The UK can use maritime superiority to win the Battle of the Atlantic, albeit with higher losses and more time, and if the war goes on long enough reoccupy Crete, the Aegean Islands and probably Sicily, Sardinia, and Corsica. North Africa will finally go against the Germans, what happens in Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco is fuzzier and depends on Free France vs Vichy. If they wish Britain/Free French will end up controlling French possessions everywhere else, although the Japanese might take Indochina and some Pacific Islands. Peninsular Italy is not happening, Norway is a maybe but unlikely.
Absent the manpower and industry of the USA the UK/Commonwealth, even absent the Pacific War, is not going back to the continent. Absent LL, just relying on what gets there via cash and carry, the USSR has major issues. With only night bombing, more of the Luftwaffe is going to be on the Eastern Front and the Soviet aviation is now handicapped by fewer aircraft and very little high octane gasoline, making the war in the air pretty much in favor of the Germans. Absent the HUGE amount of railway equipment that LL sent (locomotives, rolling stock, rails) the factories are going to have make that rather than tanks - if they don't have adequate rail service their logistics are totally screwed. Trucks, don't go there. The UK/Commonwealth cannot make up this deficit, partly perhaps, but only partly and don't forget they have no LL either.
Absent the manpower and industry of the USA the UK/Commonwealth, even absent the Pacific War, is not going back to the continent. Absent LL, just relying on what gets there via cash and carry, the USSR has major issues. With only night bombing, more of the Luftwaffe is going to be on the Eastern Front and the Soviet aviation is now handicapped by fewer aircraft and very little high octane gasoline, making the war in the air pretty much in favor of the Germans. Absent the HUGE amount of railway equipment that LL sent (locomotives, rolling stock, rails) the factories are going to have make that rather than tanks - if they don't have adequate rail service their logistics are totally screwed. Trucks, don't go there. The UK/Commonwealth cannot make up this deficit, partly perhaps, but only partly and don't forget they have no LL either.