DBWI: Fate of Eastern Europe with Mongolian invasion

krieger

Banned
As far as we all know, Mongolians under Great Khan Ogedei planned a great invasion of Poland and Hungary in 1240, but Great Khan died just before the plan was launched. What if he died a year later, when campaign would be already launched? Polish and Hungarian troops were not that good that time, so it seems that Mongols would crush them without a problem. Henry I of Poland (Henry the Pious) would be most likely killed, so Conrad of Mazovia would take Polish throne and murder his nephew, Bolesław. I think that Bela IV would also end up killed, but Mongols wouldn't have enough time to subjugate Hungary, they'd just pillage the shit out of it. Cumans would most likely flee to Hungary, opening their former lands near Danube to settlement of some new people (a sizable part of this land could be taken by Slavs - Ruthenians colonizing from the north or even Polish, but the rest would be empty). It'd be interesting if Romance-speaking so-called "Travellers" or "Wlachs" from Balkan peninsula gathered there (these lands were Roman for a while) and formed a Romance-speaking EE-country, perhaps named "Vallachia"? Also how Conrad taking Polish throne would affect the develompent of Poland? I imagine that sons of Henry the Pious wouldn't be prone to recognize Conrad as their overlord and they'd most likely defect to their Bohemian uncle. Poland would lose Silesia as a result. On the other hand, Conrad and his succesors were campaining against the Balts quite often alongside with TO, which resulted in Mazovian conquest of Jotvingia and they were close to capture of Vilnius, capital of Lithuania. Traidenis was forced to marry his daughter to grandson of Conrad and promise the couple the succesion in Lithuania. He didn't fullfill the promises. I wonder (but it can be borderline ASB) if the Vilnius was captured (because Mazovians have a majority of Poland under their yoke) if something called Polish-Lithuanian union could exist and how would Polish develop, influenced foremost by Ruthenian and now extinct Lithuanian not by German? @Jan Olbracht
 
I think Conrad's rule in Cracow would not last long. As mindless brute he would not be loved in Lesser Poland. I see rebellion against him-perhaps one of Silesian Piasts would be called to Cracow if Bolesław Leszkowic was murdered by uncle?
 

krieger

Banned
I think Conrad's rule in Cracow would not last long. As mindless brute he would not be loved in Lesser Poland. I see rebellion against him-perhaps one of Silesian Piasts would be called to Cracow if Bolesław Leszkowic was murdered by uncle?

Unfortunately, I wouldn't say that it could matter much. Mazovia would be a least devastated part of Poland by raid and Conrad could just purge his opponents, look what he did to Krystyn Gozdawa and Jan Czapla.
 
Silesia going to Bohemia? That would be the case if Boleslaw the Chaste becomes King and adopts one of Ottokar's son by Kunigunde of Slavonia as his own son and that said son also succeeds to Bohemia.
 
What would happen with sons of Henry? IOTL most of them joined clergy except for two oldest. ITTL with their pious dad being killed situation would change. I'm expecting very fragmented Lower Silesia.
 

krieger

Banned
What would happen with sons of Henry? IOTL most of them joined clergy except for two oldest. ITTL with their pious dad being killed situation would change. I'm expecting very fragmented Lower Silesia.

I think they'd ask Wenceslaus I of Bohemia for protection from Conrad.
 
As far as we all know, Mongolians under Great Khan Ogedei planned a great invasion of Poland and Hungary in 1240, but Great Khan died just before the plan was launched. What if he died a year later, when campaign would be already launched?

Except for the exciting subject of picking the different set of the Polish rulers (no offence ;)), and an absence of the immediate looting of the area the difference would be minimal: with the potential exception of the lower Danube region, which could be an attractive settlement area (see below), the whole thing had been planned as a major raid (aka, looting expedition) and not a conquest. So the Mongols would come, burn, loot and turn back. Precise timing of Ogdai's death would define a general scope of their advance but, this is important, unlike other campaigns of conquest, this one did not have a designated owner: Batu's ulus was not going beyond the Kipchak lands and conquered Russian lands and even within these lands his authority was limited: the Russian princes had been vassals of the Great Khan and only the Great Khan had the right to give the yarliks ("certificates" for ruling a specific princedom). The taxes had been collected in the name of the Great Khan (Batu was getting his share as a local ruler). So, for all practical purposes, outside the steppe area which was his ulus, Batu was acting pretty much as a regional administrator or viceroy, if you prefer. However, there was no even attempt to make similar arrangements for the lands to the West (except for sending traditional demands to recognize the Great Khan's authority), which means that conquest was not seriously planned. Hence an absence of interest among the participating princes: some of them tried to abandon the enterprise immediately after the Russian campaign. A traditional story about the campaign being dropped because everybody had been rushing back to Mongolia does not stand to any criticism: even Guyuk appeared in Mongolia couple years later during which period the empire was ruled by his mother, Ogdai's widow, as a regent.

Looting was another issue and it is to be expected that there would the the raids on the smaller scale. However, the very fact that the participating forces would be much smaller would make them vulnerable by the factors which were rather unimportant for a major campaign, small fortifications in the area. The big force could ignore them with the impunity and concentrate on the big cities but for a small force their garrisons would represent a noticeable problem.

The only potential exception were Kipchak-owned lands on the lower Danube. By definition, the Mongols considered all Kipchak lands as their own so one can expect that some of the Genghizides would end up with his own ulus on that territory. However, one can also expect that this ulus would be rather short-lived due to the shortage of the resources. A Mongolian prince would get traditional 4,000 Mongols but, unlike Ulus Juchi, the local nomadic population would be too small for him to become a major power of his own and he would have to rely heavily upon the resources of the Kipchak (Blue) Horde which inevitably puts him into a position of a subordinate ruler.
 
all of Europe except for Italy, Suomi, Scandinavia, the British Isles, insular Danmark, Bornholm, Gotland, Iberia and some part of the Balkans would probably be conquered
 
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