Danke Schön, Freiherr von der Goltz

[Martinus Paduei]

Back after a long absence. This is an idea that has been simmering for a while. The POD is fairly pedestrian, with von Schliefen catching influenza, and dying late in 1901. The Kaiser makes von der Goltz head of the General Staff, rather than von Moltke. German military planning for the contingency of a two front war develops differently, with planning now turning toward first holding the line against France in the west while committing the bulk of forces against Russia.

The rest of world history remains much the same until July 27, 1914, when the heir to the Austrian throne is wounded in an assassination attempt in Sarajevo...

As a teaser, I will for now just put out a series of maps covering the twentieth century, and leave people to comment on what might have happened. I'll fill you all in later. Speaking of maps, a tip of the cap to the board's Patron Saint of Base Maps, whose efforts I truly appreciate.

Here is November 2, 1918:

 

[LordKalvan]

UK stays neutral, since Belgium neutrality is not violated. After Russia's defeat, they take over Northern Iran (which was under Russian protectorate after the agreement of 1908).
Italy enters the war with Germany and A-H against France, Russia and Serbia (possibly Germany forces A-H to cede Istria, Trieste and Trento to Italy). The Ottomans stay out of the war, same as Bulgaria and Greece. Japan gets in on the CP side, and operates in the Pacific theatre only.

The Central Powers win (easily? after a struggle?) and impose a harsh peace on the defeated: Serbia is conglobated into A-H (might not be the smartest move in the world, but...); Russia looses the Baltic duchies, Finland, Poland, and a good chunk of the Far East (and as mentioned before is expelled from Iran by UK); France looses Savoy, Nice and Corsica to Italy and all of her colonial empire (except only Algeria).
Most of the ex-French colonies go to Germany (same as the Baltic duchies), with Italy grabbing Tunisia, Madagascar and Djibouti and Japan being awarded Indochina (plus Manchuria and what Russia looses in the Far East). A Poland of some stripe is created (under an Habsburg king I would assume).

The peace treaty is quite harsh (even if not too harsh in terms of core Russian or French lands taken away), and this makes me think that the war is not a walk-over. Still I don't think it can last 4 years.

On second thoughts, both Romania and Bulgaria appear to have been on the CP side: Romania gains Bessarabia from Russia, and Bulgaria gets Macedonia.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

I'll remain true to my word, and not comment substantively. Just a couple of clarifications on the map. Italy is now in possession of just the southernmost portion of Tyrolia, and part of Istria, though not Trieste itself. Tough to see given the scale of the map. Madagascar is actually Austro-Hungarian, not Italian. The colors are rather close--Perhaps I should adjust them in future maps.

 

[Onkel Willie]

You're a little late. I've started a TL on almost the exact same premise.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

You're a little late. I've started a TL on almost the exact same premise.

Better late than never.

It should be interesting for our readers to see the similarities and differences between the two TLs.


P.S. I will try to refrain from reading yours in detail, so as to minimize 'contamination', though I do have things pretty much worked out through the year 2000 already.

 

[Jimbrock]

UK stays neutral, since Belgium neutrality is not violated. [snip]

The peace treaty is quite harsh (even if not too harsh in terms of core Russian or French lands taken away), and this makes me think that the war is not a walk-over. Still I don't think it can last 4 years.

On second thoughts, both Romania and Bulgaria appear to have been on the CP side: Romania gains Bessarabia from Russia, and Bulgaria gets Macedonia.

And, of course for CP victory threads, Italy is beaten up and kicked into a corner. Unsuprisingly, they get nothing except Corsica, Savoy and Nice (which are/were italian anyway...) Tunisia and Dibjouti.
Suprisingly though, the get German south Tyrol, and not even Italian Trieste and Istria. Excpect a mutilated victory, possibly even bigger than OTL.
The massive ammount of Slavs now in AH are not going to take it lightly either. If its such a long war, AH would've fallen apart by now.

 

[LordKalvan]

I'll remain true to my word, and not comment substantively. Just a couple of clarifications on the map. Italy is now in possession of just the southernmost portion of Tyrolia, and part of Istria, though not Trieste itself. Tough to see given the scale of the map. Madagascar is actually Austro-Hungarian, not Italian. The colors are rather close--Perhaps I should adjust them in future maps.

