Czechslovakia defies Munich

Other similar threads, only two in the forum history:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-czechoslovakia-defies-the-munich-agreement.99023/
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...he-sudetenland-and-goes-to-war-anyway.420552/

Any timelines that already exist that I just failed to find by searching? I heard there are some Czechslovakia TV shows made about this. Do they have English subtitles? Are they realistic? Are there any Czech books?

Definite changes:

Any resistance damages the German war machine, and in particular the assets they acquired from Czechslovakia.
Hitler hasn't broken any deal, as both France and Britain indicated to Czechslovakia if they refused they would fight alone.

Potential changes:
Hungary and Poland who pressured CSR for territory anyway will seek it. Hungary wanted all of Slovakia and they might go to war for it. Romania and Yugoslavia had told Hungary they wouldn't allow this but if France and Britain are doing nothing then for Romania and Yugoslavia attacking Hungary might seem to risk war with Germany and Italy. Though Hitler wanted Slovakia for himself he may reason that it is worth it to involve Hungary.
The Soviets who mobilised and were willing to defend were refused access by Poland and Romania so the only help will be by air.
Slovakian independents may desert the army once it actually comes to war.
The Sudeten German may also do so, especially if the press favours Germany (British press almost certainly will) and aid the invaders which I haven't seen mentioned at all.

Depending on how the war goes Germany will appear weaker or stronger internationally which will change Poland. They will also have more experience but be materially weaker. Poland may not be protected by the allies, will they give up Danzig? Then what?

Militarily there are many possibilities:
Germany vs Czechslovakia
Germany and Hungary vs Czechslovakia
Germany vs Czechslovakia, Czechslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia vs Hungary
Plus all the possibilities involving the allies and the Soviets and Poland.

What's the most likely military scenario?

And in terms of outcome I'd like to focus on Germany alone and Germany joined by some Hungarian aggression. How long does the war take? Does Hungary involvement shortern the war at all? Assuming victory what is the peace conference like with just Germany and with Germany and Hungary? How much does Poland get, same as otl in both cases?

Ethnic map of Hungary in 1910 (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipe...map_of_hungary_1910_by_teleki_carte_rouge.jpg)
 
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https://winstonchurchill.org/publications/finest-hour/finest-hour-162/munich-timeline/

Following this timeline until

30 September where Czechoslovakia refuses to agree to the demands

International pressure increases and the Friekorp raids begin increasing, including an assassination attempt on Benes. Chamberlain asks Hitler to wait for the 10th so he can try to convince Czechoslovakia to change their position.

Only the Soviets stand up for Czechoslovakia while Britain and France wash their hands. Hitler is delighted since he wanted to march into Prague and the generals planning a coup back down when its clear France and Britain won't get involved.

Hungary and Poland ramp up their own mobilisation looking to snatch territory from Czechoslovakia. Hitler initially tells Hungary that they can't annex all of Slovakia as he doesn't want the return of a Hungary and Polish border. He will change his mind before the end of the war.

Mussolini supports Hitler and pressures Yugoslavia and Romania to leave Hungary alone. They weren't willing to declare if it means German or Italian involvement.

The Soviets had supplied a lot of aid to Czechoslovakia in the build up to the end of the ultimatum.

During the build up Germany withdraw most of their Luftwaffe from the Spainish Civil War to aid against Czechoslovakia.

10 October On this day the Munich Accord gave the Sudetenland to Germany, and Hitler orders Fall Grun. Chamberlain personally requested Hitler not to bomb Prague which he agrees to. The international community is mostly on Hitler's side as Czechslovakia is seen to be keeping Germans from their Fatherland. Unfortunately for Czechslovakia to let them go would make their country defenceless and massively weakened so they decided to defend it.

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The Czechoslovakian defence is strong but they struggle with partisan issues and they left little in Slovakia.

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At the very least the Sodka factories are going to be rigged to blow and the national gold reserves evacuated which will really hurt the Germany war economy
 
At the very least the Sodka factories are going to be rigged to blow and the national gold reserves evacuated which will really hurt the Germany war economy

If the soviet were the only nation supporting them would the government and the gold flee through Romania to the Soviets? This could be difficult if Czechia gets cut from Slovakia early in the fight
 
Would the Italians indeed support Hitler? Is that a definite? Mussolini was if anything, mercurial, and could change his mind without a lot of notice. Give him the chance to play the hero, and he may just go for it.
 
Would the Italians indeed support Hitler? Is that a definite? Mussolini was if anything, mercurial, and could change his mind without a lot of notice. Give him the chance to play the hero, and he may just go for it.

After Austria Mussolini behaved quite favourably to Hitler. I can't see any reason why he would go back on the Munich conference when France and Britain hadn't. Certainly on their train ride to Munich he raised no issues with the possibility of military action by Germany

If he does then does he invade Austria? Not sure what the international reaction would be but I'm pretty sure Hitler could still handle the Italian army though it might mean abandoning the other borders
 
If war breaks out and Hungary and France are on opposite sides, you can bet your behinds Romania will DoW Hungary.

Furthermore, Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey, who had defence agreements with Romania, will all likely mobilize, making any potential Bulgarian attack on Romania a non-starter and allowing the latter to focus on Hungary. Thus, any Hungarian invasion into Slovakia is going to be pretty short-lived.
 
Or as Czech author Drnek went in his book about 1938.

Army in almost coup push Benes for defense but keeps him as President. Czechoslovakia is federalized, which makes Slovaks happy. Not like Czechoslovakia didn’t had support in Slovakia during Munich.
Areas with minorities are made autonomous regions which blunts German propaganda in the west.
Communist Gottwald is made “minister of informations” read propaganda.

