DBWI: Divided Germany, United Japan

[British Biscuit]

What if the Big Three had agreed on a different post-WW2 plans for the defeated Axis Powers? Specifically, what if the fates of Germany and Japan were reversed? Germany is divided into a Western-aligned nation and a Soviet-aligned nation while Japan remains whole & undivided.

What could bring this about? How would the post-war world change?

 

[LordMartinax]

What if the Big Three had agreed on a different post-WW2 plans for the defeated Axis Powers? Specifically, what if the fates of Germany and Japan were reversed? Germany is divided into a Western-aligned nation and a Soviet-aligned nation while Japan remains whole & undivided.

What could bring this about? How would the post-war world change?

In Europe, I would say that a much better Soviet performance is necessary. Perhaps they manage to retake Moscow in the 1942 spring offensive? The Germans were rather lucky to hold it untill late 1942, and while many like to declare the first counter-offensive a doomed one, the German lines were nearly broken in several places.
Even better would be for them to actually hold onto Moscow, though that is much less unlikely. Perhaps Stalin doesn't meddle in the millitary matters so much, and doesn't concentrate his reserves for the idiotic attempts to retake Leningrad (though that seems somewhat out of character)? Or perhaps, more forces from the Japanese borders are brought in, though I am unsure if they could get there in time.

With such a succes, the post-war division of Europe could be moved more deep into Europe, instead of the OTL Vistula-Carpathian line. The Soviets actually manage to get to Germany proper, and demand a part of it as their own sphere state, similar to OTL East Poland and Finland. Some rather interesting questions rise here. If USSR also takes more territories in the Balkans, would the OTL annexation of Moldavia occur? And what would be the form of the West German state? Would the Wittlesbach lead federal monarchy still be implemented, and how would losing the East affect it? Oh, and would Oder still be Polands Western boundary, because there were plans for the possibility of an Oder-Nissau line. Or perhaps they gain less German territory, considering that there would probably be only one Poland. There are frankly lots of possiblities here.

As for Japan... not sure honestly. A wors Soviet performance? A decisive Japanese defeat before the may of 1943 by the Americans? Will let someone more knowledgable answer that.

 

[stodge]

Hang on - we had that ridiculous Soviet enclave in Berlin - an island of Communism surrounded by a sea of capitalism.

It was the most absurd situation - in the end, they had to put up a wall to stop people escaping both into the rest of the city and into the surrounding area. It was totally unviable and propped up by Moscow economically until the 1980s.

The JSSR was also propped up by Moscow but to nothing like the same extent.

 

[tinfoil]

For Japan, to prevent split imposed by the Soviet 'dibs' doctrine, the USA/Brits would have to conquer the whole of the Japanese islands before the USSR has landed any troops. Unless the USA was prepared to incur even more casualties by 'rushing', this will be difficult. As it was, Operation Downfall pretty near brought down the American government over all of the dead and maimed US troops. Do not forget, at the time, the involvement of the Russians in Japan was encouraged so that they could have some of the casualties. The only way I see this working would be a slightly stronger Germany/Axis group for a little bit longer, keeping the Soviets distracted. The Romanians, українська армія свободи (Free Ukrainians), and Hungarians could have been supported better so they fought cohesively a bit longer for Germany. If you want a deus ex machina solution, perhaps the atomic bomb projects could have had a bit more early success, so that they were available in 1946 to force a quicker surrender by Japan rather than in 1948 when there was no war to use them upon.

For Germany, we would need a better Russian outcome, so that their armies get to the greater Brandenburg area at the same time as the Western Allies, or even a little bit sooner. Maybe Germany committed fewer atrocities, so the Russian reprisals were lessened? Maybe the Free French / Brits / USA did more bad things to enrage the Germans? Whatever it is, some dynamic would have to change so that the Germans did not deploy over 85% of their resources in the Eastern defense. It is clear that, other than local pockets, the Eastern-front Germans fought to the last man, fanatically giving ground as slowly as possible, while the Western-Front Germans seemed to give ground quickly, offering only token resistance (by comparison). Clearly, the German army knew which of their opponents they wanted occupying the Fatherland, once it was obvious that they could not prevail.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

How would the post-war world change?

As to the post-war world changing...

Maybe flip the two countries' military development around. Like, Germany's got so very many restrictions on the use of its military given its constitutional neutrality and the renunciation of war in its constitution... Whereas Japan, OTOH, got rearmed very quickly because of the Soviet Menace in Northern Japan and the potential for WWIII breaking out over the border there. And even though the Army had drawdowns and retooling towards expeditionary/peacekeeping warfare following reunification, the Japan Navy is like the fourth-largest in the world and their Air Force isn't to be sneezed at. Plus, they've been damn active in supporting the US in overseas fights since the 1990s - see them deploying one of their two light carriers to the Gulf.

OOC: Flipping German and Japanese military development, though I don't see Japanese politicians winding down Cold War forces to the same level as Germany did OTL.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Germany defeats France in 1940. If France falls, the Allies are forced to adopt to a Europe first strategy rather than the Pacific first strategy when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941. If France is defeated, the USSR would have to focus priority on it’s army, rather than the navy in it’s Pacific first strategy. In our world, the Allies held the line in Western Europe and went for Pacific first. The British were able to hold Hong Kong for a few months. The Anglo French fought a war of attrition in Indochina while the Japanese attempted siege warfare on Singapore. Force Z was able to smash the Japanese landings in Malaya. At the Battle of Java Sea, the Dutch battlecruisers, HMS Lion, Clemenceau, and USS Washington among with smaller ships lead by admiral Karl Doorman inflicted a heavy defeat on the Japanese fleet. Meanwhile, the Japanese tried to repeat their 1905 successes against the Soviets during the Battle of Vladivostok. The 1942 summer Great Offensive in Europe knocked out Germany and Italy out of the war, with the Americans, British, and French reaching Berlin, with the Soviets around East Prussia. The Soviet navy with their new battleships got their revenge against the Japanese in the Battle of Tsushima in 1942. The British was able to recapture Hong Kong, the Allies landed in Formosa, Okinawa, and Iwo Jima and commenced Operation Downfall in 1943. Had France fell in 1940, there would have been a Europe first policy with the war lasting another two years and the Soviets get more land in Europe

 

[AstroRangerBeans]

For me, no Patton-led March on Berlin where the Old Glory flag has been raised atop the Reichstag after Nazi officials were forced to surrender and captured by the Allied forces.

