DBWI: Douglas Ginsburg’s Nomination Withdrawn

Back in 1987, after Robert Bork’s nomination to the Supreme Court had failed in the Senate, President Reagan had nominated Douglas Ginsburg, another D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals judge who was considered a strong conservative without the controversial speeches and rhetoric that Bork had. Just days after the nomination, however, it was reported that Nina Totenburg of NPR that Ginsburg had used marijuana as both a student in college and as a professor.

However, Reagan was able to convince Ginsburg to stay on as his nominee after the judge initially requested that Reagan withdraw him. At his hearings, while not as controversial as Bork’s, Ginsburg expressed regret for his marijuana use, and insisted that he did not use it anymore. The insistence worked, and Ginsburg was confirmed 58-42, ironically, an exact flip vote from Bork.

Over the years, even to today, Ginsburg has followed a very originalist and textualist judicial philosophy on the Supreme Court, many rating him as the Court’s most conservative Justice.

My question is this: what if Reagan has not convinced Ginsburg to stay on as his nominee? What if Reagan has withdrawn Douglas Ginsburg’s nomination?
 
Bush probably does a bit better against Dukakis. Ginsburg's confirmation somewhat embarrassed the Republicans on drug policy, and the Democrats were able to point them out as hypocrites for appointing Douglas.
 
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Bush probably does a bit better against Dukakis. Douglas' confirmation somewhat embarrassed the Republicans on drug policy, and the Democrats were able to point them out as hypocrites for appointing Douglas.

Even though he didn’t absolutely trounce Dukakis, the Massachusetts Governor was able to swing key states away from Bush, even though he wasn’t able to win the 1988 election.

When it comes to Supreme Court picks, Ginsburg’s nomination allowed for Republican Presidents to pick more outright conservative nominees instead of what is considered “stealth candidates,” like Sandra Day O’Connor. It’s a reason that Bush was able to appoint a strong conservative in Edith Jones in 1990.
 
Even though he didn’t absolutely trounce Dukakis, the Massachusetts Governor was able to swing key states away from Bush, even though he wasn’t able to win the 1988 election.

When it comes to Supreme Court picks, Ginsburg’s nomination allowed for Republican Presidents to pick more outright conservative nominees instead of what is considered “stealth candidates,” like Sandra Day O’Connor. It’s a reason that Bush was able to appoint a strong conservative in Edith Jones in 1990.

I suppose that conservative judges helped to rally the base around Bush and narrow the gap somewhat against Clinton, although he still lost in 1992.

I wonder if Thurgood Marshall would have resigned if Bush had appointed more moderate justices. He wanted to resign in 1991, but he held out in the hopes a Democrat might win in 1992. Ultimately Marshall died only days after Clinton was sworn in.
 
I suppose that conservative judges helped to rally the base around Bush and narrow the gap somewhat against Clinton, although he still lost in 1992.

I wonder if Thurgood Marshall would have resigned if Bush had appointed more moderate justices. He wanted to resign in 1991, but he held out in the hopes a Democrat might win in 1992. Ultimately Marshall died only days after Clinton was sworn in.

It’s normally hard to win 4 straight elections for the White House.

Marshall was smart to hold out until Clinton. He, in turn, was replaced by Amalya Kearse. However, she gained a reputation for being a moderate, which disappointed many Democrats. She ended up being akin to that of Sandra Day O’Connor instead of someone as liberal as Thurgood Marshall.

It could’ve been worse. When Bush was preparing a list in case of Marshall’s retirement, on top of that list was Clarence Thomas, a noted strong conservative African American judge on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals. Imagine that confirmation process.
 
OOC: I don't think Ginsburg would have been confirmed. The failure of his nomination was as much about his support amongst Republicans fracturing and collapsing as it was anything else, and if you can't uphold support on your own 'side', you are on very shaky grounds - a lot of key right-wingers like Bill Bennett were already breaking cover in opposition to Ginsburg. Even before the marijuana issue came out, a lot of the right were questioning his credentials, that he might take his libertariansm too seriously for them, and that he might uphold a right to privacy, an angst exacerbated by the fact that his wife, a doctor, had performed abortions - like Harriet Miers, the lack of a paper trail wasn't a plus point in all this. The fact he had smoked marijuana so frequently really put the cap on all of the scepticism about Ginsburg - it all seemed a hallmark of the student radicals a lot of movement conservatives had battled against.
 
