D-Day WI

Perkeo

Banned
It might mean that Berlin get lit up in August of 1945 by an atomic bomb.
Don't know if they'll do that. They need someone sign the Instrument of Surrender, but I could see them nuking Hamburg, Nuremburg, or Munich.
Of course they cannot bomb Berlin since they need someone sign the Instrument of Surrender. They didn't bomb Tokyo, did they? They can't even bomb Berlin if they are absolutely sure that Hitler isn't in town, since the signatory of the Instrument of Surrender won't be Hitler anyway and killing anyone who might lanch a coup is couterproductive.

AFAIK the target was to be Mannheim/Ludwigshafen.
 
Well, kind of. I figured there should be something today in honor of D-Day, so here goes.

What if Rommel got what he wanted in France and all the Panzer forces were put close to the coast and the invasion beaches?

My two-cents: The Germans still think the attack will be at Calais, but some tanks would be close to Normandy to do some serious damage. I don't think the Germans could win at this point, but they could make it bloodier. So what do you guys think would happen?

P.S. And yes, I realize Rommel is over-hyped.

A serious question is what's going to be left of, say, 12thSSPz, when they actually make it to the beachhead? As noted above, they can't actually be sunning themselves on the beach - they'll be a ways inland. Close enough to drive to the beach within several hours, but not ON it.

Realistically, they won't be able to start moving until dawn. Night movement is harder, and they'd wind up pushing through groups of paras. I don't know about the Brits, but most of the US paras had an AT mine and a gammon bomb each; not enough to kill a tank, but enough to break a track or knock out a halftrack or truck.

OK, so our panzer division is alerted when the paras land, ordered to be ready to move out at dawn, and starts rolling towards the beaches. Due to a combination of luck and good strategic insight they head straight for Omaha. The paras are much less of a threat during the day - AT mines will be easier to spot (the paras won't have time to bury them and hide the evidence) for example. Still, there will be some losses.

And the paras will call in their contact.

There were thousands of aircraft flying top cover for the invasion waiting for exactly this kind of target. The German columns are going to come under vicious air attack. In the gaps, they'll learn that while their tanks are much better than US tanks, a 14" shell can flip one over like a toy car. Each attack not only causes losses, it inevitably slows the columns as truck-mounted troops (3/4 of the infantry even in a Panzer division were truck-mounted) bail out and wrecks have to be pushed out of the way.

So how much actually makes it to be beach head, and what sort of cohesion do they still have?

There are a lot of variables, but my guess is the most likely answer is "not enough to matter by the time they make it there." By dusk on June 6th the landings were far more secure and heavy equipment was arriving. Follow up echelons were landing as formed units, not scattered reinforced platoons. The Panzer columns will be exhausted from hours of running fighting, their command nets will be full of holes, and they'll have lost much of their strength.
 
Some time ago on a forum at a different site http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=146553&p=1270798, I suggested that it was just possible for the Luftwaffe to have obtained convincing evidence that the D-day attack would be directed against Normandy rather than the Pas de Calais and to have given the German Army and Navy about 48 hours warning of the timing. My idea was the use of preproduction Me 262s for reconnaissance in early June 1944 and an unreasonable amount of German luck in what the aircraft observed. I also assumed that the Germans reacted quickly to the new information, moving reserves to Normandy and mining the Bay of the Seine using pressure mines.
 
A serious question is what's going to be left of, say, 12thSSPz, when they actually make it to the beachhead? As noted above, they can't actually be sunning themselves on the beach - they'll be a ways inland. Close enough to drive to the beach within several hours, but not ON it.

Realistically, they won't be able to start moving until dawn. Night movement is harder, and they'd wind up pushing through groups of paras. I don't know about the Brits, but most of the US paras had an AT mine and a gammon bomb each; not enough to kill a tank, but enough to break a track or knock out a halftrack or truck.

OK, so our panzer division is alerted when the paras land, ordered to be ready to move out at dawn, and starts rolling towards the beaches. Due to a combination of luck and good strategic insight they head straight for Omaha. The paras are much less of a threat during the day - AT mines will be easier to spot (the paras won't have time to bury them and hide the evidence) for example. Still, there will be some losses.

