DBWI: Barack Obama re-elected in 2012

Barack Obama was destined to be a game changing President. He came in 2008 after 8 years of irresponsible leadership under Bush. Many were riding high on his message of change. However, it seemed like outside forces had other plans.

With the economy still not recovering following the 2008 housing market crisis, the botched operation to kill Osama bin Laden and the subsequent attempt to cover it up, as well as the infamous ATF gun walking scandal (Operation Fast and Furious) that led to the deaths of seven Border Patrol Agents (which also led to the resignation of Eric Holder), it was no surprise that Obama was defeated by Mitt Romney in 2012.

But this begs the question, had these events gone a different way, would Obama have had a better shot at being re-elected?

OOC: My second DBWI timeline. There are a few POD’s. First, the operation to kill Osama bin Laden fails and the Obama administration trying to pass it off as a training exercise gone horribly awry, and the ATF gunwalking scandal in 2012 has more severe consequences than in OTL.
 
Obama recieves the credit for getting Bin Laden, not Romney. If he runs hard on this issue, it would be enough to overcome Romney who just barely won by a fraction of a percent. That said, I don't think his second term would be that much more successful than Romney's one and only term. Like Romney, Obama would be dealing with a split Congress that won't agree on anything and he'd be forced to implement policy via executive order. One major difference would be that he blocks the XL Pipeline which Romney approved.

As for the 2016 election, that was a Democratic year thanks to voter dissatisfaction with Romney and the GOP. That wouldn't be true in this TL, however I can't think of any Republican that would be strong enough to win in 2016. I imagine that Jeb Bush would run, but due to his brother's legacy he probably won't make it. Rubio is young and appealing to minorities, but he's had PR problems from the get-go and too associated with the Tea Party. John Kasich of Ohio would have national appeal, and he's conservative enough to win over the base. He'd be the strongest candidate, and could possibly win if the gaffe-prone Biden is Obama's heir apparent.

OOC: Making this "predictions" knowing that happened in OTL is a real trip.
 
OOC: It came close to happening. Although, would Romney really only have one term? If he got Bin Laden and the economy stays stable or improves, wouldn’t he have a fairly good shot of being re-elected?
 
Maybe Donald Trump might win the Republican nomination in 2016 instead of running as a independent and causing a spoiler effect
 
OOC: It came close to happening. Although, would Romney really only have one term? If he got Bin Laden and the economy stays stable or improves, wouldn’t he have a fairly good shot of being re-elected?

OOC: People in both parties wanted change really badly in 2016 even though the economy improved. Even HRC implied that Obama hadn't done enough for the economy while campaigning in the primaries. (She argued that during the recovery too many gains had done to "the top" and not to working class people). Whether or not she was correct is beside the point, she had to express such sentiments in order to be nominated because that is what voters were generally feeling.
 
Maybe Donald Trump might win the Republican nomination in 2016 instead of running as a independent and causing a spoiler effect

He might have. Then again, Bernie Sanders would have still had a field day with him like he did with Romney. Even though Bernie narrowly edged out Romney in the electoral vote, he still barely lost the popular vote. A lot of people blame Trump for costing Romney in key swing states like Ohio and North Carolina. Hell, they say Romney had a shot at winning Pennsylvania and Michigan until Trump was able to pull votes away from him.
 
OOC: People in both parties wanted change really badly in 2016 even though the economy improved. Even HRC implied that Obama hadn't done enough for the economy while campaigning in the primaries. (She argued that during the recovery too many gains had done to "the top" and not to working class people). Whether or not she was correct is beside the point, she had to express such sentiments in order to be nominated because that is what voters were generally feeling.

OOC: Fair enough. It really does kind of explain why so many voters in blue wall states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin votes for Trump after voting for Obama twice.
 
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