D. B. W. I. What if the Kellogg Briand failed?

The celebration last year of the 80 years of world peace made me ponder the question, what if the Kellogg Briand Treaty failed? Would the example of the Great War itself have taught humanity the senselessness of war? If wars had followed, who would have been the aggressors? What effect would those war have had on geopolitics? Could there have been another war as destructive as the World War? What advances in military technology would have followed? After the devastation caused by poison gas and the machine gun, it frightening to think of what new horrors would have been possible
 
I read something awhile back about the nasty border dispute between Paraguay and Bolivia during the 1930s. If that exploded into war, this usually neglected region have been the focus of the otherwise peaceful world´s attention.
 
I think the Glorious Duce might have had greater ambitions than those of real life. Rather than being content with control over the Italian peninsula and the colonies in East Africa, I think he may have attempted to expand the Kingdom, perhaps starting with Dalmatia south of Istria, then moving on to Crete and Cyprus, and perhaps even attacking Istanbul in hopes of unifying the nation as a third Rome. Whether these territorial ambitions would have sullied his reputation remain to be unknown.

I don't know if Rosa Luxembourg and the communists would have been able to gain any influence at all in Germany. If the rest of the world were just as bellicose as before Kellogg Briand, perhaps the Reich would have militarized. Maybe they would have attempted to reconquer Alsace-Lorraine. I don't know what else the Germans really would have a legitimate claim to, however, so I doubt the Germans would be able to do much.

Whether or not the African colonies would still be under the control of the Europeans is unknown. If war had not been abandoned, I doubt the peaceful liberation of Africa beginning with Italian Somaliland in 1942 would have been possible.

I do wonder, however, if it would have been better for the blacks in South Africa. While the whites did grant them limited representation in the parliament, perhaps a brutal war would have permitted blacks to gain more power in South Africa. While they are far from second class citizens now, I wonder if they could have earned even more rights than they did in our time.

Any thoughts?
 
Well, I've just flown back from a very dull meeting at the offices of the Commonwealth Market Secretariat in Singapore. Nothing like a long flight to gve you time to think. If the Empire had had to fight another major war in Europe then I doubt we would have had the transition from Empire to Federal Commonwealth.

Even more worrying if the Continentals hadn't built up the Franco-German Jonit Boards on Coal, Iron and Steel into the Union of Europe I think you might have seen a communist or fascist takeover.

That would be bad!
 
I don't know if Rosa Luxembourg and the communists would have been able to gain any influence at all in Germany. If the rest of the world were just as bellicose as before Kellogg Briand, perhaps the Reich would have militarized. Maybe they would have attempted to reconquer Alsace-Lorraine. I don't know what else the Germans really would have a legitimate claim to, however, so I doubt the Germans would be able to do much.

You kidding? A lot of people forget it looking at the modern maps, but Austria and Danzig were "independant" back then, and that caused a lot of ill feeling between Germany and Poland/Italy. By contrast, Alsace was never a big issue in post-war Germany.
 
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