DBWI: Can Nippon pull a Tanzimat?

My apologies; I know there's been kind of fad of "What if X pulled a Tanzimat?" threads as of late, but given the unique situation of the island Shogunate relative to more popular potential "Non-Abrahamic" Empires I thought we could cover it. Especially with the latest news about about the latest flare-up of violence on Kyushu between the Kirishitan separatists and local government forces.

As I'm sure you're all aware (But just to give a quick context for the conversation), Nippon had been in a state of self-imposed Anti-Western isolation for centuries following the rise of the Tokugawa Shogunate, in an effort to crack down on the Jesuit as a potential dissident/destabilizing element in Nipponese society, protect the domestic merchant class from foreign competition, and insure the continuation of his newly-established caste system without running the risk of introducing new ideas to the Daiymo which could lead to a new Sengoku Jihdi. While it did wonders for the nation's stability; unlike its Korean and Chinese neighbors Japan would "enjoy" nothing that could remotely be called a civil war or an invasion, this self-imposed hermit status ultimately lead to technological and cultural stagnation, especially since paternal inheritance of social position was strictly enforced thus preventing the rise of many talented low-borns to the bureaucracy or crafts. This meant that, by the time the three great naval powers blew open the trade ports of China and Korea in the Opium and Hashish Wars in the early 1800's and turned their attention to the Isles, Nippon remained essentially a pike-and-shot society, who's unpracticed Samurai warriors couldn't stand up to French cannon and who's artisans were quickly driven out of business by British and Ottoman workshops, exploiting the diffused power of the Daiymo to carve the nation into spheres of commerical-political influence by 1900, leaving the shogun as as powerless a figurehead as the Muhgal Emperor in the Red Fort.

The question is though; did Japan have the cultural dynamism and economic factors to effectively "pull a Tanzimat"; industrializing its economy and streamlining its government and military to the point it could join the "Big Six" Great Powers in the Imperial game? Given their lack of domestic raw materials and the inability to get them without having a navy capable of projecting power onto the mainland (Where they'd have to face off against a much more populous China), I hestitate to say its possible even if they continued trading with and adopting the innovations of the Dutch.

(OOC: In case it wasen't obvious, "Pulling a Tanzimat" is TTL's equivilent of "Pulling a Meiji", since of course Emperor Meiji didn't 'pull' anything)
 
Alien Space Bats. Japan is not in Europe.

OOC: Unsurprisingly, even being in Europe didn't magically guarantee the Tanzimat reforms would be successful...
 
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Sure, Nippon pulls a Tanzimat... then what? The whole reason the Ottoman Empire's been able to survive to today is its resources, such as, of course, oil, which since its nationalized is the main source of the government's income. Nippon? What does it have? Any industrializing Japan would be on a collision course with the surrounding countries, which strikes me as a good way to get bitchslapped by China.
 
Sure, Nippon pulls a Tanzimat... then what? The whole reason the Ottoman Empire's been able to survive to today is its resources, such as, of course, oil, which since its nationalized is the main source of the government's income. Nippon? What does it have? Any industrializing Japan would be on a collision course with the surrounding countries, which strikes me as a good way to get bitchslapped by China.

True, the Ottomans aren't as much of an "Empire" as they used to be; than again, I could say that same thing about their British, French, and Neatherlander contemporaries. The old Imperial system really died with the "Summertime of Nations" that rocked the world in the 80's (Though, really, I'd argue it was more the result of an ideological shift than the inability to hold the Empires together if they'd REALLY wanted to... but at a certain point peoples put under "tutelage" status have to be considered to have graduated).

But its the natural resources issue that is really salient here. As far as I understand it, Japan really dosen't have much in the way of coal, iron, copper, or raw textile materials (At least one of which is really nessicery to jump-start early industrialization), and terrain-wise was really hemmed in it's ability to adopt the agricultural industrialization-consolidation Revolution even if they do manage to reform the feudal system to make it possible, which would have required some kind of more centralized state apparatus, in my opinion. Maybe Hideyoshi manages to hold out longer and successfully conquer the Korean Penninsula? There's good ore in the northern half, I know that much... if they could assimilate the region like the Brits did with Scotland, the French with Occitan, or the Ottomans with the Mesopotamia, perhaps that'd give them a base to work off?

