DBWI-Bismarck Not Sunk by Fleet Air Arm

Well, the American's refusal to fold after the Philippines fiasco was the first sign for some in the Japanese military that Japan had gotten in over their heads. The ones at the top, alas, continued to delude themselves into thinking they could win.
 
OOC: Yeah well, we already established that the USN sent its standards to the Philippines to please MacArthur.

Is Pearl Harbor still being attacked in this situation, where the bulk of the US Pacific Fleet is in the Philippines? If so, why? Those carriers are needed in the Philippines, or attacking the USN's supply convoys.
 
Is Pearl Harbor still being attacked in this situation, where the bulk of the US Pacific Fleet is in the Philippines? If so, why? Those carriers are needed in the Philippines, or attacking the USN's supply convoys.

OOC: The Japanese were unaware that the battlefleet had been moved, I guess.
 
This is at least ASB or simply BS, but bear with me...

Bismarck makes it to Brest and despite the FAA and RAF throwing as much as they can at them all 4 ships are repaired.

They sail back to Germany in February 1942 via the ENGLISH CHANNEL and pass through the Straits of Dover in BROAD DAYLIGHT!

IC: Mines. Other than that, yes. How many times has an impenetrable fortress fallen because some idiot left the back door unlocked?:p

I'm sorry making it through the English Channel in Broad daylight????

I'm stunned Are you out of your mind??? This could only happen if the RAF where somehow in put in charge of defending the channel and buggered it up

OOC: :p

IC: Madder things have happened. The whole history of the American Revolution would be considered ASB in 1774. Especially Washington's escape from New York.

True but on the plus side they shot the snot out of a couple of reinforcement convoys destined for Luzon essentially costing the Japanese an entire infantry division plus a lot of supplies and they covered the evacuation of a lot of US and Filipino troops to the DEI. We lost the ships but the Japanese timetable got set back big time.

IC: Too bad the US/Filippino troops arrived unarmed and were lost with the DEI regardless.:(

You might be right and I am out of my mind. Or it might come under the so mad it might work category.

I have suggested several times a scenario where Franco "does a Mussolini" in June 1940. That is he thinks the war is over bar negotiating the peace treaty and declares war on France and Britain.

That gives the Italian fleet the opportunity to force the Strait of Gibraltar and sail for Brest to provide the naval cover that gives Operation Sealion a cat in hell's chance in succeeding.

OOC: This scenario required the Italian naval leadership to show a level of courage, determination, organization, and proven resources they never had. If they couldn't consider a strike against Cyprus, never sent a supply convoy to Tobruk, and could never even make a serious attempt at freakin' MALTA for crying out loud (their own front yard), how could they ever get all the way across the Western Mediterranean, around Gibraltar, around Iberia, and up to the English Channel? This, with what the Italians themselves described as "The Cardboard Fleet".

I'm wondering how he US battle ship fleet made it to the Phillipines? :confused: ?

OOC: They couldn't, unless the Carolines, Marshalls, Peleliu, and Marianas are US territories, complete with fully equipped fleet and air bases. Oh, and a Fleet Train.

The Helldiver and the Corsair. Both planes suffered from a lot of teething problems and neither one was easy for nuggets to fly but a number of people in US naval aviation saw the potential in both planes and the US Navy made fixing their issues a high priority.

Plus, much like the B-26, once the quirks got fixed their reputations as ensign killers was grossly exaggerated and they in fact had fairly low loss rates.

The improved models may not have been ensign/lieutenant killers, but the Helldiver and to a lesser degree the Corsair would always be problematical for green pilots. One reason why the F-4U was so unpopular with the USN initially, while for the USMC (land-based) it was a godsend.

Makes you wonder what would've happened to Mac if he'd survived the final stand on Correigidor. I'm assuming he'd be court martialed - FDR was none too happy about his "abandoning the Philippines" comments.

IC: Its hard to imagine today the level of political support Dougout Dougie enjoyed in the press and hardcore Roosevelt Hating Republicans.

OOC: Hold on a second. Sea Henleys? Sea Dantes? Since when did the OP mention anything about new aircraft being developed? If you're gonna add other aircraft to the attack on Bismarck, you could at least stick to OTL aircraft.

OOC: The FAA was the beggar at the table pre-Channel Dash. Astrodragon's "Whale Has Wings" ATL shows what happens with a heavy investment in British naval power exceeding even Japan's.

But conversely the OP didn't say no new aircraft had been developed. My understanding with 'DBWI' you can let you imagination run wild (while still being plausible) within the confines of the post.
Though, I have difficulty get my head around it at times!!