It’s normally hard to win 4 straight elections for the White House.

Marshall was smart to hold out until Clinton. He, in turn, was replaced by Amalya Kearse. However, she gained a reputation for being a moderate, which disappointed many Democrats. She ended up being akin to that of Sandra Day O’Connor instead of someone as liberal as Thurgood Marshall.

Clinton had originally wanted to replace Marshall with Mario Cuomo, but for whatever reason Cuomo wasn't up to it and he passed on the opportunity. After that Clinton turned to Kearse and the rest is history.

Now if Marshall had resigned in 1991 and Bush had been able to appoint a moderate Republican, Bush v Gore would've gone the other way and George W. Bush - not Al Gore - would've become the 43rd President.
 
Clinton had originally wanted to replace Marshall with Mario Cuomo, but for whatever reason Cuomo wasn't up to it and he passed on the opportunity. After that Clinton turned to Kearse and the rest is history.

Now if Marshall had resigned in 1991 and Bush had been able to appoint a moderate Republican, Bush v Gore would've gone the other way and George W. Bush - not Al Gore - would've become the 43rd President.

OOC: Wait, if the Supreme Court was Scalia, D. Ginsburg, Rehnquist, O’Connor, Kearse, Stevens, Breyer, Jones and R. Ginsburg, wouldn’t it still not be enough to turn Bush v. Gore in Gore’s favor? Presumably, if everyone voted the same as OTL, the majority to stop the recount would be Scalia, Jones, D. Ginsburg, Rehnquist, and O’Connor.
 
OOC: Wait, if the Supreme Court was Scalia, D. Ginsburg, Rehnquist, O’Connor, Kearse, Stevens, Breyer, Jones and R. Ginsburg, wouldn’t it still not be enough to turn Bush v. Gore in Gore’s favor? Presumably, if everyone voted the same as OTL, the majority to stop the recount would be Scalia, Jones, D. Ginsburg, Rehnquist, and O’Connor.

Edith Jones resigned in 1997 after she made controversial remarks about African-Americans and Hispanics in a speech to the Federalist Society the year before. She said that blacks and Hispanics were more "predisposed to crime" than other groups. The speech disgusted many and Jones was asked by her fellow Justices to step down. At first she refused, but relented after she became subject to an ethics complaint and later a Congressional investigation. This allowed Clinton to replace her with a Democrat.

OOC: Jones actually said that, and actually became subject to an ethics complaint as a result, but not until 2013.
 
Might have delayed legalization of marijuana. Once you had a Supreme who smoked, it was harder to justify continued prohibition. Also paved the way for weed no longer being an issue in presidential campaigns. Clinton won in 1992 and Gary Johnson defeated Gore's reelection bid. He immediately rescheduled and deferred jurisdiction in weed cases to the states. When the world didn't end we were able to legalize in 2010.
 
Might have delayed legalization of marijuana. Once you had a Supreme who smoked, it was harder to justify continued prohibition. Also paved the way for weed no longer being an issue in presidential campaigns. Clinton won in 1992 and Gary Johnson defeated Gore's reelection bid. He immediately rescheduled and deferred jurisdiction in weed cases to the states. When the world didn't end we were able to legalize in 2010.

That was one of Johnson's few political victories in 2010, the year the stock market crashed and elected a Democratic Congress. I remember those years very well and they weren't fun times.

@TheAllTimeGreatest What do you think of Gary Johnson's Supreme Court picks?
 
Edith Jones resigned in 1997 after she made controversial remarks about African-Americans and Hispanics in a speech to the Federalist Society the year before. She said that blacks and Hispanics were more "predisposed to crime" than other groups. The speech disgusted many and Jones was asked by her fellow Justices to step down. At first she refused, but relented after she became subject to an ethics complaint and later a Congressional investigation. This allowed Clinton to replace her with a Democrat.

OOC: Jones actually said that, and actually became subject to an ethics complaint as a result, but not until 2013.

OOC: Ah, didn’t realize that. Yeah, that’s not exactly a good thing.

