DB: President Osama bin Laden is dead

Osama bin Laden, president of the Islamic Arabian Republic, died yesterday of kidney failure. The Deputy President (apparently he hasn't been sworn in yet as President) declared a national day of mourning for the IAR.

Good riddance to the raving loonie hypocrite. Go on and on about the evil West, then pocket their cash as they buy your oil.

(OOC: The IAR = Saudi Arabia following a revolution that took place, say, sometime in the 90s)
 

ninebucks

Banned
Good riddance to bad rubbish.

I hope they select someone less crazy to take over, but the chances of that are slim to none...
 
I wonder if Saddam will use this to invade Arabia again

I doubt it. His position is too tenuous even with all the Western support he's been getting, and if there is one thing that could unify Arabia, it's another Baathist invasion.

I'm more concerned about what will happen in the IAR. The people are not exactly happy with the Salafist party, but unless I'm much mistaken there are no credible challengers to the junta. IIRC Qarim b. Saleh has recently been mooted as a successor, but I'm not sure a radical like him has the support of the army and he is reputed to be *quite* unpopular with many people in the Majlis. On the other hand, who else is there? Saad b. Mohammed b. Aweed is still 'in meditative retreat' and I don't think he's coming back now. The exile communities are a joke (Bandar still makes royal proclamations from St Tropez, yould you believe it). Most of b. Laden's 'old guard' are retired or very soon will be. Anyone care to speculate?
 

ninebucks

Banned
I doubt it. His position is too tenuous even with all the Western support he's been getting, and if there is one thing that could unify Arabia, it's another Baathist invasion.

I'm more concerned about what will happen in the IAR. The people are not exactly happy with the Salafist party, but unless I'm much mistaken there are no credible challengers to the junta. IIRC Qarim b. Saleh has recently been mooted as a successor, but I'm not sure a radical like him has the support of the army and he is reputed to be *quite* unpopular with many people in the Majlis. On the other hand, who else is there? Saad b. Mohammed b. Aweed is still 'in meditative retreat' and I don't think he's coming back now. The exile communities are a joke (Bandar still makes royal proclamations from St Tropez, yould you believe it). Most of b. Laden's 'old guard' are retired or very soon will be. Anyone care to speculate?

Isn't Bin Saleh that guy the Israelis keep trying to whack? The way he keeps avoiding the bullets and the blasts should surely be winning him some support.

Ultimately, I reckon it will be a military man who gets the position. Like General Obaid, or General al-Juwair. Which would probably be pretty bad for regional peace, seeing as the military are very opposed to the 'Americanisation' of the Gulf states...
 
I doubt it. His position is too tenuous even with all the Western support he's been getting, and if there is one thing that could unify Arabia, it's another Baathist invasion.

Well with Edward starting his second term with a personal scandal at home, openly supporting a dictator while he invade a country might not be a good idea. (Should have follow Clinton exemple and keep his mistress hidden until after your term is over)

Anyway the CIA work in mysterious way they probably want a guy that his manageable and can work fast because they want at least a clear leader in the region. As you can see since OBL died the price of oil skyrocketted.
 
Well with Edward starting his second term with a personal scandal at home, openly supporting a dictator while he invade a country might not be a good idea. (Should have follow Clinton exemple and keep his mistress hidden until after your term is over)

Anyway the CIA work in mysterious way they probably want a guy that his manageable and can work fast because they want at least a clear leader in the region. As you can see since OBL died the price of oil skyrocketted.

I can't see the CIA backing losers, and an Iraqi invasion is a losing proposition right now. And it won't help the President with his personal problems to get into a big war (something small could work, maybe another Somalia, that went reasonably well, even though it pissed off the Arabs no end).

If I were in charge, I'd say watch the big slogging match from outside and congratulate the winner, whoever he is. The oil price spike is mostly psychological right now, and the USA has Iraq and Kuwait as suppliers even if the IAR drops out of the game. Of course if the fight lasts too long, it might be a good idea to pick a wionner through a proxy faction. Just bear in mind how most Arabs feel about the USA before choosing to go in in any function.
 

ninebucks

Banned
If I were in charge, I'd say watch the big slogging match from outside and congratulate the winner, whoever he is. The oil price spike is mostly psychological right now, and the USA has Iraq and Kuwait as suppliers even if the IAR drops out of the game. Of course if the fight lasts too long, it might be a good idea to pick a wionner through a proxy faction. Just bear in mind how most Arabs feel about the USA before choosing to go in in any function.

That sounds like the Israeli position, after spending the past decade and a half having to bomb covert military research bases in the Arab powers, (Osirak, Hamidiyya, etc.), many in the IDF and Mossad probably feel like it'd be a good idea to push Arabia and Iraq into war.
 
I doubt it. His position is too tenuous even with all the Western support he's been getting, and if there is one thing that could unify Arabia, it's another Baathist invasion.

I'm more concerned about what will happen in the IAR. The people are not exactly happy with the Salafist party, but unless I'm much mistaken there are no credible challengers to the junta. IIRC Qarim b. Saleh has recently been mooted as a successor, but I'm not sure a radical like him has the support of the army and he is reputed to be *quite* unpopular with many people in the Majlis. On the other hand, who else is there? Saad b. Mohammed b. Aweed is still 'in meditative retreat' and I don't think he's coming back now. The exile communities are a joke (Bandar still makes royal proclamations from St Tropez, yould you believe it). Most of b. Laden's 'old guard' are retired or very soon will be. Anyone care to speculate?

Isn't 'in meditative retreat' double-speak for in prison (maybe executed)? It's my understanding that bin Ladin could have shown the Nazis a thing or two about torture of political enemies, but I got that mostly from my Jewish lawyer...
 
