DBWI: Avoid The Breakup of China into Three 'Kingdoms'

Dolan

Banned
Just watching the news about the current border skirmishes between the Kuomintang Republic of China and the Communist People's Republic of China. Of course, neither wanted to actually commit to all-out fighting since the Qing Manchukuo might end up swooping in and finished them both if they end up bloodied too much.

Yes, all the three major Chinese states still claim to be the rightful ruler of all China, even as they couldn't actually enforce their claim without inciting yet another World War due to each of them having different superpower backers (USA sided with ROC, USSR obviously backing the PRC, and Japan has been propping up Manchukuo for around a Century).

Of course, the Chinese themselves did notice the similarity with what happened after the fall of the Han Dynasty, calling current era as The Second Three Kingdoms period (despite two of the states being Republics).

What if the Second Three Kingdoms being averted? Who is the most likely to rule an united China? The Reformed Qing, The Kuomintang, or The Communists?
 
Kuomintang, no questions asked. Big beefy industrial base and German backing to boot. The Qing have only really kept themselves together by overthrowing any and all pretensions to being anything other than "Manchuria", whatever the official line is, and the Communists are basically a paramilitary guerilla force with a state. That Nanking hasn't been running the show for a long time now is mainly down to the unique diplomatic situation China found itself in during the Phoney War, when there was fear that the Soviets, Anglo-Japanese and Germans could end up at war over developments there, and so kept their client states in line.
 
A good POD IMHO for this is the Japanese going ahead with their idea of assassinating Zhang Zuolin as he was an ardent Qing loyalist who after the success of the Northern Expedition turned Manchuria into a "Qing Empire" with Puyi providing political legitimacy for the Fengtian Clique's independence from the KMT.
 
A good POD IMHO for this is the Japanese going ahead with their idea of assassinating Zhang Zuolin as he was an ardent Qing loyalist who after the success of the Northern Expedition turned Manchuria into a "Qing Empire" with Puyi providing political legitimacy for the Fengtian Clique's independence from the KMT.
Consequences would be the reestablishment of China as a constitutional monarchy and maybe managed to court Beiyang to take control of the northern portions with the help of support from other warlords.
 
Unsure how to avoid the breakup. Though mind you, in such a situation, Japan would be a far less powerful nation. The control of Manchukuan oil by major Imperial corporations was what fuelled the Japanese economic boom that began in the 1950s. That and other resources. Without that, I doubt they'd have had the spine or clout to prop up the anti-French rebels in Indochina, or to draw the post-independence states into the Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Though mind you, one wonders how different Kawashima Yoshiko's life would be. In modern-day Manchukuo she's regarded as similar to a 'founding father' of the nation, and her exploits leading her irregular forces - many of whom were women - against Communist partisans made her an icon for women's rights in Asia and elsewhere (plus there was how as an older woman in the 70s she got involved in LGBT-rights activism in Japan and Manchukuo). But a lot of her fame/infamy was only possible thanks to the existence of Manchukuo...
 
Though mind you, one wonders how different Kawashima Yoshiko's life would be. In modern-day Manchukuo she's regarded as similar to a 'founding father' of the nation, and her exploits leading her irregular forces - many of whom were women - against Communist partisans made her an icon for women's rights in Asia and elsewhere (plus there was how as an older woman in the 70s she got involved in LGBT-rights activism in Japan and Manchukuo). But a lot of her fame/infamy was only possible thanks to the existence of Manchukuo...
Don't forget her relationship with Zhang Xueliang (the son of Zhang Zuolin, the first Prime Minister (read: military dictator and leader of the Fengtian Clique) of the "Restored" Qing Empire) when she was younger.
 
Unsure how to avoid the breakup. Though mind you, in such a situation, Japan would be a far less powerful nation. The control of Manchukuan oil by major Imperial corporations was what fuelled the Japanese economic boom that began in the 1950s. That and other resources. Without that, I doubt they'd have had the spine or clout to prop up the anti-French rebels in Indochina, or to draw the post-independence states into the Co-Prosperity Sphere.
Which would also mean independent korea.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Technically there are more than three post-Qing states if we count Tibet, Mongolia, East Turkestan, and some of the smaller ethnic breakaway states.
 

Dolan

Banned
Technically there are more than three post-Qing states if we count Tibet, Mongolia, East Turkestan, and some of the smaller ethnic breakaway states.
Tibet is the only truly independent breakaway states that resulted from Chinese Breakup. But even then they still recognize current Qing Emperor as benefactor, if only to ward off Communist Rebels.

