DBWI: Canadian federal election, 1993

Can-Poll, 1993


  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .
Wait for the poll. Meech and Charlottetown have passed. There is no Bloc.

Incumbent Prime Minister: Brian Mulroney (PC)
 
I usually vote against the ones I don't like. Libertarian, anarchist or Green. there wasn't a Green or anarchist option. I chose Libertarian.(Given the choices)
 
Wait for the poll. Either Meech or Charlottetown have passed. There is no Bloc.

Incumbent Prime Minister: Brian Mulroney (PC)

(If the Meech Lake Accord had passed, there would have been no retry at Charlottetown.)

You still missed one.

The wild card from the west.

Reform, led by Preston Manning. Got one MP (Deb Grey) in a by-election prior to 1993, and then got 50 in 1993 IOTL. They will probably do nearly as good still, even with the incumbent government being still sort of popular.

Guess which way I'm voting?

End result, Tories lose 40-50 seats, but the Liberals don't make many gains out of it. NDP takes a hit in Ontario. (Bob Rae wasn't very popular in 1993, and the federal NDP got hurt because of that. Their near-annihilation foreshadowed defeat of the ONDP quite nicely.) So in the end, a Tory minority, probably backed by Reform.

My take on the results:

Tory 127.
Liberal 120
NDP 9
Reform 45.
Total 301.
Tory + Reform 172, which is roughly what the Tories had before the election.

Mulroney will be pissed, but he'd sooner work with Manning than Chretien. Manning will never back the Liberals... And neither Manning nor Mulroney would want another election, so they'll each put up with the other... McDonough and the NDP are simply irrelevant.
 
^ That's probably pretty good analysis, but Manning didn't particularly care for Mulroney either. The Reform Party's whole reason for existence was because many of the right believed that Mulroney was too far left, and that the Red Tory-dominated Mulroney Government was too liberal to be called a conservative. Manning would end up being a pain in the ass for Mulroney much of the time, unless he stomached his price for the better of the nation. Manning is an honorable man, but he ain't that honorable.

The Liberals would here be in disarray. Free Trade and the GST pass and the NDP falls to pieces, and they STILL get beaten! Chretien would get sacked, fast, and the Liberals would probably proclaim the end of the era of Trudeau and his descendants. That leaves a leadership void, however - but with guys like Brian Tobin around, that might not be a void for very long. Paul Martin could make an early rise, and they might also want to look at drafting some provincial Liberal leaders. (Lynn McLeod, after the 1995 drubbing the Ontario Liberals took from Mike Harris, might be one likely cabinet minister - though she'll have to tone down her rhetoric a bit.)

The NDP staggered through the 1990s because the Liberals had such a dominance. With them in disarray and Reform trying to ram conservatism down Mulroney's throat, they might have an opportunity to come back. They better get a better leader than McDonough or McLaughlin. Layton shows up a decade earlier, maybe? Or perhaps Broadbent gets coaxed out of retirement? Maybe a big shot union boss like Sid Ryan, Bob White or Buzz Hargrove, maybe?
 
^ That's probably pretty good analysis, but Manning didn't particularly care for Mulroney either. The Reform Party's whole reason for existence was because many of the right believed that Mulroney was too far left, and that the Red Tory-dominated Mulroney Government was too liberal to be called a conservative. Manning would end up being a pain in the ass for Mulroney much of the time, unless he stomached his price for the better of the nation. Manning is an honorable man, but he ain't that honorable.

The Liberals would here be in disarray. Free Trade and the GST pass and the NDP falls to pieces, and they STILL get beaten! Chretien would get sacked, fast, and the Liberals would probably proclaim the end of the era of Trudeau and his descendants. That leaves a leadership void, however - but with guys like Brian Tobin around, that might not be a void for very long. Paul Martin could make an early rise, and they might also want to look at drafting some provincial Liberal leaders. (Lynn McLeod, after the 1995 drubbing the Ontario Liberals took from Mike Harris, might be one likely cabinet minister - though she'll have to tone down her rhetoric a bit.)

