The only way to keep the Japanese from going Communist, IMO, is to keep them out of WW2. By the end the country had taken such a beating and the Imperial system was so heavily discredited in the eyes of most Japanese people that some sort of revolutionary government was inevitable, even without the Soviets kicking down the door and personally installing it. The most "capitalist" system I can see emerging would be some sort of left-leaning republic that, due to the absence of any other regional patrons (we're assuming that China would go Communist ad thus be aligned to the Soviets) and being in no position to support a serious military by itself, would most likely fall under the influence of the Soviets, or at the most would be completely neutral (the Switzerland of the East has a nice ring to it).
China is a different kettle of fish. The best bet would be to prevent Jingwei from becoming as entrenched as he was. By the end of the war he was seen by most Chinese as the great liberator who had cast out the foreign invaders and there turncoat puppets, whilst his wartime reforms, particularly the economic and military ones, ensured that the KMT were fully entrenched. The Communists, by comparison, despite being a supposed key player in the Popular Front had been largely sidelined, both due to Jingwei's distrust of them and the Party leadership's slavish devotion to Moscow's pro-cooperation line.
If (and that's a big if) the Communists come to power in China then that would mean no Sino-Soviet split, due to Jingwei not being in a position to turn on his erstwhile Communist allies and break ties with Moscow.
Would the Soviets still invade without having heard of Downfall? Their legendarily destructive invasion was made to prevent the Americans from enacting Downfall, and potentially gaining a foothold so close to Russia. That's why they extended it to the entire island, rather than the North as planned. Had Downfall not been approved, would they still have invaded and taken over the entire island.A major POD would be that FDR didn't survived that major stroke and then Truman would of not gone ahead with Opernation Downfall.
The only way to keep the Japanese from going Communist, IMO, is to keep them out of WW2. By the end the country had taken such a beating and the Imperial system was so heavily discredited in the eyes of most Japanese people that some sort of revolutionary government was inevitable, even without the Soviets kicking down the door and personally installing it. The most "capitalist" system I can see emerging would be some sort of left-leaning republic that, due to the absence of any other regional patrons (we're assuming that China would go Communist ad thus be aligned to the Soviets) and being in no position to support a serious military by itself, would most likely fall under the influence of the Soviets, or at the most would be completely neutral (the Switzerland of the East has a nice ring to it).
As for how to get China to go Red, maybe the easiest POD would be Chiang Kai-Shek doesn't die in his failed coup in Canton and causes KMT leftists to unite with the Chinese Communists and as for how to avoid the Workers' and Peasants' Democracy of Japan, just have Taisho Democracy not collapse in the early 1930s.
OOC: I'm not quite sure why you had Wang Jingwei cast as the Great Liberator. Although I appreciate the irony, he was very much pro-Japanese, and what's more, he sided with the Wuhan (Leftist) faction after the Shanghai Massacre. Perhaps if you replaced him with Hu Hanmin, I'd find that more believable.
IC: Overall, you probably would've had your desired scenario, if you managed to have the Shanghai Purge happen earlier. If it had happened in in the late 1920s, or even early 1930s, it would have crippled and destablized China. That might've meant that somebody other than Wang gets into power - maybe Hu, or Zhang. A weaker China means that the Jiangxi Soviet is stronger, and can take over China. That being said, the Jiangxi Soviet was incomptent AF - they'd need more capable leadership, for certain. Such a shame General Mao Zedong was killed in the Beijing Offensive - he could've ended up one of the best leaders of China.
As for making Japan democratic... Maybe if Japan pushed further, and managed to draw the wrath of the USA? Japan was already stalling as of 1941, their supplies bled dry on the Northern Front, their armies destroyed in Shanghai and Kaifeng. A weaker China means that Japan would've been able to push further, and likely win at both Shanghai and Kaifeng. This might've meant that Japan would be more desperate to commit to a victory, even if pyrrhic, and thus, might've invaded everyone nearby, drawing the USA in?
I don't know. It'd be really hard to make Japan democratic, even if it'd be relatively simple to get a Communist China.
OOC: It was mostly for the irony truth be told, as my knowledge of KMT internal politics is fairly limited beyond Chaing=Right and Wang=Left. I was imagining some sort of scenario where, instead of Chaing Kai-shek succeeding in his coup and butchering the Communists, the left-wing KMT forms an alliance with the Communists and turns on Chaing Kai-shek, which results in an uneasy power sharing situation propped up by Soviet support. Because the old pro-Moscow leadership wasn't wiped out through a combination of the right-wing coup and Mao's rise to power in the aftermath, which means that the Communists stick more closely to Moscow's line of subordinating to and cooperating with the KMT, which gives the KMT leadership the opportunity to outmanoeuvre the Communists and eventually turn on them.
