I am indebted to the sources of information previously credited in the mother https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-the-war-and-immediate-postwar-period.512778/ , and grandmother threads https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...nd-dragoon-happen.512121/page-3#post-22055849. In addition, I must clearly give credit to H P Willmott’s “Grave of a Dozen Schemes for insight on Allied Strategy in Southeast Asia.
Setting the Table – the Pacific Theater as a Backwater: The decision by President Roosevelt and PM Churchill in June 1942 to invade Normandy in 1943 initially had no effect of the course of the war in the Pacific. Substantial reinforcements had been sent in the first seven months of the war – for convenience they are treated in an arc from Alaska to Australia as constituted in June 1942. In Alaska are seven and one-third U.S. Infantry Regiments (IR), the 4th, 37th, 53rd, 58th, 138th, 153rd, 201st and 297th; the latter having only 1st Battalion due to the small size of the Alaska Territorial Guard. Air Power theorists in the U.S. Army Air Force had argued since the early 1930s that troops could be flown from Japan via Alaskan airfields to the west coasts of Canada or the United States; circumventing any naval vessels. These units were therefore dispersed to distant airfields and small ports to prevent any such aerial invasion. To counter the loss of Kiska, 2/197th U.S. IR was sent from Ft Lewis in January 1943 to reinforce the garrison of Adak; and 1/198th U.S. IR to help garrison Cold Bay in February.
In Hawaii, the prewar 24th and 25th U.S. Infantry Divisions lost their two Hawaii Territorial Guard Regiments (the 298th and 299th) when the 34th and 161st U.S. IR en-route to the Philippines were diverted to Hawaii immediately after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The 299th U.S. IR folded into the 298th in July 1942, and most of the Nisei troops were sent to the 442nd U.S. IR in California. The 298th U.S. IR remains an independent unit. The New York National Guard 27th U.S. Infantry Division, the last four regiment “Square” Division was sent to Hawaii in March 1942, the second division sent overseas (after the 34th U.S. Infantry Division in January 1942). When the 27th U.S. Infantry Division converted to a “Triangular” structure, the 108th U.S. IR became independent in September 1942.
The AMERICAL Division arrived in New Caledonia between March and May 1942; the 37th U.S. Infantry Division in Fiji in June; although the division’s 147th U.S. IR had already been sent to Tonga in April. Two battalions of the 129th U.S. IR arrived in Fiji in September 1942 to bring the 37th U.S. Infantry Division back up to strength, but the need to create a third battalion meant the regiment was not fully combat ready until mid-1943. Independent units had also been sent, the 102nd U.S. IR from Connecticut National Guardsmen to Bora Bora in February; the 24th U.S. IR (Colored) to New Hebrides in May; and the Texas Guard’s 112th U.S. Cavalry Regt to New Caledonia in July 1942 to take over installation defense and allow the AMERICAL to train for combat. The horses did not do well in the island climate, and supplying fodder consumed too much shipping space. The 112th Cavalry was converted to infantry in May 1943. The 24th U.S. IR (Colored) was in poor shape, having sent its most experienced officers and NCOs to activate the 366th U.S. IR (February 1941), 367th U.S. IR and 368th U.S. IR (both in March 1941); the regiment was barely back up to full strength with newly minted ROTC and OCS Second Lieutenants filling most company grade positions. Training absorbed the unit’s time for the remainder of 1942.
The USMC also concentrated on defending the lifeline from Hawaii to Australia. As early as January 1942, the 2nd U.S. Marine Division (MARDIV) sent the 2nd U.S. Marine Brigade (MARBDE) to American Samoa with 8th U.S. Marine Regiment (MARREGT) initially as its core. 2nd MARBDE would become the finest jungle warfare training unit in the Second World War; with 7th, 3rd, 22nd and 4th MARREGT passing through by April 1944.