Than again, over the centuries they'd probably get "bitchslapped" by the Chinese at some point or another and have the land taken back. They'd be better at holding off the Manchu than the Koreans were though, that's for sure.
 
True, the Ottomans aren't as much of an "Empire" as they used to be; than again, I could say that same thing about their British, French, and Neatherlander contemporaries. The old Imperial system really died with the "Summertime of Nations" that rocked the world in the 80's (Though, really, I'd argue it was more the result of an ideological shift than the inability to hold the Empires together if they'd REALLY wanted to... but at a certain point peoples put under "tutelage" status have to be considered to have graduated).

But its the natural resources issue that is really salient here. As far as I understand it, Japan really dosen't have much in the way of coal, iron, copper, or raw textile materials (At least one of which is really nessicery to jump-start early industrialization), and terrain-wise was really hemmed in it's ability to adopt the agricultural industrialization-consolidation Revolution even if they do manage to reform the feudal system to make it possible, which would have required some kind of more centralized state apparatus, in my opinion. Maybe Hideyoshi manages to hold out longer and successfully conquer the Korean Penninsula? There's good ore in the northern half, I know that much... if they could assimilate the region like the Brits did with Scotland, the French with Occitan, or the Ottomans with the Mesopotamia, perhaps that'd give them a base to work off?

Than again, over the centuries they'd probably get "bitchslapped" by the Chinese at some point or another and have the land taken back. They'd be better at holding off the Manchu than the Koreans were though, that's for sure.
Eh, one could argue that the Ottomans are better off without the Balkans. Their center of gravity shifted to the Middle East long ago, and they retain Mesopotamia and the Levant, and that's the important thing. Now the clusterfuck in the Balkans following the Ottoman withdrawal is Russia's responsibility, and House Romanov hasn't done any better of a job than House Osman.

I guess any rise of Japan would necessitate the Chinese to be critically weakened at some point. Maybe that could involve a failed Qing modernization, or maybe the Qing fail to consolidate power after the fall of the Ming. Personally I see Nippon as doomed to ultimately be a sphere ling of China; the Shogun only barely crushed the Yamato Restoration protests a year back with the help of the Emperor.
 
Eh, one could argue that the Ottomans are better off without the Balkans. Their center of gravity shifted to the Middle East long ago, and they retain Mesopotamia and the Levant, and that's the important thing. Now the clusterfuck in the Balkans following the Ottoman withdrawal is Russia's responsibility, and House Romanov hasn't done any better of a job than House Osman.

I guess any rise of Japan would necessitate the Chinese to be critically weakened at some point. Maybe that could involve a failed Qing modernization, or maybe the Qing fail to consolidate power after the fall of the Ming. Personally I see Nippon as doomed to ultimately be a sphere ling of China; the Shogun only barely crushed the Yamato Restoration protests a year back with the help of the Emperor.

Agreed. They certainly are better off without that excess weight, the same way the Western European nations really benefited by shedding their unprofitable African colonies (Though, that's really only possible thanks to the Stockholm System and its guarantee of global free trade and freedom of the seas... something I'm a little worried about with all these new tariffs the Commonwealth and United States are throwing up). Its alot harder to say the Balkans are better off without them, what with the Martyers of the Golden Metropol of Constantine trying to implement their deluded version of an Orthodox theocracy and the local Muslims lashing out at the peaceful population in their tit-for-tat. At least when the Ottomans were in charge the place was more stable than Nippon or the Indian subcontinent...

