DBWI: D. Pedro II of Brazil had not been murdered

July 15th of 1889 is considered one of the most decisive days in brazilian history. On that day, Dom Pedro II, the emperor of Brazil, was shot by Adriano Augusto do Valle, a republican portuguese. His death caused comotion across the country and had a bad effect for the republican movement , making many of its moderate members leave for the liberal party to not be associated with the "republican violence". Although most brazilians see this moment as one of the times when the monarchy was at risk, there are modern theories that indicate that the emperor's death saved the regime by making him a martyr. So what would have happened if Dom Pedro II had not been murdered? How many years would he live? How would the political situation of the country evolve? Would Brazil become a republic instead of the monarchy it still is now?
 
Well, for starters, there would be a less equal distribution of wealth and a later industrialization in Brazil as people often forget the republicans were largely part of the planter elite and the military, who were unhappy with the Empire abolishing slavery.
 
I don't think the coup had a chance anyway. The majority of the military was monarchist; Pedro had only to order them to act and they would have, as Empress Isabella did OTL. I can't see why he wouldn't do that. IMO a much better POD for a Republican Brazil is in the 30s in the economic depression of Black Wednesday.
 
I don't think the coup had a chance anyway. The majority of the military was monarchist; Pedro had only to order them to act and they would have, as Empress Isabella did OTL. I can't see why he wouldn't do that. IMO a much better POD for a Republican Brazil is in the 30s in the economic depression of Black Wednesday.
Yes. I remember studying about the many radical parties from both left and right wing which arrived during the 1929 crisis in Brazil, many of them being totally anti-monarchist. However, they were neutralized during the government of prime minister Getulio Vargas*.
Anyway, the death of Pedro and the rise of Isabel I impacted on the religious policy of the empire, as, contrary to her father (who went against the Pope's will sometimes), the empress (and most of her descendants) was a devout catholic and cooperated very well with the Church in Rome as the de facto leader of the Catholic Church in Brazil. I wonder if more years of Pedro II as the emperor would damage more the relationship with the central church or if a republican Brazil would be a less catholic nation....

*OOC: this AU Getulio Vargas is basically the same person as OU Getulio, but his political career was different (no Coffe-with-Milk Republic = very different elections). He also never became a dictator, but stayed as a influential politician during many years.
 
Well there was that ankward relationship of Brazil Royal family to the Saxe-Coburgo and the Habsburg that give much fuel to the antimonarchist and their friends anarchists during WWI. I'm impressed how they managed to stay out of war politics until the atack on Noronha's harbor in the 40s.
 

Dolan

Banned
Well there was that ankward relationship of Brazil Royal family to the Saxe-Coburgo and the Habsburg that give much fuel to the antimonarchist and their friends anarchists during WWI. I'm impressed how they managed to stay out of war politics until the atack on Noronha's harbor in the 40s.
At least now Monarchs end up being seen as essential stabilizing factor in Parliamentary Democracies. Being Head of State who held authority through traditions and neutrality above politics.

Sure, it did raised many eyebrows when Portugal end up asking Prince Manuel (younger brother of Emperor Pedro III) to be their King after the ruinous fascist reign of Estado Nuevo, with agreement to marry Princess Marie-Luise of Austria. While many Portuguese did seen this as return of the rightful King, some did point out that this could be seen as imposition made by the winners of the Second Great War (due to Marrying Austrian Princess Clause)
 
Sure, it did raised many eyebrows when Portugal end up asking Prince Manuel (younger brother of Emperor Pedro III) to be their King after the ruinous fascist reign of Estado Nuevo, with agreement to marry Princess Marie-Luise of Austria. While many Portuguese did seen this as return of the rightful King, some did point out that this could be seen as imposition made by the winners of the Second Great War (due to Marrying Austrian Princess Clause)

There was actually quite a bit of controversy and accusations of being made into a Brazilian puppet state following the restoration in Portugal as the Duke of Braganza, Duarte Pio, was considered to the legitimate claimant to the Portuguese throne. There's still a Miguelist party in Portugal, they're not that influential though.
 

Dolan

Banned
There was actually quite a bit of controversy and accusations of being made into a Brazilian puppet state following the restoration in Portugal as the Duke of Braganza, Duarte Pio, was considered to the legitimate claimant to the Portuguese throne. There's still a Miguelist party in Portugal, they're not that influential though.
Duerte Nuno being seen as Salazar's crony actually hurt his descendants' claim on Portuguese throne, seeing that if not because of Pro-Democracy demonstrations that led into fall of Estado Nuevo, he would be basically Portuguese version of King Juan Carlos, the current reigning Royal Dictator of Spain.

Sure, Falangist Spain got away with that because they wisely stayed out of the Great War instead of outright following Petain's orders. Estado Nuevo Portugal, however, declare war against the Pact of Seven Empires over Generallisimo Mac Arthur's empty promises during the Second Great War.

There is no way Austria and Britain will accept Duerte Nuno as Monarch of Portugal after that, and as Brazilian monarch did belongs to the same house as old Portuguese one...

