DBWI: 2005 Chinese Revolution Fails

One of the most poignant moments that was caused by China's democratization was Japan's Emperor Akhito formally apologizing about war crimes from WWII in 2010. It was 65 years late, but for my grandparents who suffered during the Bataan Death March, it couldn't have come sooner. My guess is that without a democratic China applying political and economic pressure both at the United Nations and G-8 Summits, Japan would have dismissed calls for apology indefinitely.

What was even more remarkable was that the apology was spoken not in Japanese, but in surprisingly fluent English (we forget after World War II, Akihito learned English under the tutelage of Elizabeth Gran Vining, and he kept up his fluency by become a subscriber to National Geographic magazine; the editors at that magazine were so impressed that in 1960 he effectively got a free lifetime subscription). But why English? I think with good reason: the Japanese government wanted the apology to be easily understood by most people in the world, given that English arguably the most widely used language in terms of business and even science. The Imperial Household apparently learned from the experience of the Emperor Shōwa (aka. Hirohito), because that Emperor's use of the old kobun dialect of Classical Japanese made that speech to announce Japan's surrender in World War II almost unintelligible to even the average Japanese of the day, let alone trying to translate it to another language!
 
No chance that KMT would try to return to the homeland after a fall of Chine one party system? So try to form a new organization, adopt a program seeking for democratization and liberalization, trying to gain the votes of the middle and upper classes?

OOC: Why would the middle and upper classes of the mainland join and organize under a party with so much historical baggage, and which is run by dinosaurs in Taipei? They can form their own party from a totally blank slate. It won't be called the KMT for sure. And, don't forget, the CPC simply renamed itself and transformed into something like Singapore's PAP or Mexico's PRI; it will still largely co-opt these classes.


Also, how lower will China's population be with the one-child policy still in place? Also, could Japan and the other European states reverse their declining birth rates with the CPC around (as the UPPP made a four-child campaign and then a five-child campaign to stabilize the population without making it decline).
The UPPP can introduce as many incentives to childbirth as they wish, but given the soaring real estate prices in Chinese megacities and career pressures on Chinese women, I don't think the CPC could have affected the birth rate for too much.

It's really no surprise that the countries with the lowest birth rates in the world are all wealthy Chinese or Chinese-influenced: Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong. And none of them ever had One Child Policies.
 
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Almost all of Japan's public debt is owed to Japanese banks, pension funds, and individual investors. Japan defaulting on its debt for any reason would immediately destroy its entire banking system and cause a major global crisis.

All it needs to do to stimulate its economy after the disaster is to start Abenomics 18 months earlier: expand the money supply and fund reconstruction projects, and gain export earnings from a devalued Yen.
 
Yeah, many banks collapsed around the world collapsed... Many entered a recession in 2011-12 and into Q2 2013(since the default happened on 13 May 2011). Some didn't recover until Q3 2014. The only ones that were not that affeced were Russia, China and the Philippines (their growth lowered to about 5.4% in 2013 before booming to 11.3% in 2014 after turning away from Japan and towards China and Russia).

At least all of the world has recovered (or begun recovery) from the dual recessions of 2008-09 and 2011-14. Japan today is stable now. The LDP lost all of its credibility in 2013, and the DPJ and SDPJ rose to prominence, and they managed to fix the economy.

Also, Japan is starting to experience population growth now with its four-child program.


OOC: EternalCynic, is your statement OOC? Because a default really happens ITTL.
 
One of the strangest events since the democratization of China, has been pop cultural obsession with Mao-Tse-tung, which could be easily compared to the cult of Stalin in Putin's Russia. This makes me wonder, what is with the huge fascination with their dictatorial past? We don't see a mainstream cult of Hitler fascinaton in Merkel's Germany.
 
OOC: Yes, that is really true. There is literally no advantage for Japan defaulting. Even the polite and peaceful Japanese people will riot and hang their government from the lamppost if they find their life savings gone instantly.

Since almost all its debt is owned by Japanese, and since Japan doesn't suffer from inflation (precisely the opposite in fact), the reconstruction bill can be paid by simply printing money, which is exactly what happened when Shinzo Abe was elected in late 2013. IIRC, financial markets were destabilized by Japanese insurance companies selling overseas holdings to pay claims, but central banks are good at mitigating such shocks.
 
At least all of the world has recovered (or begun recovery) from the dual recessions of 2008-09 and 2011-14. Japan today is stable now. The LDP lost all of its credibility in 2013, and the DPJ and SDPJ rose to prominence, and they managed to fix the economy.

Also, Japan is starting to experience population growth now with its four-child program.

That's why Japan's current Prime Minister is a woman: Renhō Murata, only 47 years old (as of 2015). She was the second-youngest person ever to become PM, assuming the post slightly older than the age Itō Hirobumi first became PM historically. She instituted many major reforms, including the major tax code changes to encourage more children in families and encourage growth in rural areas.