And the paras will call in their contact.

There were thousands of aircraft flying top cover for the invasion waiting for exactly this kind of target. The German columns are going to come under vicious air attack. In the gaps, they'll learn that while their tanks are much better than US tanks, a 14" shell can flip one over like a toy car. Each attack not only causes losses, it inevitably slows the columns as truck-mounted troops (3/4 of the infantry even in a Panzer division were truck-mounted) bail out and wrecks have to be pushed out of the way.

So how much actually makes it to be beach head, and what sort of cohesion do they still have?

There are a lot of variables, but my guess is the most likely answer is "not enough to matter by the time they make it there." By dusk on June 6th the landings were far more secure and heavy equipment was arriving. Follow up echelons were landing as formed units, not scattered reinforced platoons. The Panzer columns will be exhausted from hours of running fighting, their command nets will be full of holes, and they'll have lost much of their strength.


Gridley,

Rommel wasn't looking to have the entire division(s) in one place behind the beaches in parade ground order.

His intention was to penny packet the armored divisions out so he could have quick reaction forces VERY close (less than 10 miles from the beaches for sure)... so its possible that a formation like 12th ss panzer or 21st panzer etc; might have had like a reinforced battalion behind each threatened beach... sending them in smaller groups reduces the size of their assembly areas and makes them a less conspicious target for air attacks (the movement to the front was supposed to be at night per Rommel's orders)

The morning of June 6 is where their presence would be felt... the sky was somewhat overcast and the battle situation behind the lines where the armored battle groups would be engaging the paras was heavily confused (lots of senior officers where dead or missing) so its possible the tanks could inflict a lot of damage on the scattered airborne troops that day; the beaches themselves would be ok because the tanks would end up being tied up fighting the parachutists and would not be able to advance towards the beaches in good order (after even a few hours there are enough forces on shore that naval fire support missions can be organized)... Omaha would be the only one at risk... if like a reinforced tank company or something made it into gun range of the beaches during the time when Omaha was completely out of control and without cohearant command its possible they could have been pushed back (not a real issue overall though, because the americans would just funnel all their reinforcements through utah anyway)

I only suggest Omaha was vulnerable because it took a beating even with massive naval support (including 12 us destroyers shooting up german gun positions at point blank range) if a few tanks, and self propelled guns take cover behind the bunker lines or sea walls (ie reverse slope) and begin shelling the crap out of the troops landing its possible that their foothold might give in bradley's words "Omaha was chaos"

ultra high losses (even more than otl) in the airborne divisions might butterfly away market garden
 
Gridley,

Rommel wasn't looking to have the entire division(s) in one place behind the beaches in parade ground order.

His intention was to penny packet the armored divisions out so he could have quick reaction forces VERY close (less than 10 miles from the beaches for sure)... so its possible that a formation like 12th ss panzer or 21st panzer etc; might have had like a reinforced battalion behind each threatened beach... sending them in smaller groups reduces the size of their assembly areas and makes them a less conspicious target for air attacks (the movement to the front was supposed to be at night per Rommel's orders)

If they're that close and dispersed then they'll never form - the paras will drop in among them and prevent any cohesive action.

As I noted, if they do move at night they'll be running over para-laid AT mines and having gammon bombs tossed at them from the hedges. Every thrown track even two miles from the beach is as good as a kill.

And how do they know where to advance to? The Germans didn't have enough armor in France to put a cross-attached armored/mechanized battalion behind every beach. Remember even a panzer division had TWO tank battalions. A PzGrenadier division had one. Each mobile division had ONE armored infantry battalion - all the rest were in trucks. Trucks beat walking, but you don't dare use them to bring your men all the way forward and they'd be horribly vulnerable on the approach march to the aforementioned paras.
 
If they're that close and dispersed then they'll never form - the paras will drop in among them and prevent any cohesive action.

As I noted, if they do move at night they'll be running over para-laid AT mines and having gammon bombs tossed at them from the hedges. Every thrown track even two miles from the beach is as good as a kill.

