DBWI: Effects on the Cold War if the Soviets don't take France?

So I'm just wondering, how might the Cold War change if the Soviets didn't take France during the Second World War?

I was inspired to make this thread by another poster saying that Soviet France was one of the most ASB moments of OTL?

So how would a Capitalist France effect the ongoing Cold War?
 
Maybe the British Red Scare wouldn't had occured.

Likewise, the French colonial empire would have seen less violence, since the anti-Communists in Africa and Asia would not have resorted to violence against independentists.
 
So I'm just wondering, how might the Cold War change if the Soviets didn't take France during the Second World War?

I was inspired to make this thread by another poster saying that Soviet France was one of the most ASB moments of OTL?

So how would a Capitalist France effect the ongoing Cold War?


I suppose this comes about as the result of a "Sledgehammer" timeline where the US enters the war early enough to push for the landings in France, rather than Churchill's softunderbelly campaign getting the go-ahead for 43 for an attack into Italy and the Balkans out of the cleared North African front? In that case, I imagine the Reds would get into Southeast Europe before the American lead campaign can get out of the channel and into Italy... there was that Tito fellow in Yugoslavia who could have made a decent Quisling, and given how quickly the governments down there defected to the Wallies once boots hit the ground I can't imagine Bulgaria or Greece would be any slower to lick Stalin's boots. Imagine Communist nations on the Adriatic and Aegean,maybe even North Italy... Turkey would be forced to Finlandize I think and you'd have a Red navy in the Eastern Med! That would certainly give the Egyptians a motivation to take a second look at nationalizing the Suez, or give the surpressed Italian reds courage to contests the restored Liberal Royal government inRome which could trigger a civil war there...
 
do you remember all the bombings the French Resistance didn't go away until the Soviet Union collapse they almost killed Soviet Premier in the seventies remember.
 

Deleted member 109224

France probably doesn't keep Algeria without the Soviets conquering the French Mainland.

There was such a large number of emigrants and refugees from the French People's Republic (Paris) to the Free French Republic (Algiers) that that overnight Europeans (and Sephardim who were counted as Europeans) went from a tenth of the population to a third. And of course the Harkis, civil servants, and the college educated were the first in Algeria to be given the right to vote, making the country solidly French.

If Algeria is only 10% Pied Noire, I can see France abandoning the place.


Had the WAllies tried the sledgehammer approach, the Dutch, the Danes, and the Flemings wouldn't have been the only capitalist states in continental western Europe.


The death toll of the Holocaust would likely have been higher if the Allies hadn't been able to protect Hungary from German occupation.
 
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There was such a large number of emigrants and refugees from the French People's Republic (Paris) to the Free French Republic (Algiers) that that overnight Europeans (and Sephardim who were counted as Europeans) went from a tenth of the population to a third. And of course the Harkis, civil servants, and the college educated were the first in Algeria to be given the right to vote, making the country solidly French.

OTOH, it produced a tension over resources with the native Arabs - maybe there would be less violence if there's no competition between the pieds-noirs, the hexagonaux and the Arabs.
 

Deleted member 109224

OTOH, it produced a tension over resources with the native Arabs - maybe there would be less violence if there's no competition between the pieds-noirs, the hexagonaux and the Arabs.

I'm not sure the pieds-noirs would be any less violent than they were OTL. The difference would probably be the spilling over of issues into the Hexagon.

You're also forgetting the distinction between Harki and Fellahin. Not to mention the Kabyle and other Berber/Amazigh groups.

And then there's the Bedouin and Tuareg who mostly do their own thing in the desert.
 
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OTOH, it produced a tension over resources with the native Arabs - maybe there would be less violence if there's no competition between the pieds-noirs, the hexagonaux and the Arabs.
I'm not sure the pieds-noirs would be any less violent than they were OTL. The difference would probably be the spilling over of issues into the Hexagon.

You're also forgetting the distinction between Harki and Fellahim.

Just curious, but what does this have to do with the Cold War? The Soviets never made any major moves in West Africa, and I doubt if they are even weaker in the region from no France they'll intervene in Algiers.
 
Had the WAllies tried the sledgehammer approach, the Dutch and Danes wouldn't have been the only capitalist states in continental western Europe.

What about Portugal and Spain? I mean, they were technically fascist dictatorships (mainly Spain, but you know)but wouldn't they count since they had capitalist tendencies in their governments?
 

Deleted member 109224

What about Portugal and Spain? I mean, they were technically fascist dictatorships (mainly Spain, but you know)but wouldn't they count since they had capitalist tendencies in their governments?

I'd call that southern Europe. Otherwise yeah, you're right.
 
What about Portugal and Spain? I mean, they were technically fascist dictatorships (mainly Spain, but you know)but wouldn't they count since they had capitalist tendencies in their governments?