Flitting between the mind-thoughts of what should be "IC" & "OOC" is extremely confusing in a DBWI.


IC:I'm sorry, but to pull that off requires the British to more incompetent than humanly possible. If Bismarck does participate in the Channel Dash, she'll most likely end up sinking with Prinz Eugen and Gneisenau in the Battle of the Dover Strait.

Yeah, the RN and FAA will be heavily concentrated to meet a breakout attempt from Brest. However, logic would have dictated that the Germans flee to the open sea to get into the Atlantic shipping lanes, to do the most damage. So the deployments would be positioned to stop that. "No sane person" would try for the Channel, so if the enemy believes that, maybe with bags and bags of luck, it could be done. But how?

OOC: When participating in DBWIs, making your ATL speculation identical to OTL is somewhat frowned upon.

True, but there's limited OTL, USM, and ASB levels.

OOC: So did the IJN sustain any losses in return? Or is this the same super-IJN proposed by pattersonautobody in this thread?

Hey, ease up on pattersonautobody. All it takes is Japanophilia combined with being an Anglophobe and/or Ameriphobe. More than a few of those around. Did he claim his TL was "balanced"?

Also its quite reasonable to assume that if Bismarck had made it to France that it would have taken part in the Channel Dash.

IC: Agreed, if Bomber Command and everything the FAA had left in its inventory hadn't destroyed them in port. The Twins and PE were not the Tirpitz in a remote Norwegian fjord.

What strength would the Home fleet have in such an engagement because I'm struggling to work out how they would be out gunned?

Bismarck + Tirpitz, S + G and Prinz Eugen + 3 Destroyers

vs (at OTL Strength)

KGV + DOY + Renown + Victorious + 2 Cruisers (Kenya and Berwick) and 14 Destroyers

Although you are probably right other units would be added and I suspect that more US ships would be active in the region.

The North Carolina and the Washington, the New Mexico-class, the New Yorks, maybe even the Arkansas!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lost Freeway
OOC: We've already established that the battleships weren't in Pearl Harbor at the time of the attack.




My question had to do with the US battle fleet reaching the Phillipines, not with survivng 7 Dec. If you study up on the US Navy & Pacific fleet you will find that:

A. The US Navy had no ability to send the battle fleet that far in just a few weeks or even several months.

B. It had zero plans for such a early campaign.

In terms of A the fleet train of specialized logistics ships and base operations units that made the Central Pacifc offensive possible did not exist in 1941 or 1942. Construction had just been started and only a few prewar prototypes and experimental items existed. OTL the admirals had problems operating naval forces in relief of Wake, the subsequent raids on the Marianas, or Rabaul, or Japan, and aiding the Dutch & Commonwealth in the South Pacific. The logistics support simply did not exist for getting the battle fleet to the Phillipines in December 1942, or in the next six months.

For B the old 'Orange' war plans, the subsequent 'Rainbow' plans, and Kimmels plan for the Pacific fleet operations included nothing for early or late relief of the Phillipines.

Stop making sense!:mad:

Why make the high risk Channel transit with this powerful fleet? There had been previous three sucessful sorties into the North Atlantic that sank a lot of cargo ships without damage to the Germans. If you want to return this fleet to the North Sea then why not take the North Atlantic route? There were more than a few convoys in the North Atlantic, which included ships destined for the PQ convoys. Lower risk & targets makes this look more attractive.

Even more attractive is to sortie out to raid convoys & then return to French ports. Lower risk at sea with much the same results in cargo ships sunk.

IC: Agreed, save for that Brest was a very dangerous port to reside in, with regular bombing runs causing an ever growing level of damage to the ships, they could never quite become sufficiently operational for an Atlantic Raid.


OOC: Here's an idea-make your own IC posts about what you think would happen in this DBWI. Come up with something you think would be more plausible than the previous posts.

Good Idea

IC: With the naval air power advocates vindicated by the Bismarck's sinking, the FAA finally got equal priority with the RAF for new aircraft and designs. Up until then, they'd practically been fighting the war with the designs and hardware they started with on 9/1/39! If not for Ark Royal sinking the "Unsinkable Bismarck", this supposed "Channel Dash" suggested wouldn't have been so insane after all. Hitler knew his Twins and the Prinz Eugen were being very slowly bombed into scrap by Bomber Command, and the re-invigorated FAA helped to finally polish them off.

After all, with the whole of Bomber Command being thrown at Brest, those poor three ships were never in a status to be made sea-worthy. Also, it took any pressure off of the bombing raids being made against Germany until those ships were destroyed.