The NDP staggered through the 1990s because the Liberals had such a dominance. With them in disarray and Reform trying to ram conservatism down Mulroney's throat, they might have an opportunity to come back. They better get a better leader than McDonough or McLaughlin. Layton shows up a decade earlier, maybe? Or perhaps Broadbent gets coaxed out of retirement? Maybe a big shot union boss like Sid Ryan, Bob White or Buzz Hargrove, maybe?

For the Liberals, if they were to be poaching from provincial politics, why not snag Lawrence Decore from Alberta (but then due to butterflies he could be Premier Decore, and thus be unavailable, but then Ralph Klein would be...), Frank McKenna from New Brunswick or a young up-and-comer from BC, Gordon Campbell?

The NDP might decide to turn to the right and snag Roy Romanow from Saskatchewan (he wasn't yet Premier, and could be lured to Ottawa instead) or Ray Martin from Alberta. (The Alberta NDP got 0 seats in the 1993 provincial election, about 2-4 less than they usually get. Martin might decide that he'd do better in Ottawa than in Edmonton)

The next federal election would probably be in 1995 or 1996. The Reform Party would end up being sort of like a cowboy version of the OTL 21st century Bloc, a regional annoyance that ensures that neither of the big federal parties can gain majority support, and that whichever one is in power either has to get the support of that regional party or get the official opposition to not oppose them. Very unstable, as Canadians are starting to discover...

And if the Liberals were to permanently renounce Trudeau, they could well get the Reform party to join them. Just think, people like Vic Toews, Stephen Harper and Stockwell Day as Liberals, running the government, with the (Red) Tories and the NDP stuck in opposition...
 
For the Liberals, if they were to be poaching from provincial politics, why not snag Lawrence Decore from Alberta (but then due to butterflies he could be Premier Decore, and thus be unavailable, but then Ralph Klein would be...), Frank McKenna from New Brunswick or a young up-and-comer from BC, Gordon Campbell?

McKenna would be a good choice. Campbell, not so much. Decore might be a high-profile candidate just to crack the Reform hold on Alberta somewhat, but I don't see him as a national leader. Me stupid for forgetting about McKenna. The chances of a Liberal Premier in Alberta post-NEP are close to none, and Klein IIRC is premier by now.

The NDP might decide to turn to the right and snag Roy Romanow from Saskatchewan (he wasn't yet Premier, and could be lured to Ottawa instead) or Ray Martin from Alberta. (The Alberta NDP got 0 seats in the 1993 provincial election, about 2-4 less than they usually get. Martin might decide that he'd do better in Ottawa than in Edmonton)

Those are possibilities, yes. But if it were me running the NEP, I'd get Broadbent back for a while so that the NDP can well groom his successor. That successor could be Romonow or Martin, though......

The next federal election would probably be in 1995 or 1996. The Reform Party would end up being sort of like a cowboy version of the OTL 21st century Bloc, a regional annoyance that ensures that neither of the big federal parties can gain majority support, and that whichever one is in power either has to get the support of that regional party or get the official opposition to not oppose them. Very unstable, as Canadians are starting to discover...

Yep, pretty much. The Reform Party had serious problems trying to brush the level of vitirol they were accused of off. Manning was not a bad guy, but some of the MPs Reform brought up were nuts, and the Canadian media (which tends to mostly side with the Liberals or Red Tories) would be fairly quick to point that out. It's part of the problem that guys like Harper face. They would end up being an annoyance, but an annoyance that tends to lean towards helping the Progressive Conservatives, because for many of the Reform guys suupporting the Liberals would be an insult.

And if the Liberals were to permanently renounce Trudeau, they could well get the Reform party to join them. Just think, people like Vic Toews, Stephen Harper and Stockwell Day as Liberals, running the government, with the (Red) Tories and the NDP stuck in opposition...

It'll be a cold day in hell before Harper and Toews join the Liberals, trust me. Reform came to be because of the National Energy Program, which even 30 years later still has not been forgotten or forgiven in Alberta. The Alberta Liberal Party is practically DOA, as witnessed by its latest leadership debate which saw something like only 10,000 people involved in its leadership race, and leans well right of the national Liberals anyways. I don't see there being any hope for Reformers among the Liberals.
 