But back to the topic at hand. There really is a small window between when China is crippled enough so as to leave a potential vacuum in Asia and when the Imperial powers turned their attention to Nippon; really only 10-15 years, depending on just when you consider the islands fully "opened". It really would be an AHC to see if somebody could get a modernized Shongunate with that short of a time frame... maybe you'd need to have European energies directed elsewhere? Trying to impose direct control on China while Nippon becomes a client under a single Imperial Power could do the trick.

In that case, who do you think they'd be most likely to be successful under? The British would be able to funnel in the most available capital (The Golden Cavalry of St. George riding to the miraculous rescue in the usual AH cliche style of being far too generous with interests rates in exchange for naval basing concessions), but the French were generally far more likely to arm their clients with proper European military technology and drill, and the Ottomans far more open to introducing modern scientific and industrial techniques (They'd also benefit from the fact that their religious-cultural advisors woulden't be forbidden by the Japanese ban on Christians). The Yankees could also be another possibility... though I'm hesitant, given the time period.
 
Back on the topic of Nippon, I do think it could be possible.

Everyone who keeps harping about resources keeps failing to consider that resources mean little in a more modernizing world. It's why the smaller nations of Europe still contribute things and so on.

Nippon had skilled craftsman and workers and given the cultural hegemony, I figure a good enough Emperor could've forced reforms through that could've made the naiton into a formidable force.

During a visit to the modest nation, one of my friends told me about a deceased prince named Meiji who apparently had ambitions to modernize the nation before his untimely demise via some sort of accident. Perhaps had he taken the throne, he could've utilized those ambitions and modernized Nippon.
 
Back on the topic of Nippon, I do think it could be possible.

Everyone who keeps harping about resources keeps failing to consider that resources mean little in a more modernizing world. It's why the smaller nations of Europe still contribute things and so on.

Nippon had skilled craftsman and workers and given the cultural hegemony, I figure a good enough Emperor could've forced reforms through that could've made the naiton into a formidable force.

During a visit to the modest nation, one of my friends told me about a deceased prince named Meiji who apparently had ambitions to modernize the nation before his untimely demise via some sort of accident. Perhaps had he taken the throne, he could've utilized those ambitions and modernized Nippon.

Oh, I've seen what their traditional artisans can do with steel folding and silk weaving; I'm not contesting the quality of the goods. But Nippon could never get enough of them to be economically competitive in an age of growing manufacture/mass production; remember, Tokugawa's system basically prevented anybody from moving out of the station of their birth, which kept the society largely in the paddies, and no matter how rich the Samurai were the fact the currency was denominated and struck based on bushels of rice made commerce a pain in the neck. There never could be a major commercial reformation in a closed economy who's monetary supply was tied to the output of that year's harvest, to say nothing of the legal and social barriers.

How would you suggest avoiding this?

As for the focus on resources, remember we're talking about the 19th and early 20th century here. This isent the age of an international service economy or expansive apolitical trade: having dependable, securable, cheap, and nearby access to raw materials is vital to building up an industrial economy at the time, especially when war could break out at any moment or a commercial rival mess with your supply lines (There's a reason so many more nations than compared to today kept navies with global power projection). How is Japan going to make the money and supply the army and navy required to match their European contemporaries without these? Exporting fish?
 
How would you suggest avoiding this?

As for the focus on resources, remember we're talking about the 19th and early 20th century here. This isent the age of an international service economy or expansive apolitical trade: having dependable, securable, cheap, and nearby access to raw materials is vital to building up an industrial economy at the time, especially when war could break out at any moment or a commercial rival mess with your supply lines (There's a reason so many more nations than compared to today kept navies with global power projection). How is Japan going to make the money and supply the army and navy required to match their European contemporaries without these? Exporting fish?

My guess would be that perhaps Meiji lives and begans modernizing the nation. Alot of the cultural constructs could be directed toward working things.

My guess would probably have Meiji end the shogunate for good before probably turning attention toward Russia. Russia was in a bad period in the late 19th century so if Japan got its act together enough to beat Russia (which given the incomepetence of some of them, itd be possible), it would give Japan plenty of prestige to work off of. Given the status of the emperor in Japan, having a potential reformist on board would allow him to make sweeping reforms and changes.

