DBWI: Clinton reelected in 1996?

In 1996, General Colin Powell defeated President Bill Clinton by a razor-thin margin in the popular vote. While Powell did relatively well in the Northeast, he just carried New Jersey and New Hampshire by narrow margins. Clinton almost won South Carolina, but Strom Thurmond appeared with Powell 3 days before the election, praising his strong patriotism. Powell's victory in Texas was very controversial as well. Despite being endorsed by both Republican Senators and popular Governor Bush, he won by a margin of 1,230 votes only. After the first recount, his victory was narrowed down to just 557 votes. Then the Supreme Court decided that the recount would be stopped, thus giving Powell the presidency.

genusmap.php

Colin Powell / George Allen (R) 282 EV, 46.8%
Bill Clinton / Al Gore (D) 256 EV, 46.1%
Ross Perot / Lenora Fulani (Ref) 0 EV, 5.1%

Powell was very popular in 2000. On the domestic front, he formed the famous moderate coalition between DLC Democrats and moderate Republicans, to put forward his agenda. Conservatives did think of challenging Powell for reelection after he was revealed to be pro-choice in 1997. However, the North Korean crisis following the sudden death of Kim Jong-il in January 2000 paved the way for Powell's easy renomination.

For the Democrats, heavyweights including House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt and former Vice President Al Gore refused to run. Eventually, freshman Senator John Edwards won the Democratic nomination. Governor George W. Bush sent Karl Rove to Washington to assist the Powell campaign, whose team found Edwards having sex with a campaign staffer in September 2000 and uploaded the video onto the Internet. Edwards apologized publicly, but refused to resign from the ticket. Democrats stayed away from Edwards that year, to avoid even more devastating loss., Winning MA and RI within a 2% margin, Edwards carried Washington DC with only 42.3% of the vote, compared to 39.2% for Powell and 17.7% for Nader. Clinton however proved to be a great campaigner, saving some Democrats in danger from the Republican sweep of 2000, narrowly denying the GOP a filibuster-proof Senate majority (which would have been useless anyway as Powell ruled with his moderate coalition).

genusmap.php

Colin Powell / George Allen (R) 519 EV, 55.1%
John Edwards / Paul Wellstone (D) 19 EV, 35.6%
Ralph Nader / Jello Biafra (G) 0 EV, 7.2%
Pat Buchanan / Ezola B. Foster (Ref) 0 EV, 1.6%


After Powell's landslide reelection, Powell-care was passed in early 2002 with bi-partisan support, but that led to a severe split between the Allen wing and Powell wing of the GOP. And then Powell was assassinated by a white supremest in Louisiana, who shouted "Death to the Communist", a month before the 2002 midterms. Despite that the nation rallied behind Vice President Allen, Allen would be defeated narrowly for reelection by Democrat __________ after he surprisingly dumped John McCain from the ticket and chose John Ashcroft as his running mate, leading to McCain's independent candidacy.

What would happen if Powell did not run in 1996? Polls as late as in May 1996 showed that he led all Republican presidential hopefuls except Powell. Powell almost declined to run due to his wife, but she suddenly changed her mind due to reasons that remain unknown. Or perhaps alternatively, Clinton won either New Jersey or Texas to defeat Powell while losing the popular vote. Without President Powell, would the GOP be split between moderates and conservatives like in OTL?

Also, how would Clinton's 2nd term be like? Who would the Democrats and Republicans nominate in 2000?
 
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President Powell really struck the death blow to the Democratic Party. Between the GOP getting the youth and minority vote, and Edwards sparking the string of scandals in 2000, it's doubtful unless the GOP splits, We'll see Ashcroft succeed President Allen this fall.
 
OOC: Ignoring the fact that Powell running for President is out of character, Strom Thurmond appearing with Colin Powell? The man was so racist he switched parties because of it. I think Powell can win in South Carolina anyways, though. Edwards might carry Vermont as well.
 
