Czechoslovakia refuses to surrender (1938)

Was the former Austrian border protected as well?
Not as strongly but there were already some defenses, even if mostly light fronts, and that was the one area where Czechoslovaks planned to have a numerical superiority. Otherwise also the USSR was itself angry at having been excluded in the Munich conference and Stain later said, he'd have supported czechoslovakia though how much support the USSR could've given. But at the very least, it might've prevented the M-R pact. At the same time Romania was a Czechoslovak ally, so it might've given Soviet troops free passage.
 
I personally believe that if only numbers, terrain, and the competence of the leadership were calculated then it would've been a clear stalemate by the hands of both the Czechs and the Germans. However, the competing minority populations of Czechoslovakia, the lack of morale in Czechoslovakian High Command, and the lack of faith in the French/UK governments to support the Czechoslovakian government would most likely lead to inaction or delayed reactions. This would mean that the Czechoslovakian resistance would be significant and likely lead to either: a full German victory occurring quickly via a rush for key strategic areas that would force the Czechoslovakian military to capitulate OR a grueling stalemate that would occur after months/years between two fully mobilized nations with Germany coming ahead in the long-term due to numerical and material superiority.

I believe that Army General Jan Syrový summarized this fairly effectively.
Reporter: From your rank of General inspector you have the perfect overview about our army, about it’s strength and war potential. Can we defend by our own?
General Syrový: Alone we have not any chance to success. It was clear view of the whole our command staff. I know, the enthusiasm of people was great, soldiers want go to fight, but we can’t lead the peoples to slaughter.
Reporter: What was your opinion, when France and England throw us to Hitler?
General Krejèí: I realize, that if we stay alone, we can defend ourselves for some time, how the Fortune will patronize, but we can’t win.
 
the lack of morale in Czechoslovakian High Command
Perhaps in the high command but the domestic and soldier morale was very high. There were protests against signing the agreement and not going to war, and there was a popular coup as the people demanded the government's resignation, so not sure if morale would really be a factor since there wouldnt be for example anti-war strikes by the people (well the Germans yes), but not the others. And as for the competing minorities, yes though it was really only a large part of the Germans, which even though it was a majority also wasn't all as some later fled, namely socialists, communists, Jews, etc. and the Slovaks before March 1939 were pretty loyal, depending on if the Hungarians join, also the Hungarians, although yeah the Germans were a large minority
 
So Czechoslovakia refuses to surrender the Sudetenland in 1938 and decides to fight for it. What happens next? Do the Germans still invade it? Do France and Britain defend Czechoslovakia or do they see it as a reason to keep out of war? What is the likeliest result of such conflict if it were to break out?

I think the chances that France and Britain come in would have increased with every week the Czechs held out.
 

Zagan

Donor
Yeah I did find that unlikely, even if they were allied with Czechoslovakia, although would they turn a blind eye to soviet transports
Not a chance in hell. No Red Army soldiers or airplanes would ever cross the Nistru / Dniester unless they invade Romania.

The Romanian Crown Council (King, Government, Army, Church) discussed the issue and unanimously decided the above.
 
Not a chance in hell. No Red Army soldiers or airplanes would ever cross the Nistru / Dniester unless they invade Romania.

The Romanian Crown Council (King, Government, Army, Church) discussed the issue and unanimously decided the above.
Ah and Poland will even more obviously not allow them given Romania at least has good relations with Czechoslovakia, unlike Poland.
 
Perhaps in the high command but the domestic and soldier morale was very high.
An issue that you'll run into in war is that without a confident high command, the war is lost. Morale of the population, enlisted, and officer corps must be maintained or else one of the factors will penalize the rest.

However, I agree with you with the rest to some extent. The minorities although being sizable wouldn't necessarily mean an instantaneous difference in win/loss. However, it was one of the key reasons that junior officers were informed that their current situation was untenable and that some of their own fellow officers/soldiers could not be trusted.

Although @Adamgerd, I do want to ask if you believe my original consensus is incorrect or if it requires any revising?
 
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