alternatehistory.com

In 1988, Vice-President George Bush defeated Colorado Senator Gary Hart to become America's 41st President. Hart initially had a massive polling lead after taking the Democratic nomination, but his support evaporated during the general election campaign. The Republicans relentlessly attacked Hart for his McGovernite past, and accusations of womanizing constantly dogged the telegenic Senator. Hart refused to respond to the attacks, believing such politics were beneath him and instead tried to focus on his "New Ideas." A major highlight of the campaign was a disastrous press conference when Hart snapped at the media for questioning his personal conduct. When asked about the issue of adultery during his TV debate with Bush, Hart froze and broke out into a sweat before stammering the widely panned answer, "that's not a fair question Mr. Shaw!" Hart's gaffes and weak campaign allowed Bush to take the lead and win the election.

But suppose that Hart had been taken down by a sex scandal during the Democratic primaries, and anyone of the other candidates had been nominated instead. Which one of them stood the best chance of beating Bush, and what are the odds of them actually winning the election?
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