Admittingly, I do not know since this is not my area, but it's not as unlikely as many people make it out to be.
 
OOC: Meiji is his posthumous name as Emperor and name of the era he ruled. As a prince, his name was Mutsuhito.

Japan has a few things going for it in this period. High level of literacy, something like 40% of men. Another was that their economy, although primarily artisanal, was also fairly advanced in machinery. They produced their own gearworks and water mills. Their status was closer to the Ottoman Empire than the Ashanti. The main problem I see is Japan's lack of natural resources. It's fairly densely populated and doesn't entirely lack coal or iron, but it doesn't have large amounts like Britain or Turkey. It might be able to get these resources from Korea during the Qing Time of Troubles, but in order to invade and defeat Korea it needs to industrialize. A circular conundrum. This also doesn't even take into account the extremely feudal nature of the government, although the central government of the Shogun had a good amount of power during the Edo period.
 
My guess would be that perhaps Meiji lives and begans modernizing the nation. Alot of the cultural constructs could be directed toward working things.

My guess would probably have Meiji end the shogunate for good before probably turning attention toward Russia. Russia was in a bad period in the late 19th century so if Japan got its act together enough to beat Russia (which given the incomepetence of some of them, itd be possible), it would give Japan plenty of prestige to work off of. Given the status of the emperor in Japan, having a potential reformist on board would allow him to make sweeping reforms and changes.

Admittingly, I do not know since this is not my area, but it's not as unlikely as many people make it out to be.

And how would the young Emperor manage to end the Shogunate? The Tokgugawa and their vassals were in control of the army, navy, civil bureaucracy, and even had their fingers in most of the big religious foundations. The Son of Heaven was a powerful cultural figure, true, but in a pre-mass media society where he could hardly bring his appeal directly to the populace (And even then, what are the odds they'd revolt? They weren't armed and haden't had a proper uprising in centuries) how could he challange the entrenched powers-that-be? I suppose if we could create a POD far enough back to the point he has a relevent political faction though, or create some kind of schism in the Diaymo.
 
What would happen to the samurai? Somewhat to the Janisarries of the Ottoman Empire, they would be a problem, since they would be against to any change that makes them obsolete to Nippon.
 
Samurai weren't a section of the military like the Janisarries, they were the entire noble class. If any modernization were to occur, it would have to have the samurai behind it. Perhaps the samurai see their strength eroding to a more centralizing and oppressive Shogun and back the Emperor to try to seize power for themselves. If things pan out to where we have a civil war between the Imperial south and a Shogunate north, or some other fairly even sided war, the side that adopts western governmental and military techniques would win. I would say the Imperial side would be more friendly to that if Prince Mutsuhito leads them, but they might also be more reactionary and feudalist due to the war being protection of samurai privileges. And even if they modernize government and military, it would still be very hard to transition to an industrial economy thanks to the lack of local resources. The modern republic only achieved such growth rates thanks to being in the Chinese free trade zone and even then lags significantly behind Korea in GDP per capita.
 
Samurai weren't a section of the military like the Janisarries, they were the entire noble class. If any modernization were to occur, it would have to have the samurai behind it. Perhaps the samurai see their strength eroding to a more centralizing and oppressive Shogun and back the Emperor to try to seize power for themselves. If things pan out to where we have a civil war between the Imperial south and a Shogunate north, or some other fairly even sided war, the side that adopts western governmental and military techniques would win. I would say the Imperial side would be more friendly to that if Prince Mutsuhito leads them, but they might also be more reactionary and feudalist due to the war being protection of samurai privileges. And even if they modernize government and military, it would still be very hard to transition to an industrial economy thanks to the lack of local resources. The modern republic only achieved such growth rates thanks to being in the Chinese free trade zone and even then lags significantly behind Korea in GDP per capita.

