Max Sinister
Banned
The Chinese states had an army of a million men. Khwarezm even two millions. How many soldiers could the steppe people muster, even if they took every man between 15 and 50? 200,000 maybe? There you have the problem.
Have a scion of a relatively obscure tribe to unite the para-Khitan tribes under his leadership, make a unified law and set to conquer a relatively large part of the world to the point of starting a genetic legacy.
And I potentially think of the Borgijn clan, who in OTL established their reputation as the source of some of the most loyal tribes in the Khitan Empire. Even the most suitable royal brides.
Seems ASB, right?
Hang on, you're not even counting Cumania? That rather large state south of Poland and Ruthenia, east of Hungary, and bordering the Black Sea.Wait a minute, so you're seriously telling me that a bunch of backwards, pelt-wearing tribals in the steppes of inner Asia are going to be able to topple the Chinese empires (Jin and Sung), the Choson, the Khwarezmian Empire, the Seljuks and the Rus principates? And then mount successful campaigns against Hungary and Poland, two of the strongest kingdoms in Europe?
Hang on, you're not even counting Cumania? That rather large state south of Poland and Ruthenia, west of Hungary, and bordering the Black Sea.
Well, stranger things could happen but, there is some sense in your plan. If that hero of yours (whatever is his name) manages to create out of the united tribes an army which serves him and not the tribal leaders and, on the top of it, manages to promote to the top command position some capable people regardless of their standing in their native tribe, then quite a few things will be possible. After all, Northern China is being ruled by the nomads who conquered it few generations ago and there is certain unhappiness among the native population and even among the descendants of the nomadic conquerors who had been then replaced by the latest conquerors. Plus, Southern China is being ruled by a native dynasty which despises the "barbarians" of the Northern China and may be ready to stab them in a back.
The tribal peoples in that area are hyper-traditional. You'd think without a settled agricultural society, aristocracy would be meaningless, but that's not the case. Geneology in particular is massively important. You can't just hand-wave that and say "the army serves him, not the petty qans". It isn't that simple. All armies are made out of people, who are the products of their upbringing. Tribal loyalty has been inculcated in them since childhood. There is no such thing as pan-nomadic unity, and there never will be. Unification of the steppe could only ever occur by force of arms and when you unify with force, you have dissenters.
Besides, why would the Song prefer a truly 'wild' steppe polity to the semi-sinicized Jurchen Jin?
The conquest may start as more or less typical large-scale raid which produces a lot of loot with a skyrocketing reputation of the top leader. Later the Mongols may get back for a more systematic conquest of the Northern China while recruiting the big numbers of the native soldiers unwilling to serve the current "barbarians". With the civic administration (when it comes to ruling and not just looting) things are even simpler: just promote the existing bureaucrats to the next rank without an exam and they'll adore you. Eventually, you can achieve a lot (and build up a huge army) with a limited number of your own troops.
Again, why oppose the barbarians you know, for the ones that you don't know?
While all this is going on, go to the West. Deal with Kara-Khitan Khanate (multi-religious state so at least one of the religions is going to be oppressed and, as such, willing to cooperate) and then confront Khwaresm. It is seemingly a big and powerful state but, strictly speaking, it is not a true state, just a set of the recently conquered territories on the earlier stages of consolidation. In theory, it can raise a big army but that army is an ad hoc set of the tribal bands (with a lot of the bad blood between them) without an uniform organization and discipline. Ruler of Khwaresm would be taking enormous risk if he marched his army for a major field battle against a highly disciplined army of the Mongolian veterans. So most probably he would distribute whatever he has between the fortified cities expecting that the raiding nomads would not be able to take them. However, IF the Mongols are using the Chinese specialists, they have a powerful siege machines in their disposal and, sooner or later, Khwaresm will be conquered.
These theoretical Mongolian veterans, why would they necessarily be more disciplined than the Khwarezmians? They are ad hoc bands too. One defeat and they'll simply melt away, like most nomadic forces. Yes, if they conquer China they can conquer Khwarezm, but they won't be conquering China.
What's next? The Kuman tribes between Caspian and Volga Sea are nuisance but not a major obstacle and the same goes for the Bulgars of Volga. If expedition against them started, their conquest may take a year or two.
The next is Vladimir-Suzdal Rus, which should be a piece of cake: they are just a bunch of medium-/small-sized principalities quarreling with each other. Each local ruler may raise a band between few hundreds and (very few) thousands warriors. The cities have wooden walls which simply can't stand against the powerful "artillery". If the Mongols chose the right time for their attack (which, obviously, is a winter when the countless rivers are frozen and can be used as the roads) then all places that matter are going to be taken before beginning of the spring. After all, unlike not quite successful conquerors of the future, the Mongols are well used to the cold winters (and have suitable clothes) and so are their horses.
So, with the best case scenario, most of the mission is accomplished.![]()
No, I'm just pointing out the Mongols would have had to go through Cumania before reaching Hungary and it wasn't exactly weak despite not being a traditional western monarchy. Its division today is a result of modern ideology not inherent instability.That country was a steppe state anyway. It may have exacted tribute from some of the Ruthenian principalities, but it didn't conquer them. You can't possibly think the Cumans could have conquered China if they had turned East?
We're talking about a small polity of 1-2 million people conquering significant portions of China and its Central Asian neighbours. One that didn't have writing and historically was nothing more than an appendage of the Han, Sui, Tang and Song empires. At the time when gunpowder warfare had become prominent in China. You might as well say that the Scythians can overrun the Roman Empire. Not even the Germans and Arabs managed to do that in its entirety.
alexmilman said: ↑
Well, stranger things could happen but, there is some sense in your plan. If that hero of yours (whatever is his name) manages to create out of the united tribes an army which serves him and not the tribal leaders and, on the top of it, manages to promote to the top command position some capable people regardless of their standing in their native tribe, then quite a few things will be possible. After all, Northern China is being ruled by the nomads who conquered it few generations ago and there is certain unhappiness among the native population and even among the descendants of the nomadic conquerors who had been then replaced by the latest conquerors. Plus, Southern China is being ruled by a native dynasty which despises the "barbarians" of the Northern China and may be ready to stab them in a back.