McKenna would be a good choice. Campbell, not so much. Decore might be a high-profile candidate just to crack the Reform hold on Alberta somewhat, but I don't see him as a national leader. Me stupid for forgetting about McKenna. The chances of a Liberal Premier in Alberta post-NEP are close to none, and Klein IIRC is premier by now.

Klein became Premier in 1992. There was a provincial election in 1993. The Liberals got 32 out of 83 seats and came a close second in at least a dozen more. Decore was the most right-wing leader of the Alberta Liberals in at least a generation, (Decore ran to the right of Klein...) and the most successful since the early 1920s. Him winning in 1993 isn't ASB. But he lost and his successor only kept half of the seats he won in the following election, and when that guy got punted, his ex-tory successor only won 7. Which is roughly what the ALP has at present.

You could also pick Klein (Liberal when he was mayor of Calgary, switched to the Tories to get elected to the Legislature) or maybe Clyde Wells (Premier of Newfoundland)

Those are possibilities, yes. But if it were me running the NEP, I'd get Broadbent back for a while so that the NDP can well groom his successor. That successor could be Romonow or Martin, though......

Doer is another possibility, but is sure as hell won't be Rae... not sure if Broadbent would go for it though. The NDP might have to start from scratch.

Yep, pretty much. The Reform Party had serious problems trying to brush the level of vitirol they were accused of off. Manning was not a bad guy, but some of the MPs Reform brought up were nuts, and the Canadian media (which tends to mostly side with the Liberals or Red Tories) would be fairly quick to point that out. It's part of the problem that guys like Harper face. They would end up being an annoyance, but an annoyance that tends to lean towards helping the Progressive Conservatives, because for many of the Reform guys suupporting the Liberals would be an insult.

Reform supporting Mulroney would have to be on an "issue by issue" basis. If Mulroney wants to do something that Reform won't like, then he'd need to get someone else to support it. Most likely the Liberals. Which is why there would be another election in 2 years, three tops. It'll come whenever the power vacuum at the top of the Liberal Party gets filled.

It'll be a cold day in hell before Harper and Toews join the Liberals, trust me. Reform came to be because of the National Energy Program, which even 30 years later still has not been forgotten or forgiven in Alberta. The Alberta Liberal Party is practically DOA, as witnessed by its latest leadership debate which saw something like only 10,000 people involved in its leadership race, and leans well right of the national Liberals anyways. I don't see there being any hope for Reformers among the Liberals.

If they were to be something like Campbell's BC Liberals or Decore's Alberta Liberals (or Wall's Saskatchewan Party, which is the same thing, just renamed) then they would be pretty much the Reform Party with a name that doesn't scare off Ontario and Quebec. Though I do admit that it would be pretty unlikely. ASB even. But then, I'd kill to see the look on Trudeau's face if it were to happen.

The Alberta Liberals basically fucked themselves in 1995 or 1996 when they dumped Decore and shifted pretty far to the left. Klein got a ten year free ride, and the Alberta Liberals have been lucky to get half of the votes and a quarter of the seats that they got in 1993. I'm actually surprised they (the ALP) got 7 in 2007. I thought that the total would be somewhat lower.
 
Klein became Premier in 1992. There was a provincial election in 1993. The Liberals got 32 out of 83 seats and came a close second in at least a dozen more. Decore was the most right-wing leader of the Alberta Liberals in at least a generation, (Decore ran to the right of Klein...) and the most successful since the early 1920s. Him winning in 1993 isn't ASB. But he lost and his successor only kept half of the seats he won in the following election, and when that guy got punted, his ex-tory successor only won 7. Which is roughly what the ALP has at present.

You could also pick Klein (Liberal when he was mayor of Calgary, switched to the Tories to get elected to the Legislature) or maybe Clyde Wells (Premier of Newfoundland)

Ralph Klein as PM would be, well, interesting.
 
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