Czechoslovakia refuses to surrender (1938)

So Czechoslovakia refuses to surrender the Sudetenland in 1938 and decides to fight for it. What happens next? Do the Germans still invade it? Do France and Britain defend Czechoslovakia or do they see it as a reason to keep out of war? What is the likeliest result of such conflict if it were to break out?
 
So Czechoslovakia refuses to surrender the Sudetenland in 1938 and decides to fight for it. What happens next? Do the Germans still invade it? Do France and Britain defend Czechoslovakia or do they see it as a reason to keep out of war? What is the likeliest result of such conflict if it were to break out?
France and Britain probably don't get involved. Czechoslovakia does enough damage to the German army and Germans do enough damage to the the Czech equipment that they inherited historically that Germany won't be able for war in the west in 39/40 and France and the UK will be outbuildings the Germans after that. We will probably see a German economic crash in 1940 as banks call in German loans which was fueling the German economic machine in the 30s.
 
France and Britain probably don't get involved. Czechoslovakia does enough damage to the German army and Germans do enough damage to the the Czech equipment that they inherited historically that Germany won't be able for war in the west in 39/40 and France and the UK will be outbuildings the Germans after that. We will probably see a German economic crash in 1940 as banks call in German loans which was fueling the German economic machine in the 30s.

How long does Czechoslovakia hold on?
 
… it could even end in a stalemate. Germany bleeding to (death) on the Czech forts and Czech factories bombed into rubble.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
It was said that the weather during late 1938 was bad, which could have reduced Luftwaffe's effectiveness.
 
Considering that Hitler bombed Rotterdam to rubble when the invasion of the Netherlands took longer than a day... won't he try to bomb the Czechoslovakian cities worse than Rotterdam or does he not have the airforce ready yet?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
...
We will probably see a German economic crash in 1940 as banks call in German loans which was fueling the German economic machine in the 30s.
Have ... problems to follow argument.

1. Remember ? It's WAR and martial law in Germany what might give abundant possibilities to cut off any kind of call for "demands" by private enterprises, at least postpone any payments by the goverment if not cancelling them at all.
2. MUCH loot to offer to the industry for cancelling previous debts. The Wehrmacht doesn't need to bomb any industrial areas which will them be given to rthe german industry as "payment".
3. The ... scrupels and self-effacements of OTL for 'showing how mild' the nazis could be would ITTL not appear and the country would be looted on all levels much heavier than OTL in the first 1 - 2 years of occupation, giving kinda short-time 'boost' of matters (though ofc long-term compulsion is rather contra-productive).
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Considering that Hitler bombed Rotterdam to rubble when the invasion of the Netherlands took longer than a day... won't he try to bomb the Czechoslovakian cities worse than Rotterdam or does he not have the airforce ready yet?
... and where do you have this ... story from ? ... aside from the usual from all sides assumed Hitler-madness.

AFAIK the Luftwaffe was kinda 'stunned' themself by the effect their bombing had due to the amount of wood used in buildings and the yet not really known effect of incendary bombs on large scale usage.
 
Have ... problems to follow argument.

1. Remember ? It's WAR and martial law in Germany what might give abundant possibilities to cut off any kind of call for "demands" by private enterprises, at least postpone any payments by the goverment if not cancelling them at all.
Not just German banks, international ones too
2. MUCH loot to offer to the industry for cancelling previous debts. The Wehrmacht doesn't need to bomb any industrial areas which will them be given to rthe german industry as "payment".

The did this in otl too. Still the economy was barely hanging on in 1939.
3. The ... scrupels and self-effacements of OTL for 'showing how mild' the nazis could be would ITTL not appear and the country would be looted on all levels much heavier than OTL in the first 1 - 2 years of occupation, giving kinda short-time 'boost' of matters (though ofc long-term compulsion is rather contra-productive).
True enough.
 
Considering that Hitler bombed Rotterdam to rubble when the invasion of the Netherlands took longer than a day... won't he try to bomb the Czechoslovakian cities worse than Rotterdam or does he not have the airforce ready yet?
Probably they would try. However some sources are claiming shortages of bombs as well as lubricants for Luftwaffe I believe. Prague for example would definitely be heavily bombed.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Not just German banks, international ones too
Which would essentially be dealt with similar ... but much more politly and with more 'negotiating talks' than 'simple' decreeting.
And giving the 'buisness esp. US companies and banks continued in 1939/40 ... I don't see why this wouldn't work IOTL as well.

BTW :
Any numbers of how much of the investment capital in Germany in 1939/40 was NOT domestic ?
Were MEFO- and similar bills ever offered to 'international' investors at all ?
(... and I don't talk about General-Motors owned Opel or Ford which was a company of germnan law also)
The did this in otl too. Still the economy was barely hanging on in 1939.
True, but this was less due to financial reasons (aka account-numbers-juggling) but 'simple' lack of (raw)material and labourforce.
 
True, but this was less due to financial reasons (aka account-numbers-juggling) but 'simple' lack of (raw)material and labourforce.
They couldn't import much from the west because they were out of credit and couldn't borrow any more even after acquiring Czech reserves.
 
We had a long discussion on this about a year or so ago. The consensus was 3 to 6 months.

IIIRC at Nuremburg Manstein said that "there's no doubt that if Czechoslovakia had defended herself, we would've been held up by her fortifications, as we did not have the means to break through."
Keital added "We were extraordinarily happy it did not come to a military operation because...we had always been of the opinion that our means of attack against the Czech frontier fortifications were insufficient. From a purely military point of view we lacked the means for an operation which involved the penetration of the frontier fortifications."
I doubt what was said in the older thread, that Adolf was "irate" because the issue was settled without war. After the sudetenland was taken, Adolf was said to have been impressed by the Czech defenses and said "No wonder my generals urged restraint."
 
Last edited:
youtube:
The Western Tradition #48: The Second World War

This video by Eugen Weber is saying that Czechoslovakia had a good army compared to Poland (please see 2:20 into it).
 
I am personally not of the camp which holds a Czechoslovakian defeat to be a foregone conclusion here. Germany was not the well-oiled military machine they would go on to become. Prague had comparable numbers and quality of troops, I would argue better tanks, and a decent air force.

Not to mention German troops would not have been permitted to simply walk through the Sudetenland mountain passes as a courtesy. Those forts would have been manned and fighting.

I do agree Czechoslovakia very well could have lost. I do not agree they certainly would have lost.
 
Fully agree, Sanderford.

I think we often take it for granted that the Czech would have lost very fast. It is also claimed that the fortifications were incomplete. I read somewhere that the biggest part were complete and that some unfi8nished parts were down to a missing door or a stove. Nothing that would impact the overall fighting capacity.

In essence, Germany could have been held up in the fortifications for a period of time, enabling the Czech army to do something dramatic. Stalemate is my bet.
 
Top