Capitalist? Hardly. Oh, they were anti-Communist, but like anybody who's seen one of those modern "Commu-nots/AntiComm" groups at an American protest will tell you just being against Communism dosen't mean you're gor freedom. They're just fine with restrictions on "degenerate products" and censorship of media, and huge public subsidies for corporations, and strict listenture and nation-good requirements for any big project not ut forward by a crony corperation. They just have their authoritarianism via proxy. Thank God/Vishnu/GFSM/whatever the US government still hasen't given into their temper tantrums
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
do you remember all the bombings the French Resistance didn't go away until the Soviet Union collapse they almost killed Soviet Premier in the seventies remember.
You realize that half of the French Resistance was communist and joined the new regime right? Most of the non-Communist French Resistance were quickly wiped out by the security forces or left for Algeria. The most powerful of the anti-Soviet resistance groups were actually formed from former Vichy loyalists.
 

Deleted member 109224

You realize that half of the French Resistance was communist and joined the new regime right? Most of the non-Communist French Resistance were quickly wiped out by the security forces or left for Algeria. The most powerful of the anti-Soviet resistance groups were actually formed from former Vichy loyalists.

It almost makes you wonder if French reunification was worth it.
 
France probably doesn't keep Algeria without the Soviets conquering the French Mainland.

There was such a large number of emigrants and refugees from the French People's Republic (Paris) to the Free French Republic (Algiers) that that overnight Europeans (and Sephardim who were counted as Europeans) went from a tenth of the population to a third. And of course the Harkis, civil servants, and the college educated were the first in Algeria to be given the right to vote, making the country solidly French.

If Algeria is only 10% Pied Noire, I can see France abandoning the place.


Had the WAllies tried the sledgehammer approach, the Dutch and Danes wouldn't have been the only capitalist states in continental western Europe.


The death toll of the Holocaust would likely have been higher if the Allies hadn't been able to protect Hungary from German occupation.
dammit, you said it before i could.
 

Deleted member 109224

Europe OTL Circa 1950, just following the Franco-Soviet split.

upload_2019-4-6_16-51-15.png
 
Europe OTL Circa 1950, just following the Franco-Soviet split.

View attachment 451766

I always thought it was mildly amusing the Anglo-American occupation zone the Reds called "Fascist" ended up actually being carved out of the heart of the Nazi movement in Barvaria. To be fair, there were quite a few "redeemed" former Nazi Party members in the administration who got out on "Just Following Orders" defenses, but that was kind of required to get skilled beuracrats.

If France is Capitalist, I can't imagine you'd see a Red Rhine though. That's what the Americans wanted as their zone,even pushing for it hard at the Havanna Conference in 44', which could have been supported via the Neatherlands. If France is in Wallied hands, you can bet those industrial centers would have been under US control rather than disassembled and moved into France as part of the Reperations payments. France and Russia were dead set on making sure the Germans who'd already invaded them twice would never rise again...
 
You realize that half of the French Resistance was communist and joined the new regime right? Most of the non-Communist French Resistance were quickly wiped out by the security forces or left for Algeria. The most powerful of the anti-Soviet resistance groups were actually formed from former Vichy loyalists.

I think he meant the bombings by the Sinophile red guards groups or the ultras. The social democratic underground was much more restrained. Even after Soviet style society began in France half the resistance were communists.
 

Deleted member 109224

. Imagine Communist nations on the Adriatic and Aegean,maybe even North Italy... Turkey would be forced to Finlandize I think and you'd have a Red navy in the Eastern Med!

I don't see why the Turks couldn't just be bought off with Marshall Plan aid, Cyprus, and the Dodecanese TTL like they were OTL.
 
I don't see why the Turks couldn't just be bought off with Marshall Plan aid, Cyprus, and the Dodecanese TTL like they were OTL.

Red Army tanks on the Thracian border might be a rather tough inducement, especially if the Soviets decide to make a crisis over the Straits. Ankara was and always have been very security sensative, and ateast in the first decade or two of the War there wasent much the Capitalist bloc could do to protect them, not until you had dependable mid-range missles and countermeasures that could be installed. Turkey won't have the breather created by the Wallied presence in the Balkans, especially the air umbrella, to fall back on in this timeline during that period
 
I always thought it was mildly amusing the Anglo-American occupation zone the Reds called "Fascist" ended up actually being carved out of the heart of the Nazi movement in Barvaria. To be fair, there were quite a few "redeemed" former Nazi Party members in the administration who got out on "Just Following Orders" defenses, but that was kind of required to get skilled beuracrats.

If France is Capitalist, I can't imagine you'd see a Red Rhine though. That's what the Americans wanted as their zone,even pushing for it hard at the Havanna Conference in 44', which could have been supported via the Neatherlands. If France is in Wallied hands, you can bet those industrial centers would have been under US control rather than disassembled and moved into France as part of the Reperations payments. France and Russia were dead set on making sure the Germans who'd already invaded them twice would never rise again...
Do you think it’s possible that the American/British and French occupation zones might be combined into a single “West Germany”? (Although they would probably give it a better name than that.)
 
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