DB Discussion: Can the US win the Mexican-American War?

Dorozhand

Banned
It has often been observed that the US was woefully unprepared for war when in 1851 they declared hostilities with Mexico. Mexico was a united country that had just come out of the Civil War strong and with renewed purpose. The aristocrats, clergy, and centralists that had sided with the rebels were defeated, and though the nation mourned the assassination of President Farias, the work that he had done for the victory of progress and the rebuilding of infrastructure, as well as the trial by fire through which the army had gone and the generation of great generals that had been created, would live on to drive Mexico into the world as a Great Power.

This is in contrast the the United States, which was a terrible name for such a disunited polity, with cultural and economic fractures beginning to form at so many points, and an army and navy that were languishing, the US was gearing up the face itself, not the world. Not to mention the ridiculous slavers in the US south, who made half the country an oppressive, backward, unproductive hell-hole. The country had few experienced military leaders left since its last war in 1812, and its economy was also starting to fall into disarray.

The US's tactics were ill-suited to the ground they were fighting on, with the rugged mountains of California and the deserts of New Mexico and Texas providing excellent defensive potential while hindering attackers. The age-old advantage of the home ground, where the defenders might have accurate maps and knowledge of the terrain, while the attackers may be relying on out of date or erroneous knowledge provided by locals with no love for them. The US Army was as disunited as the country as a whole, as oppressed peoples who had emigrated to the US, like the Irish and Poles, flocked to Mexico's banner in droves.

All Mexico had to do to win was preserve its territorial integrity, while the US had to conquer the vastness of northern Mexico to achieve its aims, not even mentioning having to subdue Mexico proper in the south, whose marshes and swamps, hot climate and dense population gave the UK such hell in 1871.

I'm surprised that anyone, even Americans, would see any chance for the US to win. Mexico had all the winds and dragons, the outcome was nigh inevitable.
 
It has often been observed that the US was woefully unprepared for war when in 1851 they declared hostilities with Mexico. Mexico was a united country that had just come out of the Civil War strong and with renewed purpose. The aristocrats, clergy, and centralists that had sided with the rebels were defeated, and though the nation mourned the assassination of President Farias, the work that he had done for the victory of progress and the rebuilding of infrastructure, as well as the trial by fire through which the army had gone and the generation of great generals that had been created, would live on to drive Mexico into the world as a Great Power.

This is in contrast the the United States, which was a terrible name for such a disunited polity, with cultural and economic fractures beginning to form at so many points, and an army and navy that were languishing, the US was gearing up the face itself, not the world. Not to mention the ridiculous slavers in the US south, who made half the country an oppressive, backward, unproductive hell-hole. The country had few experienced military leaders left since its last war in 1812, and its economy was also starting to fall into disarray.

The US's tactics were ill-suited to the ground they were fighting on, with the rugged mountains of California and the deserts of New Mexico and Texas providing excellent defensive potential while hindering attackers. The age-old advantage of the home ground, where the defenders might have accurate maps and knowledge of the terrain, while the attackers may be relying on out of date or erroneous knowledge provided by locals with no love for them. The US Army was as disunited as the country as a whole, as oppressed peoples who had emigrated to the US, like the Irish and Poles, flocked to Mexico's banner in droves.

All Mexico had to do to win was preserve its territorial integrity, while the US had to conquer the vastness of northern Mexico to achieve its aims, not even mentioning having to subdue Mexico proper in the south, whose marshes and swamps, hot climate and dense population gave the UK such hell in 1871.

I'm surprised that anyone, even Americans, would see any chance for the US to win. Mexico had all the winds and dragons, the outcome was nigh inevitable.

It's hard to say for sure-you have to remember, William Henry Harrison, though ha had quite willing to annex eastern Texas(although the rest was left to Mexico as Tejas) and the Oregon Country, had no interest in the rest of northern Mexico, and neither did his Vice-President, Zachary Taylor. And James K. Polk, who won the election of 1848, was initially quite hesitant to fight the Mexicans, and only declared war when Mexican soldiers fired at American trappers in southern Oregon in Sept. of 1851.

OOC: TBH, I don't mean to be super-critical, but I do think it would have been helpful if you could've laid out even a general POD for us-mainly because Mexico probably wouldn't still have Texas with one at any time after 1836 or so.
 
(OOC: Seconding what caliboy said, the amount of info we have now is not enough to make it non asb. Also, the terrain in California heavily favors the Americans, probably make them almost take California)
 
The answer is really simple...

The Texians were dumb enough to "accidentally" kill Santa Anna. Yes, the man was a bastard of the highest caliber. Yes, he viciously murdered anyone who dared rebel against him. But had they simply captured the man himself and simply forced him to sign Texas' independence, tey could have saved their little fledging Republic from having the entirety of the Mexican Army round up and blast the Texian forces to kingdom come.

This seems to have given the Mexicans a new perspective as well. Santa Anna was the personification of the Latin American caudillo. He made everything on Mexican politics revolve around his person, and when he died, the country was thrown into disarray and the long, protracted civil war between liberals, conservatves, federalists and centralists erupted once again (Note: as a matter of fact... This could have been the perfect opportunity to attack Mexico. To this day, I do not understand why didn't Andrew "Indian butcher" Jackson seized the chance when he had it). Said civil was was the "climatic showdown" so to speak. And despite the death and destruction it caused, the new Federal Republic of Mexico emerged stronger than before.

Another factor in their favor was the quick settlement of California and Nuevo Mexico with new migrants. Not to mention the boost to the economy that Californian Gold provided. Clever administrations ensured that even the Anglo-American immigrants had to pay taxes from the gold they collected. All the cash that flowed into the Mexican arcs was perfect to reconstruct and modernize the outdated and disorganized Army and the practically nonexistent Navy, as well as pay their debts to foreign countries. So that, say, France for example, had no excuse to invade them anymore.

Now, let's not discredit the US Army & Navy just yet. They were just as capable, and they very nearly took over California, in no small part thanks to the Bear Flag Revolt. However, unlike people like Santa Anna, the Mexican leaders now had clear knowledge of the terrain, and how to apply guerrilla tactics to their advantage. The indians also provided great help, namely the Comanche raiding throgh the Deep South..
 
the CA gold seems to be the key to it... if the US had declared war before it was found, they might have won the war. Once the Mexicans found it though, everything changed... they went from having almost no immigration (which is why there were Americans in TX) to having the poor of Spanish/Portuguese/Italian Europe flocking into the country. These new immigrants (already happily Catholic, unlike the Americans in TX) found CA and TX much to their liking. And of course, the gold paid for a lot of good stuff, military wise. War against Mexico in 1851 is not winnable for the US. War before 1845 or so might be.
 
the CA gold seems to be the key to it... if the US had declared war before it was found, they might have won the war. Once the Mexicans found it though, everything changed... they went from having almost no immigration (which is why there were Americans in TX) to having the poor of Spanish/Portuguese/Italian Europe flocking into the country. These new immigrants (already happily Catholic, unlike the Americans in TX) found CA and TX much to their liking. And of course, the gold paid for a lot of good stuff, military wise. War against Mexico in 1851 is not winnable for the US. War before 1845 or so might be.
Exactly. And without Santa Anna and after the end of the Civil war, corruption was reduced to a considerable degree, meaning all those riches were invested in something useful, rather than wasted on overpriced parties by the elites... for the most part, at least.
 

Deleted member 9338

Exactly. And without Santa Anna and after the end of the Civil war, corruption was reduced to a considerable degree, meaning all those riches were invested in something useful, rather than wasted on overpriced parties by the elites... for the most part, at least.

This is very interesting and I look forward to following the story
 
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