DBWI AHC screw Paraguay

While Americans don't think that much about Paraguay, the country was in the news this year due to the Olympics being held there and the coup, and it has been the leading regional power in South America. It was considered part of the emerging PRIGS bloc. How do you alter the country's history to make it as weak and as impoverished as plausible?
 
How early are we allowed to make the PoD? Looking at the history of the nation on wilkipedia, starting at the beginning, I'm impressed by how much there is to work with. Jose Gaspar Rodriguez de Francia (1766-1840) had an interesting sounding dictatorship (and unlike other founding fathers, he held power for life).

OOC: I realize you're implying no War of the Triple Alliance, but I figured I'd help by establishing the PoD after 1840. This may be interesting.
 
Well, the rise of Paraguay depended hugely on the lucky timing of their self-assertion in the Southern Cone. They managed to confront then Argentina at a time of critical division, resulting in its collapse. At that point, with friendly Chile, Entre Rios and Tucuman, Paraguay could go on to vassalize Uruguay having only Brazil to worry about. And the Brazilian army was in pitiful state at that point. The political instability and internal division that followed that defeat allowed Paraguay to profit and support the Gaucho Republic of Rio Grande in its successful Second war of Independence. The fall of the monarchy crippled Brazil permanently and permitted Paraguay to consolidate its dominant position.
When Brazil, Buenos Aires and even Tucuman recovered, they did so in a Paraguay-dominated context and had actually no desire to challenge that as they profited from the regional stability that Asuncion guaranteed (except for the Partition of Bolivia of course, but that was a reaction to Chilean action for the most part).
However, if Imperial Brazil and Argentina could keep themselves together, they'd outmatch Paraguay so much it's not even funny. The country could be sandwiched between far stronger neighbours and be screwed. Now, both states collapsed mainly as a consequence of well-timed Paraguayan intervention, but it did not have to be necessarily the case. If Paraguay had antagonised both countries at the same time, even in their sorry state, it would have probably lacked the resources and population to emerge to dominance.
Think of the Swedish empire.
 
Falecius above is correct that Paraguay got a lucky break in that its main rival was Brazil, a rather ridiculous monarchy -in the Western hemisphere- that was not Spanish speaking to boot. They key might be the development of a more responsible government in Brazil, which in itself would have massive butterflies. Maybe if the "Emperor" Pedro didn't live so long and descend into senility, or maybe have him go back to Portugal when his father died as he in fact considered, you can even keep the monarchy as his son had some promise.

"Argentina" never really came together as a unified nation -maybe if the battle of Pavon had gone the other way?- and at any rate was hostile to Brazil.

But obtaining Uruguay was key, Montevideo is the best port in South America and in fact is now the largest city in Paraguay and without it the country would be landlocked.
 
But obtaining Uruguay was key, Montevideo is the best port in South America and in fact is now the largest city in Paraguay and without it the country would be landlocked.

Quite true. What's quite ironic is that the citizens in the Paraguayan Heartland (aside from Asuncion) are complaining that government and the economy is dominated by Montevideo and the Southern Districts. And despite the Central Paraguay Districts being in a really good financial and economic shape compered to the surrounding Argentine, Bolivian, and Brazilian regions, many citizens in the region move to the South and Montevideo to chase the dream of riches and comfort. And most of those citizens DO become well-off and comfortable.

For the Uruguayans, life became more secure with the Paraguayan military protection that they managed to convince European investors to build industries in Montevideo. Looking back, the Uruguayans, with their huge capital and industrial advantage, had so many chances of re-asserting their 'independence' from Paraguay through their European connections, but didn't really do so, opting to dominate Paraguay and control its military from within instead. In a way, the conquered Uruguayans ended up becoming the overlords of their conquerors through their shrewd economic and political sense.
 
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