I could see a civil war breaking out... though I hesitate to see why the samurai would fight for a reformation that empowers the Ko and Sho at their expense. I suppose in this scenario, though, the Shogun in the event of a victory would need to rebuild the government bureaucracy after purging the rebels, thus necessitating tapping into the lowest rungs of the Shinokosho. The problem with this scenario though is the trouble Japan would have adopting to such a radical shift in their society without falling under the sway of European advisors and swamped economically by their goods and loans, or why the European powers woulden't take advantage of the civil instability like they ended up doing in India and China in order to establish their regional hegemonies. Its the circular problem like you pointed out with raw materials; in order to get that tools and techniques required to get the centeral political power needed to impliment the required reform, you'd already have to have fallen under the domination/sold yourself off to one of the Imperial powers.
 
What would happen to the samurai? Somewhat to the Janisarries of the Ottoman Empire, they would be a problem, since they would be against to any change that makes them obsolete to Nippon.

Well, if we go by the literal Tanzimat example, the Shogun would need to find a motivation, the resources, and excuse to make his own "Nizam I-Cid" like Sultan-Caliph Salim did so he could present the samurai with a military fair accompli. The problem with that though (Which makes Nippon's case as an island so unique) is where was that to come from in a nation that haven't seen a land wae since Hidoyoshi? Kyoto dosen't have Napoleon on their doorstep as a kickstarter, nor the proving grounds of Tartary and the Donbas on which to gain experience and refinement.
 
IMHO one key factor in why the Qing Self-Strengthening succeeded was due to the infusion of forward thinking Japanese reformists from the 1850 on who had no outlet or opportunity in their home country to bring about change. I mean, if you're a bright young Japanese fellow but born in the wrong caste (IE not samurai) it's kinda hard to do innovative stuff when you can be cut down in the street for not groveling in a sufficiently proper manner to every passing samurai. I mean, those young Japanese pioneers didnt exactly have it easy in most of China, due to not being Han, but it was quite amazing how they were able to find common cause with the grotesquely outnumbered ruling Manchu caste and miraculously carved out a niche for themselves with their high technical skills and drive, becoming an informal bureaucratic layer between the Manchu and Han in most of Northern China.

We then saw a serious brain drain that continued into much of the early 20th century, where every young commoner Japanese man and woman worth a damn got out of there and hooked up with the burgeoning Japanese diaspora in China.

Add in all wealthy Japanese clansman from Kyushu on the losing side of constant power struggles, who fled with their fortunes and samurai retinues, those funds helped bootstrap Manchuria, eventually turning it into the gargantuan industrially engine of the world today. A high price to pay as it impoverished them, but it helped carve their place in Chinese society from that point on.

Hell, due to these Japanese outcast samurai (they were a far East version of the Varangian guard personally loyal to Prince Gong who graciously accepted them), their contribution in a palace coup that deposed the Dowager Empress Cixi, was considered by many historians as the true turning point of China finally embracing modernization and it's eventual success. I guess the only reason we dont use the phrase "Pulling a Gong" is cuz it took a long while to stick and thus not as catchy sounding!

Even more insane, was how the Japanese Samurai and their sons (who Prince Gong wisely ordered out of the capital and to the North post coup to defuse tensions during his rule), formed the initial military cadres that led to a creation of the Kwantung Army responsible for, defending the Northern Frontier, pushing Russian incursions back, reclaiming the entirely of Amur River Basin, and cutting Russia off from the Pacific. Although, these frisky bastards were a bit too bloodlusted, their uhh, "invasion" of Korea wasn't very cool, and the junior officers who somehow kicked that mess off werent all mass arrested and executed, due to the fait accompli of Korea surrendering their sovereignty to stop the madness.

I really wonder how things woulda turned out if the Japanese diaspora never happened. I wonder if Kwantung Army type hotheads woulda been insane enough to try to invade China. I mean i can see Japan yoinking Korea, when China's back is turned, at the absolute best. But to actually cross the Yalu and actually try to penetrate deep into the ancestral Manchu heartland, LOLOL, it's like a mouse fighting an elephant!
 
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