Manila will be screwed as with all major cities. Cebu is also screwed. Not to mention the AFP in 2004 was at a very bad state. The PAF's F-5s have been grounded since 2002 and there's only M113s, AIFVs, V-150s, Simbas, and Scorpion light tanks. The Hueys were also aging at this period. The Navy had floating tin cans from WWII and the Cold War. Most of these were patrol vessels, patrol escort vessels, and converted minelayers. The flagship, the BRP Rajah Humabon, is no bigger than a SuperFerry. There were only two Bacolod City-class landing ships at this period (BRP Bacolod City and BRP Dagupan City), which could be used for evacuation.