DBWI: American Civil War delayed 10-20 years?

Say the Democratic vote isn't split in the 1860 election (say one of the candidates falls ill, or something forces him out--which is up to you) and Lincoln, while doing very well in the polls, falls just shy of election?

Would his very close call bring sense to the South? Would some radicals such as SC begin a sort of terror campaign to keep their political enemies in line? Would any of the middle states be wooed to join either side at the offset? The lands farther west? What roll would the native americans play?

More importantly, how would the industrialization and immigration of the later 1800s play a role in arming either side?
 
Well, you could delay the Civil War by a decade or two if Zachary Taylor had won the election. He was defeated by Lewis Cass, but I understand that he was a strong opponent of the secessionist movement in the south, which is ironic given that he owned a plantation and a hundred slaves. The butterflies would from his victory would interesting to watch.
 
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