Gary Johnson’s Supreme Court picks have been pretty good so far. He appointed Janice Rogers Brown as the first female Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and appointed Samuel Alito to replace Sandra Day O’Connor. This effectively put the bench at a 4-4 toss up at the time due to both of them being stronger conservatives than their predecessors. On the conservative side, you had Brown, D. Ginsburg, Alito, and Scalia, and on the liberal side you had R. Ginsburg, Breyer, Stevens, and Gilbert Merrit who replaced Edith Jones in 1997. Meanwhile, you have Kearse in the middle as the lone swing vote.

Then, he made history in 2010 when he appointed Miguel Estrada to the Supreme Court after John Paul Stevens retired, effectively placing the majority in favor of conservatives.

OOC: I suspect Gary Johnson would still be a Republican in this case since he would just be coming off of serving two terms as New Mexico’s Governor. Also, would Johnson’s be re-elected in 2008?
 
OOC: I suspect Gary Johnson would still be a Republican in this case since he would just be coming off of serving two terms as New Mexico’s Governor. Also, would Johnson’s be re-elected in 2008?

OOC: It's already been established that he defeats Gore in 2004 and is still President in 2010, so he gets re-elected in the DBWI. But realistically speaking he could only get re-elected if butterflies delay the financial crisis. In post #11 I mention that the stock market crash happens in 2010, two years later than OTL. So the recession should begin a year before. 2012 is likely to be a Democratic year.
 
OOC: It's already been established that he defeats Gore in 2004 and is still President in 2010, so he gets re-elected in the DBWI. But realistically speaking he could only get re-elected if butterflies delay the financial crisis. In post #11 I mention that the stock market crash happens in 2010, two years later than OTL. So the recession should begin a year before. 2012 is likely to be a Democratic year.

OOC: Gotcha! Jumping back in!

Here’s another question: out of the current Justices today, who is you favorite one? Personally, I’m a big fan of Raymond Kethledge, who was recently appointed to the Supreme Court in 2017 by President Rubio to succeed Scalia after his death in December of 2016. Much like Scalia and D. Ginsburg, he follows a textualist and originalist jurisprudence, something I like in Justices.
 
OOC: Gotcha! Jumping back in!

Here’s another question: out of the current Justices today, who is you favorite one? Personally, I’m a big fan of Raymond Kethledge, who was recently appointed to the Supreme Court in 2017 by President Rubio to succeed Scalia after his death in December of 2016. Much like Scalia and D. Ginsburg, he follows a textualist and originalist jurisprudence, something I like in Justices.

Probably RBG. Merrick Garland would have made a great Justice if the Republican Senate didn't block his appointment in 2016. The failure to confirm Garland was a big reason President Hillary Clinton lost to Rubio in 2016. Rubio is reasonably popular right now and if the economy remains strong he'll probably get re-elected. Who might Rubio appoint if he gets a chance in his second term?
 
Probably RBG. Merrick Garland would have made a great Justice if the Republican Senate didn't block his appointment in 2016. The failure to confirm Garland was a big reason President Hillary Clinton lost to Rubio in 2016. Rubio is reasonably popular right now and if the economy remains strong he'll probably get re-elected. Who might Rubio appoint if he gets a chance in his second term?

Hmm...a couple of people come to mind. I heard the top of that list includes judges like Neil Gorsuch, Amy Barrett, Amul Thapar, or Darpana Sheth. Clinton was lucky to appoint two Justices during her term when she replaced Amalya Kearse and Gilbert Merrit with Nina Pillard and David Barron respectively. However, Rubio might get that same opportunity should R. Ginsburg kick the bucket, or should someone like Breyer retire.

When it comes to Merrick Garland, you really can’t blame Rubio for that. He was one calling for a vote on Garland (however, I heard it was because he was sure the vote would fail)
 
Hmm...a couple of people come to mind. I heard the top of that list includes judges like Neil Gorsuch, Amy Barrett, Amul Thapar, or Darpana Sheth. Clinton was lucky to appoint two Justices during her term when she replaced Amalya Kearse and Gilbert Merrit with Nina Pillard and David Barron respectively. However, Rubio might get that same opportunity should R. Ginsburg kick the bucket, or should someone like Breyer retire.

OOC: Is Douglas Ginsburg still on the bench at this point?
 
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