may manage to hold it, especially if they have the help of a friendly non-isolationist Japan.
 
Top