The 41st U.S. (162nd, 164th and 186th U.S. IR) and 32nd U.S. (126th, 127th and 128th U.S. IR) Infantry Divisions reached Australia between April and June 1942; and I U.S. Corps HQ and Corps units in September 1942 to command them. In January 1943, GEN MacArthur activated Sixth U.S. Army to command Allied Forces, but this was strongly opposed by GEN Thomas Blamey, the Australian Chief of Military Forces. Blamey desired to send Australian troops into battle under the command of First Australian Army, with II Australian Corps formed from Militia divisions and I Australian Corps after its return from the Middle East. Despite the amity always presented to the public, Mac Arthur bombarded Roosevelt with complaints about the Australian Government and its senior military leaders; while his subordinates were alternately astounded and outraged at high levels of theft of equipment (especially gasoline) at Australian ports, depots and rail terminals. To a lesser degree, similar problems were encountered in New Zealand, where the U.S. Marines invading Guadalcanal had to load their own equipment aboard transports due to a strike by dockworkers in Wellington. The Australians viewed Americans as “Johnnie Come Lately” to the war, and were unimpressed by American soldiers’ martial prowess. They also bitterly resented Australia being the “Economy of Force” mission to permit a concentration of resources on Roundup. Several riots between American and Australian troops broke out, primarily because of Americans enjoyed higher pay and more elaborate amenities in their post exchanges. In contrast, the RAAF and RNZAF got along well with USAAF commanders and personnel, as did the RAN and RNZN with their USN counterparts.
The Australian Army was geared primarily for defense of their island continent during the first half of 1942. The 2 Australian Armoured, 1 Australian Motor, plus 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 Australian Divisions were mobilized from Militia status in December 1941, but few of their units ever saw combat. 8 Australian Division and its 22, 23 and 27 Australian Bde were lost in Malaya and the Netherlands East Indies with the exception of 2/40 Australian Infantry Battalion (AIB), successfully evacuated from Timor in September 1942. 10 Australian Division was activated in December 1941 but never achieved full strength and disbanded again in August 1942. 11 Australian Division was created to command various units in New Guinea in Oct 1942. The best Australian units fielded were those which served in the Middle East, and returned in early March 1942 (7 Australian Division), between March and July 1942 (6 Australian Division) and in January 1943 (9 Australian Division).
The New Zealand Army was in similar condition. Its best, 2 New Zealand Division would remain in Europe. 1 New Zealand Division was the training and administrative structure for the rest of the Army, and not a combat asset. 4 and 5 New Zealand Divisions were only holding headquarters for militia cavalry and artillery units ill-suited for combat; training cadre; and coast defense units. 3 New Zealand Division had been scheduled for creation in mid-1941, but 8 New Zealand Bde was sent to garrison Fiji in November 1940; and heavy casualties in Crete six months later resulted in another postponement. In October 1942 it was finally created in Fiji with 8 and 14 New Zealand Bde, and the Fiji Bde with four locally recruited infantry battalions. Its artillery and engineer components were never brought to full strength, and while jungle conditions mitigated the former, they vastly exacerbated the latter.
Modified Events June 1942-May 1943. The most notable changes as a result of a combined Roosevelt-Churchill decision to execute Roundup have been mentioned previously. In the Alaskan Theater, Attu Island is not seized. In New Guinea, MacArthur assumes a defensive posture after the capture of Buna and Gona. Although the Fifth U.S. Air Force has not been reinforced with additional units, but has received replacement personnel and aircraft to bring its components up to authorized strength. Therefore, I believe the Japanese will send a reinforcement convoy at some time and a Battle of Bismarck Sea will ensue. In the Solomon Islands, the only change is the substitution of 24th U.S. IR (Colored) for the elements of the 43rd U.S. ID used in landings on the Russel Islands in February 1943. Little resistance was encountered. The use of a black regiment was made only with the greatest of reluctance given the racial attitudes of the time.
In India, the Arakan offensives were not commenced in order to conserve resources. As in New Guinea, small scale probing of enemy positions continues on both sides, but the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) still considers the brutal terrain and lack of infrastructure in western Burma to be a natural limit to further advance. Brigadier Orde Wingate is forming his Chindits, but without British battalions from 70 Division, leaving him with the 3/2 King Edward VII Own Gurkhas Rifles and the understrength 2/Burma Rifles.
