Davout X Bernadotte: The Duel

While reading about Davout at Wikipedia, I found this piece:

"Perhaps his fiercest anger was directed towards Bernadotte, who failed to come to his aid at Auerstadt, though close enough to observe the smoke and hear the cannonfire. His anger was so intense that Davout requested to settle the matter with a personal duel, averted only by Napoléon's personal intervention."

So, WI that duel had happened and one of them had died? How would be the Napolenic Wars after 1806 without Bernadotte or Davout?
 
This is a Davout beats Bernadotte scenario.

Davout would suffer Napoleon's bad graces for a time; maybe he later gets sent off to the Peninsular War instead of accompanying Napoleon into Russia. Which could prove an unexpected blessing for the French; he could probably achieve more in Spain than he would in the snows of Russia.

Napoleon appoints a different officer as the King of Sweden. Possibly this officer remains loyal to Napoleon and sides with France against Russia. With Sweden onside Napoleon might choose to take St Petersberg instead of Moscow; in any case Napoleon can possibly achieve victory in Russia.

With a better showing on both fronts, it could see the Empire survive.
 
A few musings on the removal of each.

To be honest, although Davout was almost certainly the better general, I dont see the course of the war being sigificantly altered for a while, because Napoleon really never took advantage of his abilities during the later years of the empire as he did earlier in his campaigns. However, his absence will be felt. Wagram may very well not be as decisive without Davout reulsing the Austrian left. OTOH, Lannes may survive by virtue of butterflies, which will help Napoleon out later on. Going on to Russia, Davout will be missed, but perhaps not critically. A few more battles may be less decisive or not french victories, but I doubt that it changes the actual dynamics of the campaign much, although given his capable performance during both the invasion and withdrawal his absence will hurt. Hamburg will fall without him being present, as that situation was pretty much doomed when he arrived.

As for Bernadotte's death, though he was never Davout's equal as a general, this is in some ways the more interesting POD. Removing him will have some effect on Wagram, with the most noticable being that he is never ordered off the field in disgrace. But things get interesting in 1810, when he is elected the heir to the Swedish throne. After that, he was in large part responsible for the strategy which defeated France in the war of the Sixth coalition, and played a minor role in bringing about that actual defeat. The question is, who takes his place, and what does his removal mean for the campaign against napoleon?

Edit: This could make a pretty good timeline, were somebody to flesh it out.

edit2: Any thoughts on the impact this has on the custom of dueling, in France or in general?
 
Napoleon appoints a different officer as the King of Sweden.

Napoleon never appointed Bernadotte to the Swedish throne. It's true that the Swedes elected him to be a pro-French candidate to appease Bonaparte, but it wasn't Napoleon's initiative. Indeed, when Napoleon was told about it, he thought the idea ludicrous, and I believe Bernadotte then accepted the offer partly through his growing discontent at Napoleon's regime.

The Bernadotte placement as heir to the Swedish throne was largely narrowed down because of Bernadotte's kind treatment of Swedish soldiers, though, and because the army wanted a soldier-King. Given that, and the records of other Marshals, I think you're likely to find that any other French candidate fails to meet the country's expectations and they reject the appointment with public unrest. This then leaves the Swedish elite with two options - they find someone else with French connections but of a more suitable disposition to offer the throne to, or they give up and offer the throne to someone else entirely. Who they would elect...I'm really not sure.
 
Napoleon never appointed Bernadotte to the Swedish throne. It's true that the Swedes elected him to be a pro-French candidate to appease Bonaparte, but it wasn't Napoleon's initiative. Indeed, when Napoleon was told about it, he thought the idea ludicrous, and I believe Bernadotte then accepted the offer partly through his growing discontent at Napoleon's regime.

The Bernadotte placement as heir to the Swedish throne was largely narrowed down because of Bernadotte's kind treatment of Swedish soldiers, though, and because the army wanted a soldier-King. Given that, and the records of other Marshals, I think you're likely to find that any other French candidate fails to meet the country's expectations and they reject the appointment with public unrest. This then leaves the Swedish elite with two options - they find someone else with French connections but of a more suitable disposition to offer the throne to, or they give up and offer the throne to someone else entirely. Who they would elect...I'm really not sure.


