While Guderian's plan to push through the Ardennes and race to the Channel was sound, it had no chance against the French Army defending their land for the third time in as many generations. Two weeks later the French were occupying the Rhur while Germany crumbled into a three way civil war between the Nazi Party, SS, and Wehrmacht.
So your challenge if you choose to accept it is for the reverse to happen. And please don't shout ASB just yet.
I have gamed this battle/campaign repeatedly and have been called heretic for proposing that French doctrine and firepower would not have squelched the German offense under all circumstances. My contention is the break down in communications between the the several Corps HQ in Panzer Group Kliest and the Luftwaffe on 12 and 13 May was not a given. This sort of failure had was not evident in the rehearsal exercises in March and April, and was not across the board. The Pz Corps at Dinant had timely and accurate air support, as did all the Pz Corps from the 14th on.
My contention is had the three corps of PzGrp Kliest, attacking at Montherme, and Sedan had the air support typical of the rest of the campaign viable bridgeheads would have been established at least at Sedan and Dinant, and probably at Monthereme. The the relatively thin defenses at those locations (or better described as brittle in the case of Sedan) would have probably collapsed before reserves arrived to reinforce the threatened sectors. The track record of the Pz Corps in Poland and later in France shows clearly that once the enemy line was ruptured and the mechanized force through the defense was in real trouble.
In the case of the assualts across the Meuse river the failure of the essential air support meant the French had the 48 hours they needed to reinforce the threatened sectors and create the sort of artillery killing grounds the lightly armored German Pz Corps could not stand up to. I've gamed this one out many times with different game systems and the usual result is just 24 hours after breakthrough unimpeded by reserves is enough for the German PzCorps to consolidate their bridgeheads and disrupt fatally the French 2d and 9th Armies.
Skiping over the details the end result is usually the Allied armies consolidating south of Paris, with both side exhausted but the Germans claiming stratigic victory due to their possesing the bulk of French industry, population centers, as well as all of Belgium.
All this comes back to the Luftwaffe doing its staff work properly on the 12th and 13th May. The airstrikes rehearsed in April were massive and should have been devastating to the defenders. Such airstrikes succeeded on many other occasions. Odds are the defenders at Sedan, and perhaps Monthereme would have had their morale broken by the weight of the planned air attacks allowing at least Guderians Pz Corps a viable bridgehead and time to manuver. I'd also contend the severe casualties that crippled the Pz Corps would have been reduced, allowing them to take on larger French forces attempting to intervene, reinforce, and counter attack.
No need for ASB, or complex PoD reaching back years or decades, just the Luftwaffe staff not failing at a critical moment.