Trident Conference; 12-25 May 1943. Churchill’s arrival at Trident in Washington DC will be delayed a few days as he remains in London until the outcome of Roundup’s initial landings is known. In the OTL, Trident discussed future strategy in the Mediterranean, and the first planning for recapturing Burma. Trident resulted in few points of agreement for several reasons. The Americans wanted both British offensive to capture Central and Northern Burma and amphibious landings to reoccupy Rangoon and reopen the supply line to China. The American interest in China was much stronger than the British. The British did not have the amphibious lift, and the Americans would not release it until after an invasion of France. Roundup cuts the Gordian knots.
Having won on their top priority, Roundup, the Americans do make concessions to the British. The Americans will retain enough amphibious lift in Europe to meet British requirements in the Mediterranean. In addition, a firm commitment is made for an offensive in Burma in 1944. The Americans will provide troops for Central and Northern Burma; the British will conduct the amphibious landings necessary. Attention is also paid to the long-suffering, and quite angry Australians. MacArthur is ordered to execute the “Middle Strategy” of returning to the Philippines via the Netherlands East Indies (discussed at Trident) instead of via the northern spine of New Guinea. This will not only remove the Japanese threat to Australia and fulfill MacArthur’s promise to return to the Philippines, but will also threaten Japan’s main source of natural resources. The Americans will also continue their Central Pacific operations.
These are concessions the Americans did not want to make. Roosevelt, his Democratic Party, and considerable numbers of influential citizens were strongly anti-imperialist in sentiments. The Americans did not want to appear in the Pacific to be fighting to restore colonial empires. But in political currency, this is the bill that must be paid for Roundup, and the defeat of Nazi Germany significantly sooner than the estimated date of October 1944 that Roosevelt and Churchill speculated as probable in the OTL Trident Conference.
The decision in favour of Roundup in June 1942 has one tremendous, but intangible benefit. It focused Western Allied strategy in Europe. Trident now has the same effect in focusing efforts on the defeat of Japan.
More as I have time.
Setting the Table – the Pacific Theater as a Backwater: The decision by President Roosevelt and PM Churchill in June 1942 to invade Normandy in 1943 initially had no effect of the course of the war in the Pacific. Substantial reinforcements had been sent in the first seven months of the war – for convenience they are treated in an arc from Alaska to Australia as constituted in June 1942. In Alaska are seven and one-third U.S. Infantry Regiments (IR), the 4th, 37th, 53rd, 58th, 138th, 153rd, 201st and 297th; the latter having only 1st Battalion due to the small size of the Alaska Territorial Guard. Air Power theorists in the U.S. Army Air Force had argued since the early 1930s that troops could be flown from Japan via Alaskan airfields to the west coasts of Canada or the United States; circumventing any naval vessels. These units were therefore dispersed to distant airfields and small ports to prevent any such aerial invasion. To counter the loss of Kiska, 2/197th U.S. IR was sent from Ft Lewis in January 1943 to reinforce the garrison of Adak; and 1/198th U.S. IR to help garrison Cold Bay in February.
In Hawaii, the prewar 24th and 25th U.S. Infantry Divisions lost their two Hawaii Territorial Guard Regiments (the 298th and 299th) when the 34th and 161st U.S. IR en-route to the Philippines were diverted to Hawaii immediately after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The 299th U.S. IR folded into the 298th in July 1942, and most of the Nisei troops were sent to the 442nd U.S. IR in California. The 298th U.S. IR remains an independent unit. The New York National Guard 27th U.S. Infantry Division, the last four regiment “Square” Division was sent to Hawaii in March 1942, the second division sent overseas (after the 34th U.S. Infantry Division in January 1942). When the 27th U.S. Infantry Division converted to a “Triangular” structure, the 108th U.S. IR became independent in September 1942.