But at least Portugal was spared the long time, brutal occupation that happened in the now dismembered United States of America. A fascist, slaveowning industrial power that need to be invaded simultaneously by Britain, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and Japan to put their Manifest Destiny madness down, and even then, the Ku Klux Klan terrorist/guerilla fighters still plague North America even until today.

OOC: Think of this ATL America as being Expansionist CSA on steroid.
 
Duerte Nuno being seen as Salazar's crony actually hurt his descendants' claim on Portuguese throne, seeing that if not because of Pro-Democracy demonstrations that led into fall of Estado Nuevo, he would be basically Portuguese version of King Juan Carlos, the current reigning Royal Dictator of Spain.

Sure, Falangist Spain got away with that because they wisely stayed out of the Great War instead of outright following Petain's orders. Estado Nuevo Portugal, however, declare war against the Pact of Seven Empires over Generallisimo Mac Arthur's empty promises during the Second Great War.

There is no way Austria and Britain will accept Duerte Nuno as Monarch of Portugal after that, and as Brazilian monarch did belongs to the same house as old Portuguese one...

But at least Portugal was spared the long time, brutal occupation that happened in the now dismembered United States of America. A fascist, slaveowning industrial power that need to be invaded simultaneously by Britain, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and Japan to put their Manifest Destiny madness down, and even then, the Ku Klux Klan terrorist/guerilla fighters still plague North America even until today.

OOC: Think of this ATL America as being Expansionist CSA on steroid.

That was a foolish move on the part of Duarte Nuno, from what I've read Salazar was a republican and seemed to be stringing Duarte along more than anything. I don't think a comparison can really be made with Spain, Franco was more of an old-fashioned military dictator than an actual ideological fascist. Fascist states like MacArthur's America or Petain's France were primarily republican as fascist leaders seldom like having to share power and attention as the supreme leader of the nation with anyone else.

Though speaking of Spain, I wonder if there's a possibility Duarte could've been restored had the Anglo-Austrian split happened earlier considering that Britain is one of the Spanish royal dictatorship's primary backers due to Juan Carlos' opposition to the United States of Austria's Paneuropan Union. The Portuguese Braganzas had a long history of good relations with Britain and he could've presented himself as a staunch British ally who would oppose Pan-europeanism unlike the pro-Austrian Manuel.
 

Dolan

Banned
Though speaking of Spain, I wonder if there's a possibility Duarte could've been restored had the Anglo-Austrian split happened earlier considering that Britain is one of the Spanish royal dictatorship's primary backers due to Juan Carlos' opposition to the United States of Austria's Paneuropan Union. The Portuguese Braganzas had a long history of good relations with Britain and he could've presented himself as a staunch British ally who would oppose Pan-europeanism unlike the pro-Austrian Manuel.
Ah yes, the pan-European economic integration... Britain obviously oppose them on the grounds that British Empire Poundsterling has more people using them compared to the proposed pan-European Florin.

Sure, in Europe, only British Isles use Poundsterling, but when we look at the other parts of the World; Australia, New Zealand, and British North America used them as they are direct constituents of British Empire. That's not counting the various Rajput Princedoms from Kashmir to Sarawak, as well as Rhodesian Confederation at Africa who used the Poundsterling as legal tender out of Economic practicality even after gaining their independence.

We all know that Pan-European Florin is Austrian and Russian way to undermine British economic power because while being economic juggernaut themselves, United States of Austria are limited to Europe due to being direct successor of Holy Roman Empire, and we all know Russian parts that really matter is their European parts, not their sprawling but sparsely populated Siberian and Central Asian holdings.

Now, if only the French has truly independent government instead of the Third (restored) Kingdom imposed by winners of Second Great War, they would not voluntarily join the Pan-European Economic Union.
 

Deleted member 67076

Some weird hybrid oligarchy of the military, the mineral barons and the old sugar planters?

Dont think that'd last too long honestly.
 
Now, if only the French has truly independent government instead of the Third (restored) Kingdom imposed by winners of Second Great War, they would not voluntarily join the Pan-European Economic Union.
Yeah, and then maybe they'd elect a government that would set Europe on fire for a FOURTH time! Look, I'm no fan of that meme that blames French people (Clovis, Calvin, Napoleon, de Gualle) for everything bad in history, but can you really blame Kaiser Otto for doing what he did after the Rape of Frankfurt?
 
But at least Portugal was spared the long time, brutal occupation that happened in the now dismembered United States of America. A fascist, slaveowning industrial power that need to be invaded simultaneously by Britain, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and Japan to put their Manifest Destiny madness down, and even then, the Ku Klux Klan terrorist/guerilla fighters still plague North America even until today.
Your thoughts on the world-renowned historian with multiple awards Howard Zinn's book on American History? While I disagree on his thesis of a "Special Path" which the United States was destined to go after, he did analyze how a radical regime was able to take over the US even with the American Civil War?

OOC: Yes, I made Howard Zinn one of the main proponents of TTL's analogue to the Sonderweg.
 
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