In 1996, General Colin Powell defeated President Bill Clinton by a razor-thin margin in the popular vote. While Powell did relatively well in the Northeast, he just carried New Jersey and New Hampshire by narrow margins. Clinton almost won South Carolina, but Strom Thurmond appeared with Powell 3 days before the election, praising his strong patriotism. Powell's victory in Texas was very controversial as well. Despite being endorsed by both Republican Senators and popular Governor Bush, he won by a margin of 1,230 votes only. After the first recount, his victory was narrowed down to just 557 votes. Then the Supreme Court decided that the recount would be stopped, thus giving Powell the presidency.
Colin Powell / George Allen (R) 282 EV, 46.8%
Bill Clinton / Al Gore (D) 256 EV, 46.1%
Ross Perot / Lenora Fulani (Ref) 0 EV, 5.1%
Powell was very popular in 2000. On the domestic front, he formed the famous moderate coalition between DLC Democrats and moderate Republicans, to put forward his agenda. Conservatives did think of challenging Powell for reelection after he was revealed to be pro-choice in 1997. However, the North Korean crisis following the sudden death of Kim Jong-il in January 2000 paved the way for Powell's easy renomination.
For the Democrats, heavyweights including House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and former Vice President Al Gore refused to run. Eventually, freshman Senator John Edwards won the Democratic nomination. Governor George W. Bush sent Karl Rove to Washington to assist the Powell campaign, whose team found Edwards having sex with a campaign staffer in September 2000 and uploaded the video onto the Internet. Edwards apologized publicly, but refused to resign from the ticket. Democrats stayed away from Edwards that year, to avoid even more devastating loss., Winning MA and RI within a 2% margin, Edwards carried Washington DC with only 42.3% of the vote, compared to 39.2% for Powell and 17.7% for Nader. Clinton however proved to be a great campaigner, saving some Democrats in danger from the Republican sweep of 2000, narrowly denying the GOP a filibuster-proof Senate majority (which would have been useless anyway as Powell ruled with his moderate coalition).
Colin Powell / George Allen (R) 519 EV, 55.1%
John Edwards / Paul Wellstone (D) 19 EV, 35.6%
Ralph Nader / Jello Biafra (G) 0 EV, 7.2%
Pat Buchanan / Ezola B. Foster (Ref) 0 EV, 1.6%
After Powell's landslide reelection, Powell-care was passed in early 2002 with bi-partisan support, but that led to a severe split between the Allen wing and Powell wing of the GOP. And then Powell was assassinated by a white supremest in Louisiana, who shouted "Death to the Communist", a month before the 2002 midterms. Despite that the nation rallied behind Vice President Allen, Allen would be defeated narrowly for reelection by Democrat __________ after he surprisingly dumped John McCain from the ticket and chose John Ashcroft as his running mate, leading to McCain's independent candidacy.
What would happen if Powell did not run in 1996? Polls as late as in May 1996 showed that he led all Republican presidential hopefuls except Powell. Powell almost declined to run due to his wife, but she suddenly changed her mind due to reasons that remain unknown. Or perhaps alternatively, Clinton won either New Jersey or Texas to defeat Powell while losing the popular vote. Without President Powell, would the GOP be split between moderates and conservatives like in OTL?
Also, how would Clinton's 2nd term be like? Who would the Democrats and Republicans nominate in 2000?