Adjust the colors, please! They are truly too close.
I have no problem with the northern Italian border: Trento and hinterland becomes Italian, and Bozen remains Austrian.

I do believe that the eastern border is not good enough for Italy to enter the war: no Trieste, no Dalmatia and just a portion of Istria without territorial contiguity?

Quite surprising A-H getting Madagascar. To do what? they have no stakes and no bases in Africa (and a navy which is barely good enough to contest the Adriatic) and they ask for Madagascar???

And, of course for CP victory threads, Italy is beaten up and kicked into a corner. Unsuprisingly, they get nothing except Corsica, Savoy and Nice (which are/were italian anyway...) Tunisia and Dibjouti.
Suprisingly though, the get German south Tyrol, and not even Italian Trieste and Istria. Excpect a mutilated victory, possibly even bigger than OTL.
The massive ammount of Slavs now in AH are not going to take it lightly either. If its such a long war, AH would've fallen apart by now.

As Martinus said, Italy does not get both Trento and Bozen, but just the former (which might be a reasonable ethnic split). Trieste has an Italian majority (and the same goes for coastal Istria) but apparently Italy does not get Trieste even: IMHO, this is quite short of what Italy asked IOTL to enter the war on CP side.

A-H gets a huge lot of Slavs plus - possibly - a protectorate on the newly created Poland (which is inclusive of a good strip of Ukraine, btw): how can they manage the huge changes in ethnic balance? Not even a tripartite crown would be enough (assuming that Hungarians agree to it, btw).

I do agree that a long war might be too much for A-H.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

LordKalvan, I will do something about the color in succeeding maps. As to Italian territory, the portion of Istria owned by Italy is contiguous with the rest of the country.

Jimbrock, regarding new Italian territory in mainland France, it is hard to see due to the scale, but it includes somewhat more than Savoy and Nice.

 

[Jimbrock]

Jimbrock, regarding new Italian territory in mainland France, it is hard to see due to the scale, but it includes somewhat more than Savoy and Nice.

No problem, Italy getting squat is quite probable, I guess. Just expect a Mutilated victory movement bigger than OTL and probably a more succesful one.

 

[LordKalvan]

LordKalvan, I will do something about the color in succeeding maps. As to Italian territory, the portion of Istria owned by Italy is contiguous with the rest of the country.

In which case trieste has no contiguity with AH

Btw, is there a funny Sweden at the top or it's just me?

 

[LordKalvan]

No problem, Italy getting squat is quite probable, I guess. Just expect a Mutilated victory movement bigger than OTL and probably a more succesful one.

Because this time they have been in the war for an extra 9 months, and the results are quite poor all the same

I just pray that ITTL Benito remains a socialist and does not end up as duce

 

[Martinus Paduei]

In which case trieste has no contiguity with AH

Btw, is there a funny Sweden at the top or it's just me?

I want to avoid putting out a bunch of small maps, but trust me, Italy has part of Istria, and Trieste is still contiguous with Austria-Hungary.

On Sweden, no, its not just you. There are also a few other changes from OTL that no one else has caught/mentioned.

 

[LordKalvan]

I want to avoid putting out a bunch of small maps, but trust me, Italy has part of Istria, and Trieste is still contiguous with Austria-Hungary.

Sorry, I am an unbeliever

 

[Jimbrock]

Because this time they have been in the war for an extra 9 months, and the results are quite poor all the same

I just pray that ITTL Benito remains a socialist and does not end up as duce

Our friend Mussie quit socialism in the war or shortly before AFAIK, so he is already a fascist at this point. With the bigger Mutilated Victory scenario, he will probably become Duce sooner.

I want to avoid putting out a bunch of small maps, but trust me, Italy has part of Istria, and Trieste is still contiguous with Austria-Hungary.

Unless Italy has a little panhandle manouvered into Istria without touching the coast, which would be completely impractical, then they cannot BOTH be contiguous. Im afraid you need to make a map of the area to clarify Italy's gains.

 

[LordKalvan]

Our friend Mussie quit socialism in the war or shortly before AFAIK, so he is already a fascist at this point. With the bigger Mutilated Victory scenario, he will probably become Duce sooner.