Well with Edward starting his second term with a personal scandal at home, openly supporting a dictator while he invade a country might not be a good idea. (Should have follow Clinton exemple and keep his mistress hidden until after your term is over)

Anyway the CIA work in mysterious way they probably want a guy that his manageable and can work fast because they want at least a clear leader in the region. As you can see since OBL died the price of oil skyrocketted.

I've heard that a former head of the CIA is a Texas oilman. With his connections to both the oil industry and the intelligence community, is it any wonder that the price of oil has skyrocketed?
I truly believe that by the end of the year we might be paying as much as $2.00 a gallon! And don't tell me about Europeans paying twice that much, most of them don't own a private car but rather take public transportation or use a motorscooter.
:mad:
 
Isn't 'in meditative retreat' double-speak for in prison (maybe executed)? It's my understanding that bin Ladin could have shown the Nazis a thing or two about torture of political enemies, but I got that mostly from my Jewish lawyer...

A lot of that is propaganda, both theirs and their enemies. Bin Ladin's jurists came up with the doctrine of scaring people straight - for real. That's how the Majlis justifies the use of means that put the populace in fear. So they want you to believe that they are master torturers (its also why they hold prisoners incommunicado on principle). From what ai knows, the reality of IAR prisons is much cruder than that. The guards have almost complete freedom to do to their captives as they please, beatings and rape are common, rations are short and confessions are sometimes extracted by force, but it's really not sophisticated or capital-intensive like they had in Argentina. Plus, members of the elite are exempt. That's what the whole 'meditative retreat' spiel is about. It's a bit like back when Politburo members used to 'retire for health reasons' or 'go to hospital'. I am fairely sure Aweed is alive and reasonably well, but I'm equally sure he isn't going to show his face in public again.

www.ai.org/AIR/illegal_detentions

for more info.
 
That sounds like the Israeli position, after spending the past decade and a half having to bomb covert military research bases in the Arab powers, (Osirak, Hamidiyya, etc.), many in the IDF and Mossad probably feel like it'd be a good idea to push Arabia and Iraq into war.

If they can manage it, I'd be impressed (and it would certainly be in their interest, if in nobody else's). Israel has suffered the second worst from the AIR's Islamic foreign policy, so I can see them wishing the country all the ill under the sun.
 
Oh, hell. This just in: Vice President General Naweed b. Bandar held the funeral orations, and he said - get this:

"If you believed in Osama b. Ladin, know ye that Osama b. Ladin is dead. But if you believe in God, know ye that God lives forever."

There's going to be a fucking riot in the Majlis.
 
Oh, hell. This just in: Vice President General Naweed b. Bandar held the funeral orations, and he said - get this:

"If you believed in Osama b. Ladin, know ye that Osama b. Ladin is dead. But if you believe in God, know ye that God lives forever."

There's going to be a fucking riot in the Majlis.

Well actually there is riot right now

The Iranian said they were on high alert and that there martime force was more than ready to do amphibious landing on Arabia if needed
 
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ninebucks

Banned
Well actually there is riot right now

The Iranian said they were on high alert and that there martime force was more than ready to do amphibious landing on Arabia if needed

Hmm. It would be preferable if it were the Iraqis doing this, they could at least call on some popular support. But the Iranians are only going to be able to appeal to the Shi'a minority, (and not the sheer majority (sorry)), which is only going to cause inter-sectarian violence.

Speaking of Iraq, they've become kinda crucial in this. Which ever side they support, even if its just the tiniest modicum of support, is going to end up in a much better position.
 
If a large-scale war breaks out, I really hope Iran doesn't get involved. They've always been the most Westernized and secular country in the Middle East, and I'd hate to see all that go to waste.
 
Something to consider is that the mullahs in Mecca will certainly have a major hand in the selection of the next president of the Islamic Arabian Republic (IAR). With oil prices reaching $100/barrel, it is unlikely we will see the rise of a reform candidate. Just remember how quickly they removed the Cabinet in 1998, when it was discovered that the United States was launching secret diplomatic talks in Geneva, during the Impeachment hearings. That was one "October Surprise" that hurt the White House more than anything else....
 

ninebucks

Banned
Something to consider is that the mullahs in Mecca will certainly have a major hand in the selection of the next president of the Islamic Arabian Republic (IAR). With oil prices reaching $100/barrel, it is unlikely we will see the rise of a reform candidate. Just remember how quickly they removed the Cabinet in 1998, when it was discovered that the United States was launching secret diplomatic talks in Geneva, during the Impeachment hearings. That was one "October Surprise" that hurt the White House more than anything else....

Arabs don't have mullahs.

Nupedia said:
The term is seldom used in Arabic-speaking areas, where its nearest equivalent is shaykh (implying formal Islamic training), imam (prayer leader; not to be confused with the Imams of the Shiite world), or `ālim (plural `ūlamā') (scholar; see ulema). In the Sunni world, the concept of "cleric" is of limited usefulness, as authority in the religious system is relatively decentralized.

But yes, the selection of the next head of state will largely be dictated by the religious authorities. But unlike the mullahs of Iran, who's positions are well established by a millenium of tradition and strictly defined by the constitution, the 'Ulamah of Arabia are a much more ad hoc grouping.

But then everything in Arabia is ad hoc, seeing as it is one of only two states in the world, (the other, ironically, being Israel), that doesn't have a codified constitution, the everyday activities of the state can be quite unpredictable. If the actions of the state weren't all so uniformly barbaric, you could almost call it interesting.
 
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