DBWI: Afghanistan refuses to hand over Bin Laden and other Al-Qaeda leaders?

Aaaaasima

Following 9/11, President Bush gave an ultimatum to the Taliban government of Afghanistan, then only recognized by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan, to hand over the men responsible for the attack. The Taliban agreed, but it lead to an Al-Qaeda insurgency and the US sending troops to Afghanistan to fight Al-Qaeda, but also ending up fighting the Northern Alliance which was also against the Taliban. In return for its cooperation, the US recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate Afghan government, and so did other nations until it was given a seat in the UN in 2003.

But what if the Taliban government had refused to hand over Bin Laden? Many in the government wanted to spite the US and not listen to it. How bad would the War in Afghanistan be? What would Pakistan do, seeing as how it supported the IEA in the 1990s and does so today, and what about US-Pakistan relations, which IOTL are great? Would Turkey still be a member of NATO what with its support of the Northern Alliance? Would Bush still be seen as a good president?
 
Psmith

Psmith

The US would come in on the Afghans hard, with NATO in tow. They'd unleash everything at their disposal, wipe the floor with the Taliban and be done and dusted by 2003, with Bin Laden either shipped off for trial or more likely just executed. Basically just imagine what happened in Iran in 2011, then apply that to a country with half the population and 5% the GDP. The only thing the Taliban would have is the harsh terrain, which may have worked against the Soviets but sure as hell wouldn't work against the far more versatile forces of NATO. The American counter-insurgency ops against Al-Qaeda are another good taster: fast, quite destructive but very efficient.
This would probably lead to a very different round of 2005 elections in the West: for the United States Bush would be untainted by having "gone easy" on the Taliban (which people are still angry about, even though they got Bin Laden back) and so the Democrats wouldn't have that window to touch a raw nerve that had ruptured the American Right. Bush could get a second term which would have some pretty big implications considering the actions of his successor (among them the aforementioned ordeal in Iran). Meanwhile, Tony Blair wouldn't have caused a milder iteration of the same phenomenon for the British Left, by siding with and enthusiastically backing up Bush's overtures, as well as providing the largest non-US contingent in the counter-insurgency. The absence of a controversy over his support for the recognition and military support of the Taliban could mean a better result for him at the British General Election, and possibly avert the collapse of his 3rd Ministry in 2007.
Overall, lots of changes, but the sure thing is that Afghanistan was an arrogant fly that was extremely lucky to curry the grace of the American juggernaut. Had it
 

West

The Taliban are defeated and flee to Pakastan, Pakastan then sheilds the afgani fighters, their spy network arms and supplies them and they smile at the US and its allies as it plays both eventally the americans get tired and leave, the taliban come back and retake the country.

Pakastan is never going to allow a pontental ally to india to rise in afganistan, they will do anything to prevent that and though the taliban are horrible their a reliable client state and thats always going to come first.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top