Though I too consider the possibility of a successful running of the Channel to be almost USM. With the Channel defenses pumped up, the Dover guns in place, and the naval minefields off the Belgian/Dutch/NE German coastline, I just don't see it. The Germans would have had to make the most brilliantly planned naval operational plan they ever accomplished, and frankly, they just couldn't. Not without the Luftwaffe supporting them, which just ain't happening.

The RN's decision to avoid serious loss in the Aegean due to the lack of air cover meant abandoning the Greeks to their fate, yes. And that caused a LOT of trouble with the Greeks and even to a much lesser degree the Americans, but it did mean the annihilation of the Fallschirmjager over Crete, (1) and Hitler's total denunciation of all forms of future airborne operations. Who knows what using paras would do on the Russian Front. Air drops on Sevastopol?:confused:

1) Not to mention saving Crete (2) in what became Hitler's first strategic defeat in WWII, helping to freeze Turkey in its neutrality and helping to convince them (with lots of American $$$) to sell all their chrome to the Allies, cutting Hitler off from his only source.

2) Making for a nice tactical air base for attacking Axis targets in the Balkans, securing the shipping lanes in the Eastern Mediterranean from air attack, and providing emergency landing and refueling airfields for strikes against Ploesti. Many Allied airmen were saved with Crete available as a "lifeboat".

Then there's the Pacific. No air cover meant Force Z couldn't be saved per se (no one could have foreseen the long-range and air superiority capabilities of IJN fighters), at least Indomitable's grounding meant she wasn't lost.

Frankly, I think far too much credit is given to General Short. He was an old infantry general, almost prematurely aged for his 61 years. If not for the support given directly to his air commanders by Washington for a higher state of readiness, communications co-ordination, and above all paying attention to radar reports, the 7th US Air Force would have been destroyed without real damage to the enemy, what with Short's interference. As it was, a lot of "lame duck" aircraft were lost on the tarmac anyway. Not to mention so many fighters being shot down and the pilots killed because they had no idea of how to deal with the nimble Zeroes.

But nothing could forgive what happened in the Philippines, where Dugout Dougie proved himself for what he was. At least a handful of forces were evacuated from Mindanao, only to be lost in Java.:mad: A MOH for the Japanese destroyer skipper that picked off Dougie's PT boat. The other good result was Kimmel's replacement when he demanded the right to send the Standards to the Philippines (via Australia), when between the Norwegian campaign, Taranto, the Bismarck, Force Z, the loss of the Brest Squadron, PH, ABDA, and the driving of the British Indian Ocean Fleet off to Kenya proved once and for all the madness of subjecting sea power against air power alone.

OOC: Opinions?
 
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IC: Mines. Other than that, yes. How many times has an impenetrable fortress fallen because some idiot left the back door unlocked?:p



IC: Madder things have happened. The whole history of the American Revolution would be considered ASB in 1774. Especially Washington's escape from New York.



IC: Too bad the US/Filippino troops arrived unarmed and were lost with the DEI regardless.:(



OOC: This scenario required the Italian naval leadership to show a level of courage, determination, organization, and proven resources they never had. If they couldn't consider a strike against Cyprus, never sent a supply convoy to Tobruk, and could never even make a serious attempt at freakin' MALTA for crying out loud (their own front yard), how could they ever get all the way across the Western Mediterranean, around Gibraltar, around Iberia, and up to the English Channel? This, with what the Italians themselves described as "The Cardboard Fleet".



OOC: They couldn't, unless the Carolines, Marshalls, Peleliu, and Marianas are US territories, complete with fully equipped fleet and air bases. Oh, and a Fleet Train.



The improved models may not have been ensign/lieutenant killers, but the Helldiver and to a lesser degree the Corsair would always be problematical for green pilots. One reason why the F-4U was so unpopular with the USN initially, while for the USMC (land-based) it was a godsend.



IC: Its hard to imagine today the level of political support Dougout Dougie enjoyed in the press and hardcore Roosevelt Hating Republicans.



OOC: The FAA was the beggar at the table pre-Channel Dash. Astrodragon's "Whale Has Wings" ATL shows what happens with a heavy investment in British naval power exceeding even Japan's.



Flitting between the mind-thoughts of what should be "IC" & "OOC" is extremely confusing in a DBWI.




Yeah, the RN and FAA will be heavily concentrated to meet a breakout attempt from Brest. However, logic would have dictated that the Germans flee to the open sea to get into the Atlantic shipping lanes, to do the most damage. So the deployments would be positioned to stop that. "No sane person" would try for the Channel, so if the enemy believes that, maybe with bags and bags of luck, it could be done. But how?



True, but there's limited OTL, USM, and ASB levels.



