DBAHC: Switch the fates of Russia and France in the Great War

The Great War ultimately ended in a victory for the Entente powers. The German army, despite its advances into Poland, was ground down by superior Russian numbers and production capacity. Ultimately the Russians broke the back of Austria-Hungary in 1918, resulting in Germany's surrender as Communist and Republican revolutionaries tore the country apart. Russia dominated eastern Europe, a domination that has yet to be broken despite the challenges of the Second Great War.

Russia and Britain's Republican ally, on the other hand, fared significantly worse. France, true to its revolutionary tradition, suffered a Communist revolution, shocking the world. In hindsight, the reasons for these dynamics are clear. France had a proletariat that was far more class conscious, and had an established revolutionary tradition in Paris; meanwhile, the Russian people were fully behind the Tsar in what they saw as the second Napoleonic invasion and the conditions in Russia were completely wrong for Marxist revolution. Your challenge, then, is to switch the fate of France and Russia; have France survive the war intact and a great power, while have Russia collapse to Communist revolution.
 
Oh boy, this will require many PODs. We could try to have the Russo Japanese War fare badly for Russia. This will make Cherished Sunday go bad. REAL bad. IOTL Tsar Nicholas II had a small protest occur for constitutional rights and a new Duma. He accepted IOTL, but with the war going badly and radicalism high, he may use military force against the protestors. This will cause the Russian people to grow more radical and hate the Tsar. 2nd POD would be for Brusilov to die an early death, leaving Russia without an able commander to fight in the war. The war will go badly, and the Russian people will holding anti war sentiment. The Germans will fund any radical group, and perhaps fund the Mensheviks. The Mensheviks will stage a revolt, and hold a coup against the Tsar. With popular support, the Mensheviks will easily take over. They will sign a peace with Germany, and end the war on the Eastern Front. However, the military will still support the Tsar, and a civil war shall errupt.

As things get even worse, the Mensheviks will grow radical and look to a strong figure. Leon Trotsky seems like a good candidate, but OTL he was a moderate Menshevik. Alexander Kerensky is very likely. After all, he grew dissatisfied with the political situation in Russia and looked up to France. He'll take over the government, and with German funding, win the civil war in 1920. In 1921, he will declare the Revolutionary Russian Socialist Republic, and Russia will progress along the ideals of social democracy like France did.

For France, this may just be even harder. Have Georges Ernest Boulanger not succeed in his coup, and manage to divide the political right. He'll flee France, and leave it in control of the socialist left. They'll make concessions to the workers, and satisfy their demands. This will make them less sympathetic to the SFIO. The socialists will dominate until the start of the Great War.

This is where our next POD comes into play. Have the Second International not be unified in opposition to the war, and broken up. The Socialist Party in France will take the nation to war, and fight with a populace largely supporting it on the grounds of "liberating the German workers and throwing the Kaiser off his horse". This might unsettle the Entente, but let's go with it. The Germans will fight mainly in the Western Front to knock France out of the war quickly like OTL, but fail due to our final POD: have Phillip Petain not be killed by a German spy. He will survive the war, and lay out well detailed plans of defense for France. His conservative and anti communist stance may hurt his promotion, but he's not one to surrender to the Germans either.

By 1918, the French will be pushing into Germany thanks to Petain's military leadership. British and American aid will gurrantee this. The same rebels that plagued Germany will plague them here, and by 1919 the war will be over. France will get a slice of the pie in the Treaty of the Somme, and perhaps even a few German colonies.

That's my best attempt at reversing the Great War fates for both nation's. It's not likely, but it's the best I can come up with.
 
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