DBWI: Austria-Hungary never federalized

The United States of Greater Austria (formerly known Austria-Hungary) formally federalized in 1906, dividing itself into 11 states and 6 regions seen here:

unitedstatesofgreateraustria_by_iainfluff-d3cp1pi.png


While this didn't get rid of ethnic tensions, it lessened them significantly. The VSGO managed to survive the Great War intact and will celebrate its 100th anniversary later this year.

What would have happened if Austria-Hungary never federalized?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
The Polish revolts of 1915 would maye butterflied away, considering the importance of Austrian Poland as the epicentre of the Polish uprising.
 
To be fair, the map is rather anachronistic; at the original inception the VGSO still contained Bukovina in Siebenbuergen and the Polish state of Krakow. It was really the aftermath and the eventual peaceful separation of Krakow, whom elected to secede and join the nascent Polish nation, that really solidified the promises offered by the new federation. They would not be forced to remain.

Granted, aside from Bukovina's separation, the separatists movements have not seen much other success. The aftermath of the Great European War was the cause of much destruction throughout the continent; as one of the few bastions of stability, the VGSO was an attractive place to remain for decades afterwards. By the time that peace and prosperity returned, those movements had lost a lot of their support and haven't been able to muster more than 20% of the votes, even in Hungary.

Aside from nitpicking, Midnight has about the right of it. The VGSO was unstable before and after its transition to the new Federation; it was lucky it was able to sit out of the first few months of the war. If it had to throw its forces into the trenches without taking the lessons of the first summer campaigns... morale would have been low enough to threaten the federation. An unstable monarchy would probably fare alright for a few years, and would have to be propped up by its ally. And a war will happen somewhere in the fifteen years after the founding of the VGSO. Perhaps earlier or later, but it will happen.
 
To be fair, the map is rather anachronistic; at the original inception the VGSO still contained Bukovina in Siebenbuergen and the Polish state of Krakow. It was really the aftermath and the eventual peaceful separation of Krakow, whom elected to secede and join the nascent Polish nation, that really solidified the promises offered by the new federation. They would not be forced to remain.

Granted, aside from Bukovina's separation, the separatists movements have not seen much other success. The aftermath of the Great European War was the cause of much destruction throughout the continent; as one of the few bastions of stability, the VGSO was an attractive place to remain for decades afterwards. By the time that peace and prosperity returned, those movements had lost a lot of their support and haven't been able to muster more than 20% of the votes, even in Hungary.

Aside from nitpicking, Midnight has about the right of it. The VGSO was unstable before and after its transition to the new Federation; it was lucky it was able to sit out of the first few months of the war. If it had to throw its forces into the trenches without taking the lessons of the first summer campaigns... morale would have been low enough to threaten the federation. An unstable monarchy would probably fare alright for a few years, and would have to be propped up by its ally. And a war will happen somewhere in the fifteen years after the founding of the VGSO. Perhaps earlier or later, but it will happen.

One thing I always wondered is how a ethnically and religiously heterogeneous state like the VSGO survived but the homogeneous German empire broke along sectarian lines.
 
One thing I always wondered is how a ethnically and religiously heterogeneous state like the VSGO survived but the homogeneous German empire broke along sectarian lines.

Let's not forget that the problems of dissident nationalities never really went away in the VSGO, regardless of what Luminous says above. Even a hundred years after federalisation, the phrase "prison house of nations" can still raise a cheer in Prague or Budapest.

And when you look at how things turned out in Grosskroatien, it's not hard to see why. The workers' and students' movement of 1968 may finally have opened up that particular society, but it was too late for all the people who were hammered by the "croatisation" policies of the '30s and '40s.

Most of all, we'd better not forget what happened in Serbia. When Russia was busy with the Polish revolts, Vienna was able to put down that fractious country on its borders - but the verdict has to be that they made a desert and called it peace.

If you can call it peace. For a century now Serbia has been a nominally independent state, and a de facto province of the VSGO - and it's been a running sore in VSGO politics, and in European politics. It very nearly sparked another Great War in the 1990s, and it might well do so again. Could the VSGO survive the shocks a second Great War would inevitably bring?
 
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