Hey, ease up on pattersonautobody. All it takes is Japanophilia combined with being an Anglophobe and/or Ameriphobe. More than a few of those around. Did he claim his TL was "balanced"?



IC: Agreed, if Bomber Command and everything the FAA had left in its inventory hadn't destroyed them in port. The Twins and PE were not the Tirpitz in a remote Norwegian fjord.



The North Carolina and the Washington, the New Mexico-class, the New Yorks, maybe even the Arkansas!



Stop making sense!:mad:



IC: Agreed, save for that Brest was a very dangerous port to reside in, with regular bombing runs causing an ever growing level of damage to the ships, they could never quite become sufficiently operational for an Atlantic Raid.




Good Idea

IC: With the naval air power advocates vindicated by the Bismarck's sinking, the FAA finally got equal priority with the RAF for new aircraft and designs. Up until then, they'd practically been fighting the war with the designs and hardware they started with on 9/1/39! If not for Ark Royal sinking the "Unsinkable Bismarck", this supposed "Channel Dash" suggested wouldn't have been so insane after all. Hitler knew his Twins and the Prinz Eugen were being very slowly bombed into scrap by Bomber Command, and the re-invigorated FAA helped to finally polish them off.

After all, with the whole of Bomber Command being thrown at Brest, those poor three ships were never in a status to be made sea-worthy. Also, it took any pressure off of the bombing raids being made against Germany until those ships were destroyed.

Though I too consider the possibility of a successful running of the Channel to be almost USM. With the Channel defenses pumped up, the Dover guns in place, and the naval minefields off the Belgian/Dutch/NE German coastline, I just don't see it. The Germans would have had to make the most brilliantly planned naval operational plan they ever accomplished, and frankly, they just couldn't. Not without the Luftwaffe supporting them, which just ain't happening.

The RN's decision to avoid serious loss in the Aegean due to the lack of air cover meant abandoning the Greeks to their fate, yes. And that caused a LOT of trouble with the Greeks and even to a much lesser degree the Americans, but it did mean the annihilation of the Fallschirmjager over Crete, (1) and Hitler's total denunciation of all forms of future airborne operations. Who knows what using paras would do on the Russian Front. Air drops on Sevastopol?:confused:

1) Not to mention saving Crete (2) in what became Hitler's first strategic defeat in WWII, helping to freeze Turkey in its neutrality and helping to convince them (with lots of American $$$) to sell all their chrome to the Allies, cutting Hitler off from his only source.

2) Making for a nice tactical air base for attacking Axis targets in the Balkans, securing the shipping lanes in the Eastern Mediterranean from air attack, and providing emergency landing and refueling airfields for strikes against Ploesti. Many Allied airmen were saved with Crete available as a "lifeboat".

Then there's the Pacific. No air cover meant Force Z couldn't be saved per se (no one could have foreseen the long-range and air superiority capabilities of IJN fighters), at least Indomitable's grounding meant she wasn't lost.

Frankly, I think far too much credit is given to General Short. He was an old infantry general, almost prematurely aged for his 61 years. If not for the support given directly to his air commanders by Washington for a higher state of readiness, communications co-ordination, and above all paying attention to radar reports, the 7th US Air Force would have been destroyed without real damage to the enemy, what with Short's interference. As it was, a lot of "lame duck" aircraft were lost on the tarmac anyway. Not to mention so many fighters being shot down and the pilots killed because they had no idea of how to deal with the nimble Zeroes.

But nothing could forgive what happened in the Philippines, where Dugout Dougie proved himself for what he was. At least a handful of forces were evacuated from Mindanao, only to be lost in Java.:mad: A MOH for the Japanese destroyer skipper that picked off Dougie's PT boat. The other good result was Kimmel's replacement when he demanded the right to send the Standards to the Philippines (via Australia), when between the Norwegian campaign, Taranto, the Bismarck, Force Z, the loss of the Brest Squadron, PH, ABDA, and the driving of the British Indian Ocean Fleet off to Kenya proved once and for all the madness of subjecting sea power against air power alone.

OOC: Opinions?

OOC: Wait a second, you're saying that the RN's Far East campaign still goes exactly as OTL?
 
The KM might not spend so much effort on GZ and Seydlitz though, without so compelling an object lesson.

Hitler's logic was basically "Aircraft carriers can sink battleships, therefore, I need an aircraft carrier!" Of course, they only BB sunk by German carrier-based planes was the elderly HMS Revenge.
 
Some people take WW2 battleships way too seriously.

OOC: Some people take WW2 battleships way too seriously.
 
Some people take WW2 battleships way too seriously.

OOC: Some people take WW2 battleships way too seriously.