OOC: I'm not quite sure why you had Wang Jingwei cast as the Great Liberator. Although I appreciate the irony, he was very much pro-Japanese, and what's more, he sided with the Wuhan (Leftist) faction after the Shanghai Massacre. Perhaps if you replaced him with Hu Hanmin, I'd find that more believable.
IC: Overall, you probably would've had your desired scenario, if you managed to have the Shanghai Purge happen earlier. If it had happened in in the late 1920s, or even early 1930s, it would have crippled and destablized China. That might've meant that somebody other than Wang gets into power - maybe Hu, or Zhang. A weaker China means that the Jiangxi Soviet is stronger, and can take over China. That being said, the Jiangxi Soviet was incomptent AF - they'd need more capable leadership, for certain. Such a shame General Mao Zedong was killed in the Beijing Offensive - he could've ended up one of the best leaders of China.
OOC: Wang was only leftist in the sense that he took Minsheng seriously and was willing to cooperate with just about anyone for China. If Chiang hadn't radicalized the left-right split with his purges, there was a high chance for Wang to have become leader and established a populist regime that is anti-communist.
IC: I have to agree. The canon of the inevitability of KMT supremacy might never have happened if the Shanghai Purge had split the party before Wang was able to forge the conflicting factions into a seamless whole. The capitalist and criminal elements of the east coast that were brought down and subdued might have used the resulting chaos to plunder the treasures of China, leading the poor peasants to rise up. Who knows, we might get some agrarian commune system going given the low industrialization rate of the 1920s.
IC: They'd probably go with an agarian commune, yeah. I mean, everything was more-or-less laid out for them, by the USSR. That being said, if Chiang/Jiang carried out the Shanghai Purge, could the Jiangxi Soviet had a break with the USSR? Assuming they survived, that is.
Hmm, that'd certainly make for an interesting brand of communism. Would others have been more assertive than Zhang? OTL, many communists defected over to the nationalists before the dissolution of the Communist party. Could some of these people have remained and established a different government in TTL?Given how the USSR was funding the KMT in vain hopes they can convert it? Probably.
If Japan stayed out of WWII, they'd likely be left alone for a while. It took China a 2 year stalemate on the Northern Front to break Japanese willpower, and it wasn't until 1944 that Chinese troops retook Beijing.Would the Soviets still invade without having heard of Downfall? Their legendarily destructive invasion was made to prevent the Americans from enacting Downfall, and potentially gaining a foothold so close to Russia. That's why they extended it to the entire island, rather than the North as planned. Had Downfall not been approved, would they still have invaded and taken over the entire island.
So keep Japan out of World War II seems to be the consensus.
What would've happened with Korea and Formosa under a democratic Japan. Would Korea still be communist due to the Soviet-Japanese occupation? Would Formosa still considered be part of Japan?
OOC: Not sure if there was a Sino-Japanese War in this scenario. For all we know Sun Yatsen sold off Manchuria to Japan, so China itself doesn't bother trying to "reclaim" lost territory while it internally develops. At the same time, we don't know how the Korean Provisional Government is. the only way China would have influence over Korea is for KPG to take power postwar, or for Chinese boots on the ground.OOC: How is Democratic China not exerting influence on Korea, and how have they not gone after Taiwan? If Japan lost WWII badly enough to warrant a Soviet Invasion of Japan (Which implies IJN doesn't exist, or IJA for that matter), Japan's losing Taiwan. Getting Taiwan back would be a huge bonus to China, and would likely endear them to the USSR even more than before.
MODS! We've got another one!OOC: Posting as a pro-WPDJ troll (basically Japanese *kahing)
IC: What do you mean, Japan could have become capitalist democracy? The Great Revolution under the supreme Comrade Sanzo Nosaka was inevitable! The neo-imperialists in the so-called Republic of China along with their lackies in the Ryukyus, Kyushu, and Formosa are doomed to be trodden under by the glory of the Japanese people and their Soviet comrades! The traitors in Naha and Nagasaki will burn along with their paymasters in Nanking, New Delhi, Canberra, and Washington. Japan need not capitalist democracy, need not whaling! Glory to the Workers and Peasants Democracy of Japan!