And how do they know where to advance to? The Germans didn't have enough armor in France to put a cross-attached armored/mechanized battalion behind every beach. Remember even a panzer division had TWO tank battalions. A PzGrenadier division had one. Each mobile division had ONE armored infantry battalion - all the rest were in trucks. Trucks beat walking, but you don't dare use them to bring your men all the way forward and they'd be horribly vulnerable on the approach march to the aforementioned paras.

Rommel's intention wasn't to particularly coordinate them...basically if the forces in place didn't hurl the landing right back into the sea, the battle would be lost

He had keyed in on the pas de calais, normandy and the contein as the potential northern landing sites; there where 6 panzer divisions north of the loire... thats 50-60 (counting the independant battalions) battalions of mobile troops available

from cherbourg to antwerp is a tiny bit under 300 miles on the road... if rommel has 60 battalions of mobile troops; thats 1 every 5 miles

the d-day landing frontage (counting the airborne divisions) was 50ish miles... so thats 10 battalions in position to immediately contest with 4 more within 10 miles of the fighting (assuming Rommel spaces his forces evenly)

the night movement was supposed to be from their assembly areas inland to rommels new near the beach staging areas to avoid losses to air attack during the march... ideally (from the german perspective) the battalions in place would lock the paratroopers in place and exhaust them so that the other mobile formations could come into the area without heavy risk of ambush
 
The most probable cities to be nuked in Germany would have been Bremen and Hamburg, in this order. They are big enough to show the potential of the weapon, but you still have an escalation scenario left. They are also close to the sea so there's a rather small risk that the device falls into enemy hands if the bomber carrying it is shot down.

Had the Normandy Landings been a total failure (i.e. a retreat would have become necessary / inevitable), the Italian front and the Landings in southern France would have become much more important. But under most imaginable scenarios a complete failure of Operation Overlord is rather improbable. The best the Wehrmacht could realistically hope for was to pin down the Allies in Normandy for some more weeks rather than months. But in the end allied air and numerical superiority would still have won the day.
 
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there where 6 panzer divisions north of the loire... thats 50-60 (counting the independant battalions) battalions of mobile troops available

Wha? Must have been a lot more independent battalions then I thought - each PzDiv has FOUR armored/mechanized battalions even if you count the Recon battalion - all the rest are truck-mounted. Trucks are great, but they just move the infantry around faster. If they're going to be right behind the beach anyway, might as well be ON it and dug in.
 
Wha? Must have been a lot more independent battalions then I thought - each PzDiv has FOUR armored/mechanized battalions even if you count the Recon battalion - all the rest are truck-mounted. Trucks are great, but they just move the infantry around faster. If they're going to be right behind the beach anyway, might as well be ON it and dug in.
I meant all battalions of mobile troops not just the panzer/half track ones:p

the mobile guys can't be on the beach, putting them a bit back is vital to make sure they get into the fight wherever it is since there are not enough of them... 5 miles per battalion by definition means they have to be back a bit; although to their credit they only have to advance a small distance before they can lay mortar fire on the landing areas

keep in mind the atlantic wall guys (for the most part) where ill equipped static divisions whereas the infantry of the panzer divisions (even if just truck bound) where mostly troops who had seen a lot of action and had a full complement of equipment (particularly in machine guns, mortars and anti tank rockets) and well... they where ethnically german and could be depended on for tough life or death battles as opposed to regiments of soviet traitors or half trained LW personel

so that is 6 mobile divisions 9ish battalions a piece, plus the independent battalions and parachute regiments i figure 60 between antwerp and cherbourg
 
I meant all battalions of mobile troops not just the panzer/half track ones:p

so that is 6 mobile divisions 9ish battalions a piece, plus the independent battalions and parachute regiments i figure 60 between antwerp and cherbourg

Sorry, your math is still wrong. A 1944 PzDiv had one recon battalion, two tank battalions, one armored infantry battalion, and three motorized infantry battalions. Seven battalions, and at that I'm being generous by including the recon battalion. And again, if truck-mounted infantry try to advance to the beach they'll be sitting ducks for para ambushes, especially at night.
 