Maybe they take a look at the new nation of USA and make Sweden a republic.

There is also the possiblity that the deposed king Gustav IVs son Gustav Gustavsson is made king and that the goverment "forgets" that the Gustav IV family was proclaimed persona non grata
 
IIRC there was significant resistence to the idea of Bernadotte as crown prince in Sweden, and the issue was basically decided by the spontaneous actions of one nobleman.

my question is: were there any other viable candidates (aside from Gustav Gustavsson)? Or is it possible that another french general winds up playing a similar role to Bernadotte in the Pomeranian war, and then gets elected Crown Prince (going by OTL's history, perhaps Brune?)?

Finally, Napoleon was at one point (1808 I believe) preparing to invade Sweden in alliance with Denmark, but a mix of timing (Bernadotte's, to be precise) and the Royal navy caused him to reconsider and abandon those plans. However, is it possible that ITTL he attempts the invasion (butterflies and/or a different commander to replace Bernadotte - Davout would be an ironic candidate)?
 
Maybe they take a look at the new nation of USA and make Sweden a republic.

Maybe...maybe...but probably not I'd have to say. Republics weren't really that popular in most of Europe, or at least weren't believed to be lasting, viable governments except in the small statelets i.e. San Marino. Case in point, the French Republic lasted about 15 years until Bonaparte crowned himself, and even then it was quite public knowledge in Europe that the successive governments of Revolutionary France were really not representative or populist. While by 1848 social unrest makes dethroning Kings more popular (and even then, popular monarchies - kings ruling for and to an extent with the agreement of the population - are still arguably of equal favour to full republics. I doubt that a country with quite a responsible and renowned reputation for strong Kings would suddenly want to ditch the monarchy. Rather, what they did was pressed for a popular candidate for the throne. In this case the army wanted a soldier King, and they got him.

IIRC there was significant resistence to the idea of Bernadotte as crown prince in Sweden, and the issue was basically decided by the spontaneous actions of one nobleman.

my question is: were there any other viable candidates (aside from Gustav Gustavsson)? Or is it possible that another french general winds up playing a similar role to Bernadotte in the Pomeranian war, and then gets elected Crown Prince (going by OTL's history, perhaps Brune?)?

Half there. The people wanted someone popular - the army were especially vocal on this point, as said above. Bernadotte was unpopular for being French at first, I believe, but proved himself a man of the people and within months had swayed the population in his favour sufficiently that the country's elite, who were still less-enamoured with the choice, refusing to crown him became inviable. Yes, Bernadotte was offered the throne by one noble, but he didn't so much do so against the will of the people, he did so to harness the feelings of the army; insodoing he was the catalyst for Bernadotte becoming the popular choice.

In answer to your question, I think that, given the way in which the crown was offered, a French Marshal is still likely to be the only candidate unless a stunner of a diplomat and general unveils himself in Sweden. As for which Marshal, though...Bernadotte made himself popular by his actions and his notably lenient treatment of Swedish prisoners. Not all the French Marshals beside him were ruthless and brutal, but I doubt that any other Marshal in the same place could become so popular as Bernadotte did, thus I suspect that any other choice wouldn't be popular enough to last. Now, a French invasion would provide a more reasonable excuse for a different French Marshal on the throne, except that I can see a big country like Sweden instead falling into the Bonaparte family tree. Perhaps another series of swaps as had happened before? Joseph to Sweden, Murat to Spain, Jerome to Naples? Not likely, but...maybe.
 
I don't know how likely is it, but if the Swedish decide for a French (or even a Bonaparte) king, what about Louis Bonaparte? He was already king of Holland, and was considered a good monarch, but was deposed by his own brother. Maybe he could even turn against Napoleon later, as Bernadotte did IOTL. Could it happen?
 
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