Assume that Overlord fails, but Dragoon goes through. Logistically Dragoon is more difficult to support as it is further away, no pipeline under th channel for gas etc. Progress ATL is slower than OTL and the Germans can divert some of the effort in France OTL to the eastern front. Also no Falaise pocket, and no stupendous waste of resources that was the Ardennes offensive. No matter what happens in France the Allied effort in Italy is going nowhere fast and may even be robbed to support Dragoon follow-up. With more resources to move east, the Russians can be slowed. Also, absent Overlord the V-weapons have a greater selection of launching sites so some bombing effort will go there that might have been directed at the Reich itself.
No need to divert many B-29's from Japan. A few go to England to join in the raids, as well as the "silverplated" ones. Odds are the first bomb might be dropped at night, but a German city goes away.
With the Allies in France & the Russians still east of Berlin in August 1945 the dividing lines probably remain very much the same as Russian logistics simply will not allow them to move west past Berlin to Denmark, Holland & the Rhine as fast as the US/UK can move east. The Elbe still is the divider.