Cyprus

The crusaders on their way to Palestine during the Third Crusade somehow bypass it. Therefore it is still under Greek rule at the time of the Fourth Crusade. Can it remain independent, or does it join or get conquered by the Nicean Greeks or possibly the Venetians?
 
It seems very unlikely they remain independent. After seizing control Kommenos only ruled the island for six years before the Third Crusade arrived and he seems to have been both terrible at his job and unpopular. He only remained with the support of Sicily as a tool against the Byzantines. Based on his behavior he seems to have had no problem heavily antagonizing people with large armies at his gates so it seems extremely likely he steps far enough out of line that somebody raises an army and invades or the Byzantines somehow depose him and reestablish their rule.
 
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