One plan--though controversial initially--was to reduce the number of areas growing rice and encouraging more production of fruits and vegetables in many farm fields. But it has resulted in a large variety of fruits and vegetables now available at way lower cost--and in fact, one of the fastest-growing sectors are the farmers' markets from the increased fruit and vegetable production (go see the farmers' markets at Utsunomiya north of Tokyo or just east of Chiba city southeast of Tokyo--they get huge numbers of patrons on weekends).

But getting back on topic, what Renhō-san implemented is similar to what the Chinese are now doing--they are reducing number of areas used to grow staple crops in favor of higher-value crops likes fruits and vegetables. That does explain why in southern China, we're seeing the expansion of the growth of tropical fruits like bananas and mangoes along with much-increased vegetable production. There's now a gigantic farmers' market just west of Shenzhen (next to Hong Kong) that has attracted customers not only in Hong Kong, but now as far away as Guangzhou (Canton).
 
And Tito in former Yugoslavia.

I know, the cult worship of dictators, including Mao Tse-tung seems terribly strange. A European friend has said its like the American cult of Ronald Reagan or the British Tory cult of Margaret Thatcher. Any thoughts?
 
Well for most of them, people celebrate the stability of their times. I really don't understand the cult of Mao, especially today China's democratic,and they even destroyed almost all Mao statues and whatnot across China during the Revolution, but now there's a resurgence of pro-Mao sentiment. Strange. Or maybe these are instigated by still-communist-at-heart Chinese politicians. Strange indeed.
 
That's why Japan's current Prime Minister is a woman: Renhō Murata, only 47 years old (as of 2015). She was the second-youngest person ever to become PM, assuming the post slightly older than the age Itō Hirobumi first became PM historically. She instituted many major reforms, including the major tax code changes to encourage more children in families and encourage growth in rural areas.

One plan--though controversial initially--was to reduce the number of areas growing rice and encouraging more production of fruits and vegetables in many farm fields. But it has resulted in a large variety of fruits and vegetables now available at way lower cost--and in fact, one of the fastest-growing sectors are the farmers' markets from the increased fruit and vegetable production (go see the farmers' markets at Utsunomiya north of Tokyo or just east of Chiba city southeast of Tokyo--they get huge numbers of patrons on weekends).

But getting back on topic, what Renhō-san implemented is similar to what the Chinese are now doing--they are reducing number of areas used to grow staple crops in favor of higher-value crops likes fruits and vegetables. That does explain why in southern China, we're seeing the expansion of the growth of tropical fruits like bananas and mangoes along with much-increased vegetable production. There's now a gigantic farmers' market just west of Shenzhen (next to Hong Kong) that has attracted customers not only in Hong Kong, but now as far away as Guangzhou (Canton).

Really laud her for her efforts. Her efforts show that economic recovery is always next door, and that population declines can be reversed.

Other model countries are Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Germany and China.

Esp. The first three. All of them have recovered from the chaos of the 90s. (Ukraine's population from 47M to 50M, Russia from 144M to 149M, thereby returning to 1990 levels, Belarus from 9.7 to 11.1M; good job people!)
 
Well for most of them, people celebrate the stability of their times. I really don't understand the cult of Mao, especially today China's democratic,and they even destroyed almost all Mao statues and whatnot across China during the Revolution, but now there's a resurgence of pro-Mao sentiment. Strange. Or maybe these are instigated by still-communist-at-heart Chinese politicians. Strange indeed.

I don't see what's strange about it. The euphoria where Mao statues were destroyed only lasted a few weeks. Then, the reality of needing a stable government kicked in and that's when the CPC dissolved itself and the UPPP which consists mostly of ex-Communists was founded. People look highly on Mao for reuniting the country under a stable government and expelling foreign imperialists.

It's no more strange than British people venerating Cromwell and French people venerating Napoleon even though proportionally they were far bloodier than Mao.
 
I don't see what's strange about it. The euphoria where Mao statues were destroyed only lasted a few weeks. Then, the reality of needing a stable government kicked in and that's when the CPC dissolved itself and the UPPP which consists mostly of ex-Communists was founded. People look highly on Mao for reuniting the country under a stable government and expelling foreign imperialists.

It's no more strange than British people venerating Cromwell and French people venerating Napoleon even though proportionally they were far bloodier than Mao.

Well at the very least, it has created some strange events. For instance, there is a community of Chinese immigrants in San Francisco is trying to install a statue in Chinatown's Portsmouth Square, which ironically has a statue of the Chinese Goddess of Democracy,...

Apparently there is a similar situation developing in Scottsdale, Arizona....
 
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