[DBWI] AHC: Make Sir James Headlam-Morley's nightmare scenario come true

It is amusing in retrospect how after the World War, so many people had ovewrought visions of how another such catastrophe might occur. Take for example this memorandum of Sir James Headlam-Morley to Austen Chamberlain in February 1925:

"Has anyone attempted to realize what would happen if there were to be a new partition of Poland, or if the Czechoslovak state were to be so curtailed and dismembered that in fact it disappeared from the map of Europe? The whole of Europe would at once be in chaos. There would no longer be any principle, meaning, or sense in the territorial arrangements of the continent. Imagine, for instance, that under some improbable condition, Austria rejoined Germany; that Germany using the discontented minority in Bohemia, demanded a new frontier far over the mountains. . . and that at the same time, in alliance with Germany, the Hungarians recovered the southern slope of the Carpathians. This would be catastrophic, and, even if we neglected to interfere in time to prevent it, we should afterwards be driven to interfere, probably too late." https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet.dli.2015.227068/2015.227068.Studies-In#page/n191

Can anyone see a scenario where Headlam-Morley's nightmare actually comes true--unlikely as it seems today after a century of peace in Europe? You need a militaristic German regime, presumably led by the East Prussian Junkers--but exactly this makes the business about an Anschluss and the Sudetenland as a German irredenta so implausible. The Junkers had no use for an Anschluss which would bring too many Catholics into the Reich. Nor did they have any real interest in Czechoslovakia--as with Austria, it had too many Catholics and had never been part of the Kaiserreich, anyway. Their beef was with Poland.

The "new partition of Poland" seems more plausible but still unlikely. True, Germany could cooperate with Soviet Russia in the 1920's when Russia was still backward. But as the USSR grew in strength in the 1930's, would any sane German government really want it as a neighbor? Keeping Poland as a buffer state and gradually using economic and diplomatic moves to get it to adopt a pro-German foreign policy--and maybe even to make territorial concessions, especially Danzig, which could safely revert to Germany once the port of Gdynia was developed--makes more sense.
 
Obviously quite the German-phobe, but it is barely possible. If everything went the Germans way it is somewhat possible for them to pull it off. France and GB would have to sit on their butts and do nothing about it which seems very unlikely to say the least. Besides, the Germans were whipped and knew they were whipped in the First Great War, I doubt they were eager for round 2.
 
Have you visited the Sudeten?
The Czechoslovakian border forts would have been more than a match for the Reichsheer.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Have you visited the Sudeten?
The Czechoslovakian border forts would have been more than a match for the Reichsheer.
The southern fortifications are weak. If Austria was to be annexed into the Reich Czechoslovakia would be encircled by the Germans and Hungarians and surely destroyed. And remember - the bomber will always get through. Germany can destroy Czechoslovakia from above.
 
The southern fortifications are weak. If Austria was to be annexed into the Reich Czechoslovakia would be encircled by the Germans and Hungarians and surely destroyed. And remember - the bomber will always get through. Germany can destroy Czechoslovakia from above.
In late 1930s, yes. But advances in radar telemetry and the new generation Czechoslovak aircraft had changed that situation considerably only five years later. I've seen the speculations about that perceived window of vulnerability, but its grasping straws, really.

IF Austria is somehow annexed, IF Italy accepts that, IF Poland and Czechoslovakia remain mutually antagonistic despite their sane geopolitical interests, IF Hungary is allowed to disarm, IF France does not lift a finger to help the Little Entente...I mean, the total propability is larger than zero, but its still all rather fantastical, isn't it?
 
There was this Strausser dude who advocated a remilitarization of Germany under his lead, ala Mussolini in Italy. I don't think he'd ally with the balkan rump states though
IF Austria is somehow annexed, IF Italy accepts that, IF Poland and Czechoslovakia remain mutually antagonistic despite their sane geopolitical interests, IF Hungary is allowed to disarm, IF France does not lift a finger to help the Little Entente...I mean, the total propability is larger than zero, but its still all rather fantastical, isn't it?
France's instability during this period means it not doing anything is more likely than most like to think. Granted, an angry vengeful Germany might drive it into unity, but who knows. there was that failed Communist revolt in Provence in 42, and a reactionary Germany might use that as a reason to invade 'restoration of order'

No idea how this would impact the rise of Imperial Federalism. Can't imagine it would butterfly the 52 Federation though
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
In late 1930s, yes. But advances in radar telemetry and the new generation Czechoslovak aircraft had changed that situation considerably only five years later. I've seen the speculations about that perceived window of vulnerability, but its grasping straws, really.
And a few years after that the Germans brought jet aircraft into service. It wasn’t until guided missiles were introduced in the 1960s that they could be reliably countered.
 
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