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President Powell really struck the death blow to the Democratic Party. Between the GOP getting the youth and minority vote, and Edwards sparking the string of scandals in 2000, it's doubtful unless the GOP splits, We'll see Ashcroft succeed President Allen this fall.
Well, Allen was just lucky enough to have lost in 2004. 2008 was a bad year for the incumbent party, coupled with the economic recession [1]. It was not surprising for him to pull a Cleveland. Just 2 years ago, Democrats gained 50 seats in the House, just 4 seats short of regaining the chamber. Allen's popularity rebounds simply due to the economic recovery. Anyway, I won't say Ashcroft would 100% win this fall. His polls remain neck-to-neck with either Democratic frontrunners. A 55% approval rating for President Allen may not transfer well. Also looking forward to see if Democrats would regain the House under the leadership of House Minority Leader Rahm Emanuel.

[1] No financial tsunami however. Also, Greenspan has retired in 2000 due to "personal reasons". No Bush tax cuts as well.
 
If Powell is the Republican nominee than there is a social conservative third party.

OOC: I have Powell remained silent on abortion before the election of 1996. While in the election of 2000, conservatives decided not to challenge Powell due to North Korea, Pat Buchanan did perform better than in OTL.
 
"Also, how would Clinton's 2nd term be like? Who would the Democrats and Republicans nominate in 2000?[/QUOTE]

If Clinton managed to serve 2 consecutive terms, his second term would be completely different to his OTL second spell in office, not having to deal with Katrina and the ressession of 2008.

Instead, assuming the economy pans out as it did in OTL, Clinton's second term is as uneventful as the latter half of his first term in OTL. One thing to consider however, is the rumours of infidelity that surrounded Clinton after he left office for the first time. I wonder how he'd react to that as a sitting president? He wouldn't be able to concentrate on damage control as far as that's concerned-he'll have the presidency to deal with, along with the hitened interest from the media in to his private life.

Come 2000, Clinton (having done little in his second term) isn't overwhelmingly popular. Gore would probably end up the nominee for the Dems and if Powell decides not to run in 1996, the nomination could well be his in 2000. This would result in a massive Powell win-after all, even Clinton (who was quite popular in 1996), still lost the election. As much as I admire former VP Gore's journalism work since leaving office, I don't think he's an affective enough campaigner to beat Powell.

I'm not sure who the GOP nominee is if it isn't Powell. Allen perhaps? Bush? Mckaine could actually have a chance here.

Ooc-Clinton would almost certainly try and pull a Cleveland/Nixon here and I think their's a high probability he'd manage it.
 
So here's the list of presidents so far:


42 Bill Clinton (Jan 20th, 1993-Jan 20th, 1997)-VP: Al Gore

43 Colin Powell (Jan 20th, 1997-Ap 12th, 2001) VP: George Allen

44 George Allen (Ap 12th, 2001-Jan 20th, 2005) VP:John Mckaine

45 Bill Clinton (Jan 20th, 2005-Jan 20th, 2009) VP: Bob Kerry

46 George Allen (Jan 20th, 2009-Jan 20th, 2013) VP: John Ashcroft
 
OOC: I have Powell remained silent on abortion before the election of 1996. While in the election of 2000, conservatives decided not to challenge Powell due to North Korea, Pat Buchanan did perform better than in OTL.

How can you keep silent on abortion? The question is going to come up. People feel strongly about this issue. He can not avoid taking questions.
 

Glen

Moderator
OOC: BTW, congrats to Tony for a well written opening premise for an actual DBWI!
 
First of all, the Supreme Court did not stop the recount. They ruled the selective recount that Clinton was doing was not valid, and gave him the option of either doing a state-wide recount or accepting the original count.

Second of all, the GOP, like the Democrats is a BIg Tent Party so you will always have divergent views and wings.

Now the conservatives have been happy enough to support Powell. His military background and the resurgence of respect it has led to the institution among the young has really helped balance out the more "moderate" or more truthfully liberal policies he has pushed.

That being said, the Old Guard can't expect this support to continue much longer if we don't get our turn soon. :mad::mad::mad:
 
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