POD courtesy of the Chinese History course I'm taking this semester...
Alright, for those of you who don't know, shortly before outbreak of the First Opium War (1839-1842) a serious debate emerged in the Qing Court regarding the legalization of Opium. It was hoped that by legalizing Opium it could then be taxed, hopefully providing a large ammount of income to the flagging economy of the Qing Empire. It was also hoped that by legitimizing the Opium Trade it would lead to a barter system developing between Opium and Tea thereby halting the silver drain that was devastating the Qing economy. Finally a legal Opium trade would also lead to the growth of the Chinese domestic Opium industry lessening it's reliance on foreign trade (a very bad thing in the eyes of the Qing and most 19th century Chinese).
Now In OTL The Qing Emperor at the time the Daoguang Emperor seriously considered legalizing the Opium Trade, however he was dissuaded at the last minute by a group of powerful conservative Han Chinese officials. He then, instead of legalizing the Opium Trade, opted for a complete ban. He appointed Lin Zexu to head up the crackdown on the trade setting in motion the events that led to OTL's Opium War...
But what if he hadn't? Though there would certainly be societal effects from legalizing opium that's not what I want to go into.
Let's say the Emperor decides to legalize the Opium Trade. Would this be enough to dissuade the Europeans from embarking on an Opium War? Or would the British find an excuse to declare war anyway? Personally I think that the British would end up going to war anyways perhaps over a minor detail regarding the Opium trade.
One thought I had on the matter was that the Qing legalization of the Opium trade would strike a major blow to their legitimacy. No longer would they be "More Chinese than the Chinese". This coupled with the opening of China could very well lead to the collapse of the Qing Dynasty.
Thoughts?