Well, given the absolute failure of the Japanese to stage a successful sneak attack and their poor performance in the subsequent battles of 10 and 14 December, 1941, against an inferior USN carrier force, it is hard to imagine the war lasting past 1943 even with the situation you propose.
Regarding the points raised by Johnrankins, if Kimmel had not planned for this contingency as famously well as he did or somebody had misinterpreted radar signals, it wouldn't have mattered what kind of planes were sitting in their dispersed bunkers at Hickham. P-47s blow up when hit by bombs as well as P-36's. As it was, even F2As and P-36s would have been adequate against the Japanese pilots who did not expect to be met in the air while still approaching Oahu.
One thought does occur, however. Had the US lost the battle of Pearl Harbor as you propose with the heavy losses you suggest, the mood of the American people would have been much more demanding of revenge against Japan. Japan, on the other hand, would actually believe they might win the war and be emboldened to fight to the finish. This might have created a situation in which a negotiated peace was impossible. As it was, the Japanese failure at Pearl, coupled with the general inability of the Japanese to sieze other US and British posessions as quickly as they hoped led to the fall of the Tojo regime and its replacement by a government sufficiently palatable to the the US that we were willing to negotiate the armistice in June 1942 that secured a peaceful evacuation of Japanese invading forces from the Phillipines and other US and British territory, Japanese peace negotiations with the Chaing government in China, healthy reparations, and eventual Japanese entry into the war against Hitler.