The tribal peoples in that area are hyper-traditional. You'd think without a settled agricultural society, aristocracy would be meaningless, but that's not the case. Geneology in particular is massively important. You can't just hand-wave that and say "the army serves him, not the petty qans". It isn't that simple. All armies are made out of people, who are the products of their upbringing. Tribal loyalty has been inculcated in them since childhood. There is no such thing as pan-nomadic unity, and there never will be. Unification of the steppe could only ever occur by force of arms and when you unify with force, you have dissenters.
Besides, why would the Song prefer a truly 'wild' steppe polity to the semi-sinicized Jurchen Jin?
These theoretical Mongolian veterans, why would they necessarily be more disciplined than the Khwarezmians? They are ad hoc bands too. One defeat and they'll simply melt away, like most nomadic forces. Yes, if they conquer China they can conquer Khwarezm, but they won't be conquering China.
Wait a minute, so you're seriously telling me that a bunch of backwards, pelt-wearing tribals in the steppes of inner Asia are going to be able to topple the Chinese empires (Jin and Sung), the Choson, the Khwarezmian Empire, the Seljuks and the Rus principates? And then mount successful campaigns against Hungary and Poland, two of the strongest kingdoms in Europe?
This would be nonsense even if the various steppe tribes were somehow united. The entire population of the steppes is significantly lower than that of the Jin Empire, let alone the Song. Not to mention they have no siege engines with which to take the great fortified cities of China. Heck, they probably couldn't even mount successful raids in the countryside of China, since they would basically have to either cross the Gobi in force, or defeat the Xi Xia Empire (at the time the height of Tangut power), or fight through Jurchen territory and wheel around, where Liaodong would block their advance to Beijing.
Maybe, just maybe they could defeat Khwarazem, but I doubt it. I can't see the steppe nomads taking the cities of Transoxiana.
Throw in the political fragmentation that has always been the way of the steppe peoples, and this task becomes impossible.
I don’t know about your borders, but I could see it controlling the steppe, maybe Rus or China. If, as the other guys said, they unite, and if China’s weak or preoccupied, they could probably do some raids near the border. Maybe on one of those they get gunpowder? If they can get it to work, or better yet make primitive guns, they could go pretty far. And Rus was fairly weak- Cuman tribes and Lithuanians could occasionally raid them. Maybe a plague hits?
The Chinese states had an army of a million men. Khwarezm even two millions. How many soldiers could the steppe people muster, even if they took every man between 15 and 50? 200,000 maybe? There you have the problem.
Those numbers are rendered irrelevant in an actual war though. You can't field 1, much less 2 million people. You can only field a fraction of that. The Mongols are going to be facing against armies of only a few dozen thousand soldiers at a time. That is workable with their army. If they force the Chinese or the Khwaresmians to fracture their forces even more, they can decimate them even easier.The Chinese states had an army of a million men. Khwarezm even two millions. How many soldiers could the steppe people muster, even if they took every man between 15 and 50? 200,000 maybe? There you have the problem.
Those numbers are rendered irrelevant in an actual war though. You can't field 1, much less 2 million people. You can only field a fraction of that. The Mongols are going to be facing against armies of only a few dozen thousand soldiers at a time. That is workable with their army. If they force the Chinese or the Khwaresmians to fracture their forces even more, they can decimate them even easier.
Hang on, you're not even counting Cumania? That rather large state south of Poland and Ruthenia, east of Hungary, and bordering the Black Sea.
[Edited for minor east-west mixup]
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This DBWI aside (hopefully I'll be forgiven for getting outside the genre), I read biography of Subotai and a broader description of the Mongolian campaigns in China and still can't figure out how did they manage to do what they did. With all steppe tribes united, their initial force was not above the 200,000 (optimistically).
Descriptions of all these huge armies being outmaneuvered and then slaughtered (and there were seemingly at least some talented generals on other side) look like they are taken from the Hollywood fantasy movies like LotR where the right side always wins no matter what. The mass defections of the Jurchen troops (not the ethnic Jurchens, of course) to their side do not look as anything but not very smart fantasy but Mukhali (Genghis' viceroy in China who did most of conquest of the North) ended up with an army in which the Mongols had been slightly more than just a minority (which allowed using the bulk of the Mongolian forces against Khwaresm) and not too many years afterwards Khubilay defeated the Mongolian army of his brother, Arik-Buka, with an army which was predominantly NOT Mongolian. Among other troops, his personal guards included tumen (not of a full strength, of course) composed of the Russians. Just imagine the distances involved.
Or, on the "Western front", they defeated Polovtsy (Kipchaks) whom their Russian neighbors considered very weak warriors and in no time created a new nation, "Tatars", in which the ethnic Mongols were a tiny minority (something like 4 - 5,000 families for the whole Blue/Kipchak Horde) and which was feared by all its neighbors for few centuries.
Fantastic as it may sound, Genghis not only managed to create an army which was well ahead of its time but he also found a bunch of the military geniuses to led it. What's probability of THAT?
OOC: I admit that people would probably be screaming ASB if it didn't actually happen.
What strikes me is the fact, that these Mongols reached with their campaigns so far west. Maybe steppe empire is not 100% ASB but why would tribe from eastern edge of Eurasian Steppe invade Poland?