I was thinking he might get the Spanish flu and give up the ghost
More seriously, this time the war is on the side of the CPs, and there might be less fuelled-up irredentists; and Benito might be opposed to a war on A-H side.
Not to mention that I would - for once - see a TL where the victory is not mutilated, and Italy does not end up fascist (which is not mandatory, whatever 99% of the people here think)

Unless Italy has a little panhandle manouvered into Istria without touching the coast, which would be completely impractical, then they cannot BOTH be contiguous. Im afraid you need to make a map of the area to clarify Italy's gains.

I tried telling Martinus, but no luck: there must be at least a road and a railway connecting Trieste to A-H, and they would deny contiguity between Friuli and any part of Istria. It's exactly the same problem that Danzig had with the corridor.

 

[Northstar]

Germany has gained a few British possessions in Africa I think. Maybe Canada wasn't given independence (I don't know the dates OTL) ITTL, it's pink on the map and therefore Britain had to put down some rebellions or something there leaving less resources for Africa leading to them giving bits to Germany.

All of Afghanistan is British too. Is that different to OTL?

Portuges lands in Africa, has the border altered slightly?

Morocco, again, has the border altered slightly?

Germany has gained French South America (German Guiana) and Calais.

Has the Ottoman Empire expanded slightly into the centre of the Arabian peninsula?

Has America established protectorates over most of the Caribbean ITTL or is it the same as OTL?

Are the South American borders all the same as OTL?

Isn't Egypt's border further west than IOTL?

 

[Jimbrock]

I was thinking he might get the Spanish flu and give up the ghost

Well, butterflies can do anything, but someone else will definately pick up the reigns of Fascism (Balbo, anyone?)

More seriously, this time the war is on the side of the CPs, and there might be less fuelled-up irredentists; and Benito might be opposed to a war on A-H side.

He was OTL, which as I said before would make Italys scenario be just the same as OTL, but mirrored and with extra bitterness.

Not to mention that I would - for once - see a TL where the victory is not mutilated, and Italy does not end up fascist (which is not mandatory, whatever 99% of the people here think)

What? Non-Mutilated Victory? Didnt you read my previous posts? This victory is MUCH more Mutilated as not only is Italy's ambitions desregarded, now even ITALIAN territory is not included in their gains. Hell yeah, this is definately Italy's 'stab in the back'

 

[DrakonFin]

On Sweden, no, its not just you. There are also a few other changes from OTL that no one else has caught/mentioned.

I have to give it to you: Finland is quite horribly mutilated, what with Sweden taking away the west/south-west coast (and, thus, some of the absolutely most developed and prosperous parts of the Grand Duchy). The Finno-Karelian state you have cobbled together (as a buffer against Russia, I presume) will no doubt turn out quite... interesting, if not downright strange.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Unless Italy has a little panhandle manouvered into Istria without touching the coast, which would be completely impractical, then they cannot BOTH be contiguous. Im afraid you need to make a map of the area to clarify Italy's gains.

Completely impractical, and exactly the situation...for the moment.

 

[Martinus Paduei]

Germany has gained a few British possessions in Africa I think. Maybe Canada wasn't given independence (I don't know the dates OTL) ITTL, it's pink on the map and therefore Britain had to put down some rebellions or something there leaving less resources for Africa leading to them giving bits to Germany.

No change from OTL.

All of Afghanistan is British too. Is that different to OTL?

Yes.

Portuges lands in Africa, has the border altered slightly?

No.

Morocco, again, has the border altered slightly?

More than slightly, I'd say.

Germany has gained French South America (German Guiana) and Calais.

Yes.

Has the Ottoman Empire expanded slightly into the centre of the Arabian peninsula?

No, but there are Turkish additional lands in and around the Caucasus, western Persia, and the Crimea.

Has America established protectorates over most of the Caribbean ITTL or is it the same as OTL?

This was part of the prime era of American intervention in the Banana Republics, but if there are errors in the base map, I haven't fixed them. Consider it same as OTL.

Are the South American borders all the same as OTL?

Yes.

Isn't Egypt's border further west than IOTL?

No.