Czechoslovak air force aware of likelihood of loosing most of its heavy bombers despite dispension on small hidden airfields will be lost committs them to attack against German airfields in Silesia and Austria and railway station and bridge in Austrian Linz.
Czechoslovakia claims state of war already exists since last around September 1938 when SS men were noticed on Czechoslovak territory supporting Freikorps insurgents.

Germans attacks, Czechoslovaks retreat. Northern pincer do not manage to cross border mountains. However southern pincer is eventually isolated before Brno when dams are exploded when German infantry is crossing river.

Czechoslovak start to get I-16s and SB-2s from Soviet Union which are landing in Slovakia - airports there were actually ready for something like that.
Romanians just claim they didn’t noticed any overflights of their territory- no radar no knowledge.


Czechoslovak 3rd army afterwards attacks into Austria and quickly captures Vienna. Isolated and un supplied Guderian capitulates before Brno.

Instead of stopping and preparing for second push which would finish Czechoslovakia - Czechoslovak 1st army defending west has large casualties and is slowly retreating - after loss of Vienna Hitler loose his cool and goes to rage. After threatening his generals and ordering head on attacks goes to his office where after rant another man loose his cool - his military adjutant shot him dead and calls plotters who are still undecided that Hitler is dead.

In between In Tesin area polish general there is cheated by German commando in Czechoslovak uniforms to attack without consulting Warsaw or without proper investigation of incident.
Freikorps in area switch sides to deffend against Poles which Czechoslovak propaganda greatly use.

Soviet union based on Czechoslovak Soviet treaty attack Poland.


End of story by Mr Drnek - who seems by the book or books doesn’t like Benes too much.
 
What partisans?

Sudeten Germans (organised by Nazis experienced in doing the same in Austria and indeed Germany), Slovak nationalists and Magyar and Poles on parts of Slovak border.

I appreciate your summary of the book though it seems incredibly unlikely that the result of Germans given a free hand to destroy Czechoslovakia would result in Hitler's coup.
 
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Czechoslovakia had pretty good defence positions, was pretty good at counter-insurgency against the Sudetengermans and even the Slovaks supported a defensive war
 
My guess is if the Cezchs resists then France joins in. Fundamental French policy was one of opposition to German resistance, however the lack of international support had divided the French government since the end of of the Ruhr occupation in 1924. The nazi led resurgence of German militarism caused the French policy to began shifting back towards a more activist stance. It was a uphill battle as France still lacked major international support. The final split with the former Entente member Italy over its African adventure was a major set back for a activist policy, the lack of support from Chamberlains government was a serious blow. Then there was the negative influence of Gamelin & Vuellimien, who argued the French Army & Air Forces could not fight the four year old Wehrmacht.

In any case the occupation of Prague in March 1939 was a killing blow for the 'isolationist' or passive factions in the French government. Had the Cezchs resisted in 1938 the bankruptcy of French previous appeasement or inactivism would have been made clear. Each week the Cezchs resisted would have brought the interventionists in the government closer to power and action.

Even if France still fails to intervene the example of German militarism accelerate French military reform. Its likely further stalling and procrastination by Gamelin leads to his early replacement and and a general purge of the Great War leaders at the top. A six month advance in this is not a game changer, but it would help in the overall scheme. I suspect the same occurs in Poland, with a more active preparation for war, & at the least more training for the Polish reserves and a better defense plan. This Cezch war as is popularly conceived illustrates the potential of massed combined arms mechanized corps, so more folks are taking that threat seriously sooner.
 
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The Sudeten German Party set up a partisan organization called the Sudetendeustches Freikorps, which from 17 September 1938 to 30 September 1938, carried out attacks on the border between Germany and the Sudetenland. This group was supported, both materially and financially, by Germany.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetendeutsches_Freikorps
Well, active in Sudetentland and basically defeated before Munich except As region which was too much exposed from 3 sides - sticking to Germany.

Though honestly I was assuming he was referring to partisans in Slovakia with “weak” 1 army there.

As to Slovakia there was not just 3rd army but also parts of reserves.
 
Sudeten Germans (organised by Nazis experienced in doing the same in Austria and indeed Germany), Slovak nationalists and Magyar and Poles on parts of Slovak border.

I appreciate your summary of the book though it seems incredibly unlikely that the result of Germans given a free hand to destroy Czechoslovakia would result in Hitler's coup.
Slovak nationalists mobilized without problem and were willing to defend. Hungarian “partisans” OTL were mostly recruited in... Hungary. Local Hungarians were willing to sit it out.

There was not significant Polish minority within Slovakia but significant Slovak minority in Poland.

Slovak nationalists were more willing to go to war with Hungary and Poland in 1938 then Prague.;)

Even Tiso after Munich was asking Prague to oppose Hungarian and Polish demands!
 
Slovak nationalists mobilized without problem and were willing to defend. Hungarian “partisans” OTL were mostly recruited in... Hungary. Local Hungarians were willing to sit it out.

There's an absolutely massive difference between mobilising when France and Britain defend you versus with the morale after Munich.

There's also a difference between mobilising and fighting. Who will fight in Czechia when Hungarians invade the homeland?

There was not significant Polish minority within Slovakia but significant Slovak minority in Poland.

Sure there will be very localised and I imagine Czechoslovakia will immediately give up all polish claims

Slovak nationalists were more willing to go to war with Hungary and Poland in 1938 then Prague.;)

Of course, their land is the one being threatened. Against Germany however its the reverse.

Even Tiso after Munich was asking Prague to oppose Hungarian and Polish demands!

A Slovak asks Prague to fight against demands on Slovak territory?
 
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