What would a Czarist (not Nicholas) Russia look like after a negotiated end to WW1?
Assume for the sake of argument that Russia lost Poland up to the Bug river and Lithuania up to the Dvina River, plus Kowel south of the Pripyat. They also owed Germany compensation for the loss of German property (factories) in Russia, which Russia appropriated during the war and now owns (that was a term of OTL Brest-Litovsk).
But there is no Brest-Litovsk and the war ends in 1917, preventing the Bolshevik revolution. Germany doesn't lose the war, but rather negotiates a peace without the US entering the war in April (don't worry about the reason for the purpose of this thread).
After the war Nicholas is not brought back to the throne, but rather his more popular uncle becomes Czar. The Duma writes a constitution and the Czar becomes a constitutional monarch.
That said here are some economic issues to consider courtesy of the book "The Economics of WW1":
Pre war (1913) the Russian GDP was 18% of the US GDP.
Germany was 40% of Russia's foreign trade.
During the war more than 2 million Russian soldiers were killed (the normal 1.7 million figure was based on incomplete information) and probably another 1 million Russian civilians died in the war, but many of these were in territory lost ITTL.
20% of pre war industry is lost in the peace deal, but increased industrialization in the interior (mainly Moscow and Petrograd) offsets this.
Billions are owed to foreign debtors, mainly Britain and France, but some US. Russia owes more internally. Russia is also insolvent and her currency has pretty much been totally devalued internationally thanks to selling her gold. Russia also has to deal with about 7% of her population being refugees in 1918.
Also years of war had badly worn down her rail infrastructure, especially in the Ukraine and around Petrograd. Much of the rail cars, locomotives, and rails would need to be replaced at great cost.
Given these handicaps and the fact that British and French investment is over and France probably needing Russia to pay back her loans so that France can rebuild, what happens to the Russian economy in the postwar world?