The AMERICAL Division arrived in New Caledonia between March and May 1942; the 37th U.S. Infantry Division in Fiji in June; although the division’s 147th U.S. IR had already been sent to Tonga in April. Two battalions of the 129th U.S. IR arrived in Fiji in September 1942 to bring the 37th U.S. Infantry Division back up to strength, but the need to create a third battalion meant the regiment was not fully combat ready until mid-1943. Independent units had also been sent, the 102nd U.S. IR from Connecticut National Guardsmen to Bora Bora in February; the 24th U.S. IR (Colored) to New Hebrides in May; and the Texas Guard’s 112th U.S. Cavalry Regt to New Caledonia in July 1942 to take over installation defense and allow the AMERICAL to train for combat. The horses did not do well in the island climate, and supplying fodder consumed too much shipping space. The 112th Cavalry was converted to infantry in May 1943. The 24th U.S. IR (Colored) was in poor shape, having sent its most experienced officers and NCOs to activate the 366th U.S. IR (February 1941), 367th U.S. IR and 368th U.S. IR (both in March 1941); the regiment was barely back up to full strength with newly minted ROTC and OCS Second Lieutenants filling most company grade positions. Training absorbed the unit’s time for the remainder of 1942.
The USMC also concentrated on defending the lifeline from Hawaii to Australia. As early as January 1942, the 2nd U.S. Marine Division (MARDIV) sent the 2nd U.S. Marine Brigade (MARBDE) to American Samoa with 8th U.S. Marine Regiment (MARREGT) initially as its core. 2nd MARBDE would become the finest jungle warfare training unit in the Second World War; with 7th, 3rd, 22nd and 4th MARREGT passing through by April 1944.
The 41st U.S. (162nd, 164th and 186th U.S. IR) and 32nd U.S. (126th, 127th and 128th U.S. IR) Infantry Divisions reached Australia between April and June 1942; and I U.S. Corps HQ and Corps units in September 1942 to command them. In January 1943, GEN MacArthur activated Sixth U.S. Army to command Allied Forces, but this was strongly opposed by GEN Thomas Blamey, the Australian Chief of Military Forces. Blamey desired to send Australian troops into battle under the command of First Australian Army, with II Australian Corps formed from Militia divisions and I Australian Corps after its return from the Middle East. Despite the amity always presented to the public, Mac Arthur bombarded Roosevelt with complaints about the Australian Government and its senior military leaders; while his subordinates were alternately astounded and outraged at high levels of theft of equipment (especially gasoline) at Australian ports, depots and rail terminals. To a lesser degree, similar problems were encountered in New Zealand, where the U.S. Marines invading Guadalcanal had to load their own equipment aboard transports due to a strike by dockworkers in Wellington. The Australians viewed Americans as “Johnnie Come Lately” to the war, and were unimpressed by American soldiers’ martial prowess. They also bitterly resented Australia being the “Economy of Force” mission to permit a concentration of resources on Roundup. Several riots between American and Australian troops broke out, primarily because of Americans enjoyed higher pay and more elaborate amenities in their post exchanges. In contrast, the RAAF and RNZAF got along well with USAAF commanders and personnel, as did the RAN and RNZN with their USN counterparts.
The Australian Army was geared primarily for defense of their island continent during the first half of 1942. The 2 Australian Armoured, 1 Australian Motor, plus 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 Australian Divisions were mobilized from Militia status in December 1941, but few of their units ever saw combat. 8 Australian Division and its 22, 23 and 27 Australian Bde were lost in Malaya and the Netherlands East Indies with the exception of 2/40 Australian Infantry Battalion (AIB), successfully evacuated from Timor in September 1942. 10 Australian Division was activated in December 1941 but never achieved full strength and disbanded again in August 1942. 11 Australian Division was created to command various units in New Guinea in Oct 1942. The best Australian units fielded were those which served in the Middle East, and returned in early March 1942 (7 Australian Division), between March and July 1942 (6 Australian Division) and in January 1943 (9 Australian Division).