Come on now, we all know the reason the Royal Navy sent aircraft carriers to deal with Bismarck is because she would've sunk any battleship sent after her. At least that's what the Wehraboos would have you believe.
 
They died but at least it wasn't in vain, just imagine if the majority of the troops had got ashore Malay was not very strongly held at the time and having it fall quickly would have been a huge blow.

Costly actions yes but the Japanese lost a lot of troops, transport ships, and supplies and that set their time table back and they never recovered.

Oh absolutely. A quicker Malayan Campaign would mean we wouldn't have had time to beef up Singapore and Burma, and then we'd have been down three colonies instead of one-and-a-half.

See what happened in October 1943 in the Pas de Calais - and thats despite teh British bases. Half teh invvasion fleet sunk by coordinated U-boat and Luftwaffe Action. I wonder how Long the Europena war would have lasted if the February Putsch had not succeeded. The Bohemina corporal should not have demanded another atempt at sea Lion ;)

People overestimate how long Germany would've kept fighting if the putsch and civil war hadn't happened. The Red Army wouldn't have stopped coming - even if the Western allies stayed bogged down in northern France, the east would be walking into Berlin by the end of 1944. (And say buhbye to any chance of a West Poland) Too many Russians and too little chrome and oil after Crete.

It's still less strained than all those what-if-the-Rape-of-Paris-never-happened stories though.

1) Not to mention saving Crete (2) in what became Hitler's first strategic defeat in WWII, helping to freeze Turkey in its neutrality and helping to convince them (with lots of American $$$) to sell all their chrome to the Allies, cutting Hitler off from his only source.

2) Making for a nice tactical air base for attacking Axis targets in the Balkans, securing the shipping lanes in the Eastern Mediterranean from air attack, and providing emergency landing and refueling airfields for strikes against Ploesti. Many Allied airmen were saved with Crete available as a "lifeboat".

Not to mention hitting the oil fields in Romania. I don't buy all those "Moscow falls if Crete does" AUs - Stalin, sure, he'd have been deposed and replaced (and Stalingrad would've been Russia's Malaya rather than their Singapore) but it certainly helped Russia out.
 
People overestimate how long Germany would've kept fighting if the putsch and civil war hadn't happened. The Red Army wouldn't have stopped coming - even if the Western allies stayed bogged down in northern France, the east would be walking into Berlin by the end of 1944. (And say buhbye to any chance of a West Poland) Too many Russians and too little chrome and oil after Crete.

It's still less strained than all those what-if-the-Rape-of-Paris-never-happened stories though.
OOC: A putsch would not bring an end to the war. Whoever replaces Hitler would keep fighting when they realize the Allies won't let them keep their conquests.
 
OOC: A putsch would not bring an end to the war. Whoever replaces Hitler would keep fighting when they realize the Allies won't let them keep their conquests.

OOC: I know but that was the claim in the earlier post - I chucked in "civil war" so we could say the putsch left Germany messed up and distracted, rather than them cutting a deal.
 
Then there's the Pacific. No air cover meant Force Z couldn't be saved per se (no one could have foreseen the long-range and air superiority capabilities of IJN fighters), at least Indomitable's grounding meant she wasn't lost.

Frankly, I think far too much credit is given to General Short. He was an old infantry general, almost prematurely aged for his 61 years. If not for the support given directly to his air commanders by Washington for a higher state of readiness, communications co-ordination, and above all paying attention to radar reports, the 7th US Air Force would have been destroyed without real damage to the enemy, what with Short's interference. As it was, a lot of "lame duck" aircraft were lost on the tarmac anyway. Not to mention so many fighters being shot down and the pilots killed because they had no idea of how to deal with the nimble Zeroes.

But nothing could forgive what happened in the Philippines, where Dugout Dougie proved himself for what he was. At least a handful of forces were evacuated from Mindanao, only to be lost in Java.:mad: A MOH for the Japanese destroyer skipper that picked off Dougie's PT boat. The other good result was Kimmel's replacement when he demanded the right to send the Standards to the Philippines (via Australia), when between the Norwegian campaign, Taranto, the Bismarck, Force Z, the loss of the Brest Squadron, PH, ABDA, and the driving of the British Indian Ocean Fleet off to Kenya proved once and for all the madness of subjecting sea power against air power alone.

OOC: Opinions?


OOC: Wait a second, you're saying that the RN's Far East campaign still goes exactly as OTL?

OOC: Oh yes, I remember now-only the Americans are allowed to have any successes against the IJN.:rolleyes:
 
If the planes had somehow failed to sink the Bismark, which ships do you think may have had a chance to stop it before it could return to France?
 
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