And what about the Soviet Union declaring war on Japan on August instead of July which became a cataclysmic impact that the Japanese society had been divided even until now after reunification?

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Well, one thing that has dragged out and almost prevented the possibility of Japanese reunification has been two issues. First the Southern government, until Prime Minister Hosokowa Morohiro in 1991, refused to apologize for its war crimes, or the role of Emperor Hirohito.

Second, Sanzo Nosaka and his daughter Yonago Nosaka were both ruthless in their control, and made sure to appease the Soviets, even after the crisis in 1983. It seems hard to not imagine Japan broken up, divided and occupied after Operation CHERRY BLOSSOM in 1945. While the release of biological weapons by Unit 731 didn't halt U.S. military progress, it certainly killed 3.1 million in Australia, the Philippines, New Zealand, Indonesia, Indochina and the United States...and fueled a desire for revenge..

 

[Whiteshore]

Second, Sanzo Nosaka and his daughter Yonago Nosaka were both ruthless in their control, and made sure to appease the Soviets, even after the crisis in 1983.

Even Romania, North China, and Korea were moderate compared to North Japan in terms of nastiness. Say what you can about Pak Hon-Yong, Ceauescu, or Mao Zedong, but neither tried to essentially make themselves living gods or enshrine a pseudo-monarchic system of succession.

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

Well, one thing that has dragged out and prevented the possibility of Japanese reunification

OOC: My post - before yours - already stated Japan had reunified post Cold-War.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

OOC: My post - before yours - already stated Japan had reunified post Cold-War.

Fixed itt...

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Even Romania, North China, and Korea were moderate compared to North Japan in terms of nastiness. Say what you can about Pak Hon-Yong, Ceauescu, or Mao Zedong, but neither tried to essentially make themselves living gods or enshrine a pseudo-monarchic system of succession.

Then again South China followed an autocratic rule from Chiang Kai-shek to Chiang Ching-Kuo until 1989.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

One thing that has to be brought up is how Germany and France have made Great Britain feel "different" from the rest of Europe. Consider that Great Britain, while it did help from NATO in 1947, didn't join the European Union until 1983.

Even UK Prime Minister Tony Blair didn't feel compelled to send troops into the Second Spanish Civil War (1991-1996)....

 

[Pelranius]

One thing that has to be brought up is how Germany and France have made Great Britain feel "different" from the rest of Europe. Consider that Great Britain, while it did help from NATO in 1947, didn't join the European Union until 1983.

Even UK Prime Minister Tony Blair didn't feel compelled to send troops into the Second Spanish Civil War (1991-1996)....

Honestly, I don't know why the Germans and Poles bothered to send so many (and continue to keep) so many soldiers into the SSCW.

A lot of the opinions I've read are that their militaries (especially the Armies) wanted to demonstrate relevance in a post Cold War environment, or that there was fear in Berlin and Warsaw of domestic fascist terrorists hiding out in Spain.

 

[Changundramon]

Even Romania, North China, and Korea were moderate compared to North Japan in terms of nastiness. Say what you can about Pak Hon-Yong, Ceauescu, or Mao Zedong, but neither tried to essentially make themselves living gods or enshrine a pseudo-monarchic system of succession.

This was more Yonago's trait than her father's. He was even hesitant to have North Japan establish an army. Kyuichi Tokuda was the militant one. He and Inejiro Asanuma poisoned Yonago's mind.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Earlier nukes. OTL, America got them online in 46, Britain just a few months later, and the soviets in 49.

If any of them got it earlier, they could probably force a surrender to just them, vs the allied nations

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Northern China has been subject to Soviet invasion (a.k.a. "police actions") in 1956, 1968, 1976, and 1989, after Stalin's death.

Southern China has suffered border clashes with neighboring India in 1962, 1984, 1998 and 2002.

As such, would a unified China have been able to prevent the constant border incursions?

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

This was more Yonago's trait than her father's. He was even hesitant to have North Japan establish an army. Kyuichi Tokuda was the militant one. He and Inejiro Asanuma poisoned Yonago's mind.

One of the weirdest parts of the Cold War, was the North and South Japanese film industries. Starting in 1954, North Japan would start kidnapping South Japanese directors, actors and actresses, for their propaganda films. In return, starting in 1966, the United States and South Japan began luring anime writers and directors to defect, ostensibly to make "patriotic" anime films. Now that Japan has been reunified for 3 decades, what do you think will change in anime?

 

[Changundramon]

One of the weirdest parts of the Cold War, was the North and South Japanese film industries. Starting in 1954, North Japan would start kidnapping South Japanese directors, actors and actresses, for their propaganda films. In return, starting in 1966, the United States and South Japan began luring anime writers and directors to defect, ostensibly to make "patriotic" anime films. Now that Japan has been reunified for 3 decades, what do you think will change in anime?

There will be more comedy moments. Both North and South Japan tended to prefer serious topics, with very realistic drawings.