D-Day One Month Earlier, bad odds?

To make this happen, the major obstacles are weather and landing craft. Anything else?

How cooperative was the weather in May?

To make up for fewer landing craft, can the Allies land at just 4 beaches, excluding Utah, the westernmost beach?

Without Utah, where would the 101st parachute into then?

How much worse are the percentages for D-Day being successful?

Assuming the Allies are able to hold and start to reinforce; is the benefit of an extra month of campaign weather cancelled out by the costs of a slower build up and thus a likely slower breakout from Normandy?
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
You need ALL five beaches. Utah was critical.

All that really stopped May was the weather. Good Weather and off they go.
 
I'd expect the campaign to go a little better; no huge storm to wreck the US mulberry, which means more supplies and equipment (especially service units) get ashore in time to support the dash across France.

I'd have to check, but wasn't the regular German division at Omaha a recent arrival, relieving a static division? If they arrived late enough Omaha might be easier.

As CalBear noted, there was a fully mature plan ready to be executed in May. A few details changed, of course, but any plan that hasn't been executed is virtually guaranteed to evolve.
 
I believe the 352? ( i think thats the unit; will double check Alexander's book when I get home) infantry division was in position since Marchish so Omaha still runs in to German regulars

Going in may costs the allies two crucial advantages (probably not decisive but maybe higher body count)

1. Rommel is not in Germany for his wife's birthday but is instead at his headquarters to manage and interpret the battle immediately; and probably wipe his ass with Hitler's divisional allocations and take command of all panzer reserves immediately instead of wasting half a day getting proper authority plus the staff will be more effecient with their commander on the scene

2. The atlantic wall forces in otl on 6/6 where on low alert because the weather was crappy and this was a boon to the allies (similar to operation huskey); may would see increased patrols and readiness probably leading to higher (but not decisive) casualties in the airborne and first wave


also; the Germans ran an exercise at some point in may (my grandfather took part in it) where the Panzer Lehr and a couple other divisions sent task forces to stage a mock march to the landing beaches in the pas de calais and normandy as a field exercise; if allied intel and or the french resistance fails to pick this up; the airborne might run in to a few tank companies right away which would chew them up badly until later in the morning when airpower could intervene (and even then there was decent low level cloud cover limiting strikes)
 

Cook

Banned
To make up for fewer landing craft, can the Allies land at just 4 beaches, excluding Utah, the westernmost beach?

Montgomery was adamant; the initial landings had to be on as broad a front as possible, if landing craft were not available then they had to be obtained. Two major invasions were cancelled to give him the landing craft he needed, one in the South of France and on in Asia. You would need to have a different commander, someone who’d say, “well, we’ll go with what we have.” Monty’s going to insist you find what he needs.

As Cal said, the weather expected during with the right moon phase and tides is the key. The Moon and tides gives you only a short window each month.
 
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