Sorry, your math is still wrong. A 1944 PzDiv had one recon battalion, two tank battalions, one armored infantry battalion, and three motorized infantry battalions. Seven battalions, and at that I'm being generous by including the recon battalion. And again, if truck-mounted infantry try to advance to the beach they'll be sitting ducks for para ambushes, especially at night.

your not including their engineer, anti tank, anti aircraft and artillery forces

they don't have to advance very far... the common 8cm mortar (which the germans where highly lethal in the employment of) had a range of about a mile and a half, so you are talking about them advancing less than 2 miles to get in mortar range of the beach head

also the paratroopers where HIGHLY dispersed, a disciplined panzergrenadier infantry battalion wouldn't have much difficulty taking out or bypassing small (squad or less for the most part) detachments of paratroopers in the chaos of the early morning hours of June 6

of course though, once day light breaks, the infantry men of the panzer divisions would get pinpointed by the paras (maybe air recon depending on visability) and they would get plastered by air strikes and naval gun fire)
 
Charles De Gaulle would have gone into a blinding rage. France's relations with the rest of the world would have been much worse after such a thing.


After the first invasion to liberate France is a bloody failure the French will have to make though decisions as well. And if the other Allies want to do it they will
 
After the first invasion to liberate France is a bloody failure the French will have to make though decisions as well. And if the other Allies want to do it they will

Pretty much. The British and Americans didn't think the French were that relevant by 1944 (they let them fight for political reasons). Besides, nuking a single French town or stretch of countryside seems like an acceptable trade-off for avoiding total Soviet takeover (and the Soviets could well have been on the Rhine by June/July 1945).
 
Pretty much. The British and Americans didn't think the French were that relevant by 1944 (they let them fight for political reasons). Besides, nuking a single French town or stretch of countryside seems like an acceptable trade-off for avoiding total Soviet takeover (and the Soviets could well have been on the Rhine by June/July 1945).
That would pretty mutch put France in soviet side after the war...
 
I think there is a very limited range of opportunity for the Germans to cause D-Day to end in disaster. Only Omaha Beach offers them this opportunity. The other beach heads made signficant headway. If the Germans attack there, the Allies could fight back effectively.

I think we can assume not all German reinforcements will be sent to Omaha, but along the entire front. While they can cause casaulties at Utah, Gold, Juno, and Sword, they will not be stopping the invasion there. They aren't going to know that Omaha is the critical spot for some time, and there will be no coordinated resistance. Rommel is still not on the battlefield.

And even at Omaha, the window is very narrow. The first troops land on the beaches there at 6:30 AM. By 10:00 AM, they are able to breach the defences and begin moving off the beach. This is the critical area of time, and I don't think German armor can affect it decisively. Allied air interdiction, paratrooper fighting, and naval gunfire is going to slow down units specifically approaching Omaha. As explained earlier, I don't think the armor approaching any other beach will have any decisive impact.

Then from 10 on, the Americans are slowly moving inland. By 1-2 PM, they are advancing and the beach is able to bring in real reinforcements. It is around this time that the German 352nd Infantry wrongly reports they have pushed the US back into the sea. By 4 PM, there is American armor arriving. Any window of opportunity has been loss at this time. Fighting ends at nightfall, and by the next day there are 9 Allied divisions ashore. Perhaps a little bit smaller beachhead, but enough that the landings are successful.

The casualties will increase on both sides, but it is very debateable whether it means the invasion must fail. It is possible it might, but I still give the Allies better than a 50/50 shot.

There will be a more difficult push in the next several days, but the Germans will suffer heavily as well.
 
AFAIK there were very few paratroopers dropped behind Omaha, I know the drops were dispersed, but I've never read anything suggesting that off target US paratroopers made any contribution to the movement off Omaha in OTL.

So in this scenario I can't see US paratroopers blunting any counterattack on Omaha before it reaches the US ground forces.

Utah is a different matter. Clearly paratroop casualties are going to be a lot heavier though.
 
Agree with you I believe even the others europeans allies would not like that and might be pushed in soviet side by this.

Oh please! The Allies use a 15kt bomb to destroy German defences in Normandy, about the equvalent of the bomb load dropped during Operation Cobra, and the "european allies" (what European allies? Belgium? Norway?) are suddenly going to go running to the Soviets? And the French who suffered something approaching 20,000 civilian dead during the OTL Normandy campaign are going to "go into a blinding rage"? /facepalm
 
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