Mongolia and East Turkestan is SSRs technically under the Communist PRC, even if they were de facto answering to Soviet Union first.

Hong Kong, Macau, and Tsingtao are technically still part of the Qing Dynasty in Manchukuo, even if they were geographically apart and still leased to Britain, Portuguese, and Germany for another 100 years as their terms renewed in 1990s and as such, are de facto independent states. The Kuomintang would like them to join, but Anglo-German Military bases there definitely give the ROC problem if they tried to reclaim them.
 

Dolan

Banned
So, how accurate is the label many give the Qing Empire as "the Fengtian Clique's political wing"?
Only Partially though. While German-influenced Beiyang Army still hold major sway within their politics, their Parliements exists and modelled after Britain, while their Royal powers is modelled after Japanese system (minus the deification).

The Qing Manchukuo even offered (over Anglo-German mediation) to join with the ROC and formed a system of Constitutional monarchy against the communists, and it almost worked if not because Sun Yat-Sen himself gave his anti-Monarchy anti-Manchu oratory that rallies the Kuomintang Republic.
 
A good POD IMHO for this is the Japanese going ahead with their idea of assassinating Zhang Zuolin as he was an ardent Qing loyalist who after the success of the Northern Expedition turned Manchuria into a "Qing Empire" with Puyi providing political legitimacy for the Fengtian Clique's independence from the KMT.

If Zhang Zuolin got assassinated in say the 1930s, would Zhang Xueliang be able to hold the Fengtian Clique together? I mean he was quite the womanizer in his younger years, not to mention an opium addict. I doubt he would've been able to clean up his act like he did OTL. Japan would probably need to greatly increase its troop presence in Manchuria to prop up Puyi's regime which could provoke a hostile response from the KMT government.
 
You'd need to blunt Japan somehow - with them carving off Manchuko and the various coastal bits they annexed, they more or less broke China as a united entity, after which, Tibet broke off, the USSR annexted Turkestan and Mongolia, and then the communists and KMT spent the next two decades warring over the left.

Maybe have Japan try to take the rest of China - the bits they took in OTL or puppetized were near the limits, and a massive war against China may have been enough to push the Japanese out of China entirely, maybe even Chosun.

Hell, just have the crazier voices in the Japanese government win out and make them declare war on the USA.
 
We probably have to back way the hell up on this one. For one thing, there’s no Manchukuo if Japan gets destroyed, and if they go after America instead of the USSR, there’s no chance of that - they’re not beating the Yanks AND the Russians. So if they go with one of their war plans that involves starting some shit with the Americans, they’re doomed.

They pulled off a stalemate with the Russians, and it took Manchukuo about fifty years to chill the fuck out.

And really, a split China was the most realistic outcome, as big and unwieldy as it is. Look at the Indian subcontinent - two a Muslim countries, a communist republic, a Hindu nationalist dictatorship, and one state that’s ostensibly a democracy but doesn’t have its collective shit together. So China only splitting into three is probably the best outcome. North China managed to hang on as a communist state, but it isn’t so much communist anymore as authoritarian. South China, however, is a flourishing democracy and the world’s commerce and manufacturing hub.

I’m sure it just goes North-South if there’s no Manchukuo, essentially the Northern Ireland of Asia.
 
And really, a split China was the most realistic outcome, as big and unwieldy as it is. Look at the Indian subcontinent - two a Muslim countries, a communist republic, a Hindu nationalist dictatorship, and one state that’s ostensibly a democracy but doesn’t have its collective shit together
Well, India doesn't have the tradition of unity that China has (even the Maurya Empire or the Mughals nevel fully subjugated the south).
 

Dolan

Banned
Hell, just have the crazier voices in the Japanese government win out and make them declare war on the USA.
They declare war on the US over what?

Sure, the US did limit the trades for steel and oil once due to efforts of ROC Chinese lobby. Japan simply buy what they need from Anglo-German sources and get their oil (before Oil discovery in Manchuria) from Dutch East Indies.

If anything, Japan wont just attack The US unless the US has first really break into shooting war against Anglo-German alliance.
 
Well, India doesn't have the tradition of unity that China has (even the Maurya Empire or the Mughals nevel fully subjugated the south).

True but I’m still flabbergasted the UK lasted, let alone a country the size of China being united under anything. Tradition or no, I don’t picture a United China. Besides, it would be, what, a billion and a half people? And that’s assuming North China passes the one-child law and South China taxes the ever-loving shit out of any child past two. At least Manchukuo’s birth rate leveled off last decade.
 
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