Wait for the poll. Meech and Charlottetown have passed. There is no Bloc.
Incumbent Prime Minister: Brian Mulroney (PC)
Incumbent Prime Minister: Brian Mulroney (PC)
Wait for the poll. Either Meech or Charlottetown have passed. There is no Bloc.
Incumbent Prime Minister: Brian Mulroney (PC)
^ That's probably pretty good analysis, but Manning didn't particularly care for Mulroney either. The Reform Party's whole reason for existence was because many of the right believed that Mulroney was too far left, and that the Red Tory-dominated Mulroney Government was too liberal to be called a conservative. Manning would end up being a pain in the ass for Mulroney much of the time, unless he stomached his price for the better of the nation. Manning is an honorable man, but he ain't that honorable.
The Liberals would here be in disarray. Free Trade and the GST pass and the NDP falls to pieces, and they STILL get beaten! Chretien would get sacked, fast, and the Liberals would probably proclaim the end of the era of Trudeau and his descendants. That leaves a leadership void, however - but with guys like Brian Tobin around, that might not be a void for very long. Paul Martin could make an early rise, and they might also want to look at drafting some provincial Liberal leaders. (Lynn McLeod, after the 1995 drubbing the Ontario Liberals took from Mike Harris, might be one likely cabinet minister - though she'll have to tone down her rhetoric a bit.)
The NDP staggered through the 1990s because the Liberals had such a dominance. With them in disarray and Reform trying to ram conservatism down Mulroney's throat, they might have an opportunity to come back. They better get a better leader than McDonough or McLaughlin. Layton shows up a decade earlier, maybe? Or perhaps Broadbent gets coaxed out of retirement? Maybe a big shot union boss like Sid Ryan, Bob White or Buzz Hargrove, maybe?
For the Liberals, if they were to be poaching from provincial politics, why not snag Lawrence Decore from Alberta (but then due to butterflies he could be Premier Decore, and thus be unavailable, but then Ralph Klein would be...), Frank McKenna from New Brunswick or a young up-and-comer from BC, Gordon Campbell?
McKenna would be a good choice. Campbell, not so much. Decore might be a high-profile candidate just to crack the Reform hold on Alberta somewhat, but I don't see him as a national leader. Me stupid for forgetting about McKenna. The chances of a Liberal Premier in Alberta post-NEP are close to none, and Klein IIRC is premier by now.
The NDP might decide to turn to the right and snag Roy Romanow from Saskatchewan (he wasn't yet Premier, and could be lured to Ottawa instead) or Ray Martin from Alberta. (The Alberta NDP got 0 seats in the 1993 provincial election, about 2-4 less than they usually get. Martin might decide that he'd do better in Ottawa than in Edmonton)
Those are possibilities, yes. But if it were me running the NEP, I'd get Broadbent back for a while so that the NDP can well groom his successor. That successor could be Romonow or Martin, though......
The next federal election would probably be in 1995 or 1996. The Reform Party would end up being sort of like a cowboy version of the OTL 21st century Bloc, a regional annoyance that ensures that neither of the big federal parties can gain majority support, and that whichever one is in power either has to get the support of that regional party or get the official opposition to not oppose them. Very unstable, as Canadians are starting to discover...
Yep, pretty much. The Reform Party had serious problems trying to brush the level of vitirol they were accused of off. Manning was not a bad guy, but some of the MPs Reform brought up were nuts, and the Canadian media (which tends to mostly side with the Liberals or Red Tories) would be fairly quick to point that out. It's part of the problem that guys like Harper face. They would end up being an annoyance, but an annoyance that tends to lean towards helping the Progressive Conservatives, because for many of the Reform guys suupporting the Liberals would be an insult.
And if the Liberals were to permanently renounce Trudeau, they could well get the Reform party to join them. Just think, people like Vic Toews, Stephen Harper and Stockwell Day as Liberals, running the government, with the (Red) Tories and the NDP stuck in opposition...
It'll be a cold day in hell before Harper and Toews join the Liberals, trust me. Reform came to be because of the National Energy Program, which even 30 years later still has not been forgotten or forgiven in Alberta. The Alberta Liberal Party is practically DOA, as witnessed by its latest leadership debate which saw something like only 10,000 people involved in its leadership race, and leans well right of the national Liberals anyways. I don't see there being any hope for Reformers among the Liberals.
McKenna would be a good choice. Campbell, not so much. Decore might be a high-profile candidate just to crack the Reform hold on Alberta somewhat, but I don't see him as a national leader. Me stupid for forgetting about McKenna. The chances of a Liberal Premier in Alberta post-NEP are close to none, and Klein IIRC is premier by now.
Those are possibilities, yes. But if it were me running the NEP, I'd get Broadbent back for a while so that the NDP can well groom his successor. That successor could be Romonow or Martin, though......
Yep, pretty much. The Reform Party had serious problems trying to brush the level of vitirol they were accused of off. Manning was not a bad guy, but some of the MPs Reform brought up were nuts, and the Canadian media (which tends to mostly side with the Liberals or Red Tories) would be fairly quick to point that out. It's part of the problem that guys like Harper face. They would end up being an annoyance, but an annoyance that tends to lean towards helping the Progressive Conservatives, because for many of the Reform guys suupporting the Liberals would be an insult.
It'll be a cold day in hell before Harper and Toews join the Liberals, trust me. Reform came to be because of the National Energy Program, which even 30 years later still has not been forgotten or forgiven in Alberta. The Alberta Liberal Party is practically DOA, as witnessed by its latest leadership debate which saw something like only 10,000 people involved in its leadership race, and leans well right of the national Liberals anyways. I don't see there being any hope for Reformers among the Liberals.
Klein became Premier in 1992. There was a provincial election in 1993. The Liberals got 32 out of 83 seats and came a close second in at least a dozen more. Decore was the most right-wing leader of the Alberta Liberals in at least a generation, (Decore ran to the right of Klein...) and the most successful since the early 1920s. Him winning in 1993 isn't ASB. But he lost and his successor only kept half of the seats he won in the following election, and when that guy got punted, his ex-tory successor only won 7. Which is roughly what the ALP has at present.
You could also pick Klein (Liberal when he was mayor of Calgary, switched to the Tories to get elected to the Legislature) or maybe Clyde Wells (Premier of Newfoundland)