The New Zealand Army was in similar condition. Its best, 2 New Zealand Division would remain in Europe. 1 New Zealand Division was the training and administrative structure for the rest of the Army, and not a combat asset. 4 and 5 New Zealand Divisions were only holding headquarters for militia cavalry and artillery units ill-suited for combat; training cadre; and coast defense units. 3 New Zealand Division had been scheduled for creation in mid-1941, but 8 New Zealand Bde was sent to garrison Fiji in November 1940; and heavy casualties in Crete six months later resulted in another postponement. In October 1942 it was finally created in Fiji with 8 and 14 New Zealand Bde, and the Fiji Bde with four locally recruited infantry battalions. Its artillery and engineer components were never brought to full strength, and while jungle conditions mitigated the former, they vastly exacerbated the latter.
Modified Events June 1942-May 1943. The most notable changes as a result of a combined Roosevelt-Churchill decision to execute Roundup have been mentioned previously. In the Alaskan Theater, Attu Island is not seized. In New Guinea, MacArthur assumes a defensive posture after the capture of Buna and Gona. Although the Fifth U.S. Air Force has not been reinforced with additional units, but has received replacement personnel and aircraft to bring its components up to authorized strength. Therefore, I believe the Japanese will send a reinforcement convoy at some time and a Battle of Bismarck Sea will ensue. In the Solomon Islands, the only change is the substitution of 24th U.S. IR (Colored) for the elements of the 43rd U.S. ID used in landings on the Russel Islands in February 1943. Little resistance was encountered. The use of a black regiment was made only with the greatest of reluctance given the racial attitudes of the time.
In India, the Arakan offensives were not commenced in order to conserve resources. As in New Guinea, small scale probing of enemy positions continues on both sides, but the Imperial Japanese Army (IJA) still considers the brutal terrain and lack of infrastructure in western Burma to be a natural limit to further advance. Brigadier Orde Wingate is forming his Chindits, but without British battalions from 70 Division, leaving him with the 3/2 King Edward VII Own Gurkhas Rifles and the understrength 2/Burma Rifles.
Trident Conference; 12-25 May 1943. Churchill’s arrival at Trident in Washington DC will be delayed a few days as he remains in London until the outcome of Roundup’s initial landings is known. In the OTL, Trident discussed future strategy in the Mediterranean, and the first planning for recapturing Burma. Trident resulted in few points of agreement for several reasons. The Americans wanted both British offensive to capture Central and Northern Burma and amphibious landings to reoccupy Rangoon and reopen the supply line to China. The American interest in China was much stronger than the British. The British did not have the amphibious lift, and the Americans would not release it until after an invasion of France. Roundup cuts the Gordian knots.
Having won on their top priority, Roundup, the Americans do make concessions to the British. The Americans will retain enough amphibious lift in Europe to meet British requirements in the Mediterranean. In addition, a firm commitment is made for an offensive in Burma in 1944. The Americans will provide troops for Central and Northern Burma; the British will conduct the amphibious landings necessary. Attention is also paid to the long-suffering, and quite angry Australians. MacArthur is ordered to execute the “Middle Strategy” of returning to the Philippines via the Netherlands East Indies (discussed at Trident) instead of via the northern spine of New Guinea. This will not only remove the Japanese threat to Australia and fulfill MacArthur’s promise to return to the Philippines, but will also threaten Japan’s main source of natural resources. The Americans will also continue their Central Pacific operations.
These are concessions the Americans did not want to make. Roosevelt, his Democratic Party, and considerable numbers of influential citizens were strongly anti-imperialist in sentiments. The Americans did not want to appear in the Pacific to be fighting to restore colonial empires. But in political currency, this is the bill that must be paid for Roundup, and the defeat of Nazi Germany significantly sooner than the estimated date of October 1944 that Roosevelt and Churchill speculated as probable in the OTL Trident Conference.
The decision in favour of Roundup in June 1942 has one tremendous, but intangible benefit. It focused Western Allied strategy in Europe. Trident now has the same effect in focusing efforts on the defeat of Japan.
More as I have time.